What's Still On and What's Now Off

[MisterPenguin]

There are non-traditional ways to limit those congregated lines. Not business as usual.

For example:
No queues. Every ride is FP only, with limited FP distribution. So every ride is always a walk-on.

no biometrics at the turnstiles — so no physical touch and getting people through much earlier. Plus, letting people into the park long before open, letting them wander around wide spaces, not congregate on Main Street.

yes, you wouldn’t have perfect social distancing. But you’d significantly reduce “density” compared to normal operations.

throw is things line: all guests in masks at all times. Plus, hand each guest a disinfectant wipe as they board each ride, telling them to wipe down the touch points of the ride as they board.

all these steps would significantly reduce Covid transmission. While still being able to largely operate.

Disney could also sell full body rain ponchos.

 

[The Pho]

Disney could also sell full body rain ponchos.

They just need to operate the parks under 2319 procedures.

 

[EricsBiscuit]

Marathoners don't win if they try to sprint the whole way. Rope-a-dope has shown to be an effective strategy in boxing.

A winning strategy in one venue isn't necessarily a winning strategy in another.

Oh, BTW, as to your football analogy. Pure defense works if you're way ahead. It's called running out the clock.

the problem with the football analogy is that both Uni and WDW can win at the same time. It’s not necessarily a zero sum game. In this case, a rising tide might lift all boats.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Disney could also sell full body rain ponchos.

Imagine trying to get to the bathroom on time

 

[techgeek]

Some more speculation:
1 -- Mandatory masks when not eating
2 -- Mandatory handwash stations at hotel entrances
3 -- Temperature checks when entering resort/park

The 'mandatory mask' thing is, of course, a massive logistical and cultural barrier.

On the cultural front, I've already seen some early suggestions planted in press conferences and interviews that suggest mask use will eventually become much more highly encouraged among our day-to-day lives and make its way into the formal guidance. But unless it's required on a widespread basis (and it may be), adoption is going to be slow going. Clearly they have held off with much mention of it yet because logistically they are out of reach of most of the population and currently must be reserved for those with urgent need.

Logistically I haven't seen even the slightest speculation on how long it will take for mask production / distribution to reach the point where we can reliably buy them off the shelf at Publix for personal use. I imagine it's going to be months, well after this 'first wave' has tapered off. Even if Disney were to procure and provide them for guests and cast, finding a ready supply of literally hundreds of thousands a week to keep the resort stocked would be no small challenge.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

I, for one, applaud DISNEY for their response to this than Universal continuing on and putting profits before people. Just my opinion.

Every construction project in Orlando is going ahead. Yes. They need to be careful but there could be ways working safely.
I saw on the news that construction crews from Lake Buena Vista which is a sub part of Disney laid off their workers.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

Not to mention the golf courses still open for business.

That’s run by the Arnold Palmer golf inc.
Plus golf is viewed as exercise (if you walk )

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

Some posts mentioned virtual queues. How much capacity could the parks run at with virtual queues (with all attractions open, post virus reductions)? It seems they need lines to absorb people and guard against multiplying issues with crowded walkways, shoppers, people staking out restaurant tables killing time, etc more than they already do. And virtual lines would only make all that worse, short of cutting capacity?

DHS is a mess with just the Rise of the Resistance virtual cue. I can’t imagine doing it for a whole park. People would be shoulder to shoulder

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

Marathoners don't win if they try to sprint the whole way. Rope-a-dope has shown to be an effective strategy in boxing.

A winning strategy in one venue isn't necessarily a winning strategy in another.

Oh, BTW, as to your football analogy. Pure defense works if you're way ahead. It's called running out the clock.

Rope-a-dope wasn’t a good, long term strategy. Just look what happened to Muhammad Ali

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

A two hour queue for SDD shows how far ahead WDW is over UO.

A two hour queue with the new, six feet apart guidelines would put the end of the line in the parking lot.

 

[WDW Pro]

I expect Disney Springs to be the first thing to reopen along with the resorts. For the parks, it could be a while, even with modified operating standards.

Based on conversations I've had today, I think that's correct. One of the plans being looked at is the concept of opening Disney Springs, some of the resorts, and EVEN opening Magic Kingdom on a very limited basis with a system in place that allows for resort guests to enter the Magic Kingdom with a reduced admission ticket and then only virtual queue rides available (no queues). Availability to the Magic Kingdom would be extremely restricted. Rides that would be available would be:

• Big Thunder Mountain
• Space Mountain
• Seven Dwarves Mine Train
• Dumbo Spinner
• Aladdin Spinner
• Astro Orbiter
• Barnstormer
• It's a Small World
• Pirates of the Caribbean
• Jungle Cruise
• Peter Pan
• TTA
• Carousel

Again, though, this is one plan, and it's a plan that depends on some non-essential businesses being opened in the June time frame. One of the biggest issues for all of Disney management is that there is such a degree of uncertainty. They are dependent on the federal government, the state government, the local government, the state of the pandemic, and the state of the economy. Simultaneously, the longer this goes, the more reopening a theme park is like opening a theme park for the first time... and that is a ton of work. Each day they run the risk of losing cast members to relocation and new jobs. Certain rides can be turned on after a year with no problem (Dumbo), while other rides will need significant work to restart (Splash Mountain). Some rides have to be maintained daily and cannot sit idle without deterioration (Carousel of Progress), but how long do you do that? I'm told the entirety of Tron will likely have to be resurveyed for change in terrain while sitting idle. Actuaries need guest projections that are 100% guesswork at this point. If this thing goes on too long, you have to retrain cast on everything operations.

You can shut down Walt Disney World for a week. You can shut down Walt Disney World for two weeks. But nothing modern was designed to shut down for months. If you stay down for months, how do you replace 30,000 lost cast members? How do you begin restocking food supplies and when? And how do get crowds even post-pandemic if we're potentially in a depression.

The whole world needs a medicine to work. Disney isn't the only company looking at this level of uncertainty the longer we go. Every day we are in global lock down is exponentially more damaging than the last for our future progress.

 

[disney4life2008]

Based on conversations I've had today, I think that's correct. One of the plans being looked at is the concept of opening Disney Springs, some of the resorts, and EVEN opening Magic Kingdom on a very limited basis with a system in place that allows for resort guests to enter the Magic Kingdom with a reduced admission ticket and then only virtual queue rides available (no queues). Availability to the Magic Kingdom would be extremely restricted. Rides that would be available would be:

• Big Thunder Mountain
• Space Mountain
• Seven Dwarves Mine Train
• Dumbo Spinner
• Aladdin Spinner
• Astro Orbiter
• Barnstormer
• It's a Small World
• Pirates of the Caribbean
• Jungle Cruise
• Peter Pan
• TTA
• Carousel

Again, though, this is one plan, and it's a plan that depends on some non-essential businesses being opened in the June time frame. One of the biggest issues for all of Disney management is that there is such a degree of uncertainty. They are dependent on the federal government, the state government, the local government, the state of the pandemic, and the state of the economy. Simultaneously, the longer this goes, the more reopening a theme park is like opening a theme park for the first time... and that is a ton of work. Each day they run the risk of losing cast members to relocation and new jobs. Certain rides can be turned on after a year with no problem (Dumbo), while other rides will need significant work to restart (Splash Mountain). Some rides have to be maintained daily and cannot sit idle without deterioration (Carousel of Progress), but how long do you do that? I'm told the entirety of Tron will likely have to be resurveyed for change in terrain while sitting idle. Actuaries need guest projections that are 100% guesswork at this point. If this thing goes on too long, you have to retrain cast on everything operations.

You can shut down Walt Disney World for a week. You can shut down Walt Disney World for two weeks. But nothing modern was designed to shut down for months. If you stay down for months, how do you replace 30,000 lost cast members? How do you begin restocking food supplies and when? And how do get crowds even post-pandemic if we're potentially in a depression.

The whole world needs chloroquine or another medicine to work. Disney isn't the only company looking at this level of uncertainty the longer we go. Every day we are in global lock down is exponentially more damaging than the last for our future progress.

This is well said. I still say keep Disney closed. It would not be worth it to visit magic Kingdom with only those attractions open.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

You'll likely be able to get a haircut or sit in Starbucks before they reopen anything that accommodates thousands of people like a sports venues or theme park. Those will probably be the last to resume normal operations in the country.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Based on conversations I've had today, I think that's correct. One of the plans being looked at is the concept of opening Disney Springs, some of the resorts, and EVEN opening Magic Kingdom on a very limited basis with a system in place that allows for resort guests to enter the Magic Kingdom with a reduced admission ticket and then only virtual queue rides available (no queues). Availability to the Magic Kingdom would be extremely restricted. Rides that would be available would be:

• Big Thunder Mountain
• Space Mountain
• Seven Dwarves Mine Train
• Dumbo Spinner
• Aladdin Spinner
• Astro Orbiter
• Barnstormer
• It's a Small World
• Pirates of the Caribbean
• Jungle Cruise
• Peter Pan
• TTA
• Carousel

Again, though, this is one plan, and it's a plan that depends on some non-essential businesses being opened in the June time frame. One of the biggest issues for all of Disney management is that there is such a degree of uncertainty. They are dependent on the federal government, the state government, the local government, the state of the pandemic, and the state of the economy. Simultaneously, the longer this goes, the more reopening a theme park is like opening a theme park for the first time... and that is a ton of work. Each day they run the risk of losing cast members to relocation and new jobs. Certain rides can be turned on after a year with no problem (Dumbo), while other rides will need significant work to restart (Splash Mountain). Some rides have to be maintained daily and cannot sit idle without deterioration (Carousel of Progress), but how long do you do that? I'm told the entirety of Tron will likely have to be resurveyed for change in terrain while sitting idle. Actuaries need guest projections that are 100% guesswork at this point. If this thing goes on too long, you have to retrain cast on everything operations.

You can shut down Walt Disney World for a week. You can shut down Walt Disney World for two weeks. But nothing modern was designed to shut down for months. If you stay down for months, how do you replace 30,000 lost cast members? How do you begin restocking food supplies and when? And how do get crowds even post-pandemic if we're potentially in a depression.

The whole world needs chloroquine or another medicine to work. Disney isn't the only company looking at this level of uncertainty the longer we go. Every day we are in global lock down is exponentially more damaging than the last for our future progress.

Knowing Disney they would still probably charge $80 + tax just to visit those rides and still think it's a "generous" discount.

 

[larryz]

I know this is not Disney related, but just to correct on Boeing. The foreign outsourcing of software was for display software, not the flight control system. The sticking new engines on an old airframe was not driven by bean counters, it was driven by airlines (American being the straw that broke the camel's back) unwilling to wait for a new airframe with more advanced engines. Also, the flight characteristics without the software aren't really "dangerous." Without the software it doesn't meet the specifications of a regulation in a part of the flight envelope that should never be entered into during a flight. Even if it is encountered, it doesn't cause the aircraft to go out of control, it just takes less force than allowed to put it into a stall (which can still be recovered from). The crashes were due to botching the failure analysis of the software.

... and relying on one AoA indicator for MCAS input without a standard data mismatch indicator in the PFD or MFD.

 

[larryz]

Imagine trying to get to the bathroom on time

Where there's a will, there's...

 

[havoc315]

The 'mandatory mask' thing is, of course, a massive logistical and cultural barrier.

On the cultural front, I've already seen some early suggestions planted in press conferences and interviews that suggest mask use will eventually become much more highly encouraged among our day-to-day lives and make its way into the formal guidance. But unless it's required on a widespread basis (and it may be), adoption is going to be slow going. Clearly they have held off with much mention of it yet because logistically they are out of reach of most of the population and currently must be reserved for those with urgent need.

Logistically I haven't seen even the slightest speculation on how long it will take for mask production / distribution to reach the point where we can reliably buy them off the shelf at Publix for personal use. I imagine it's going to be months, well after this 'first wave' has tapered off. Even if Disney were to procure and provide them for guests and cast, finding a ready supply of literally hundreds of thousands a week to keep the resort stocked would be no small challenge.

mask production can ramp up fast. By June, it will be easy to go from shortage to surplus.

Disney can turn up their own production of masks. Masks with Mickey and Pluto faces. Masks come with your magic bands.

cultural attitude becomes irrelevant where it’s simply mandatory — want to be in a Disney Park, wear a mask. With customized “Disney” masks, it can have a somewhat festive spin.

Every good analysis I’ve seen suggests: with super intense hand washing + total mask wearing, you can control the viral spread. At least if it’s under control, those measures can prevent wide spread.
I’d throw in —- hand every guest a disinfectant wipe as they board rides.
Run parks at 50% capacity but all attractions open, so guests aren’t concentrated as densely, rides are mostly walk-on. Perhaps make all popular attractions “boarding group.”
Minimize touch — no cash transactions. No biometric fingerprints. Everything is magic band swipe.
Strong advisory against guests over 60 or 70.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Minimize touch — no cash transactions. No biometric fingerprints. Everything is magic band swipe.

How do either of those things happen?

For 1 - a magic band purchase still requires touch, you have to enter your pin. So that doesn’t even solve the “no touch”

At some point you have to be able to accept cash, I suppose you could have a magic band bank where you can put cash into a Disney gift card and load that onto your band, but that seems like more trouble than it’s worth.

As to the biometric... what do you suggest? ID Check every guest?

 

[Club Cooloholic]

mask production can ramp up fast. By June, it will be easy to go from shortage to surplus.

Disney can turn up their own production of masks. Masks with Mickey and Pluto faces. Masks come with your magic bands.

cultural attitude becomes irrelevant where it’s simply mandatory — want to be in a Disney Park, wear a mask. With customized “Disney” masks, it can have a somewhat festive spin.

Every good analysis I’ve seen suggests: with super intense hand washing + total mask wearing, you can control the viral spread. At least if it’s under control, those measures can prevent wide spread.
I’d throw in —- hand every guest a disinfectant wipe as they board rides.
Run parks at 50% capacity but all attractions open, so guests aren’t concentrated as densely, rides are mostly walk-on. Perhaps make all popular attractions “boarding group.”
Minimize touch — no cash transactions. No biometric fingerprints. Everything is magic band swipe.
Strong advisory against guests over 60 or 70.

I'm sorry but masks are not enough to protect a person. Unless everyone is going to be wearing goggles or face shields and swapping out their gloves after each ride...it's ridiculous to think that will help open parks faster. Imagine the guy in car one on a coaster coughing as it descends downhill.... and yes how will those masks stay on those rides?

 

[Nunu]

... and relying on one AoA indicator for MCAS input without a standard data mismatch indicator in the PFD or MFD.

MCAS did have some design problems, however, overriding this system is as simple as flicking two easily accessible switches to Cut-Out (off). An uncommanded MCAS activation has the exact same symptoms and solutions as a runaway stabilizer trim.

Timely crew action, could've stopped the accident chains in just a few seconds. Though the situation was confusing.

Or so I've been told.