I agree. It's hard to quantify the gains (if any). One theory lately has been that DVC owners were using the resorts as a base to visit other Orlando attractions so they offered the $399 PAP. If Disney wants to keep these people on property longer I think offering a discounted dining plan might help. If I get what I perceive as a good deal and buy the DDP then I'm less likely to eat off property and probably less likely to leave the property as much.
Possibly. But I still believe most DVC members are the type to immerse themselves in the "Disney magic." And Disney's fighting an uphill battle when all villas have a kitchen or kitchenette. Off-site restaurants aren't as much of a threat as that refrigerator & stove.
Admittedly it's hard for me to gauge the habits of hundreds-of-thousands of members. Personally, the most elaborate off-site meal we've ever had in Orlando was at Shoney's as we drove into town. Even when we have a car available--which isn't always--I've never seen the appeal of fighting traffic in and out of the Disney resort area just to save a few bucks on a meal. Are there really a significant number of members who do that over and over again during their stays?
Regardless, I have a slightly different take on the PAP offer. Notice how the timing came about 6 months before the Grand Floridian went on sale. My sense is that the reasons for the PAP discount were twofold:
1) Get members feeling good about DVC. Many folks I encounter on-line seem to be very cynical and jaded, suggesting that Disney doesn't do enough to show appreciation for their business.
Nothing like a $300 discount on an Annual Pass to get people feeling good about DVC again. When people feel good about DVC, they sing its praises to friends & family and even consider a somewhat nonsensical add-on at $150 per point.
2) Help members exhaust their point supply just before the GF goes on sale. As I said earlier, anecdotal evidence suggest there was a dramatic rise in point borrowing as members rushed to cram trips under their PAPs. Suddenly it's late-2013 or 2014 and people start to get the itch. But they're still borrowed to the hilt. Well, as luck would have it, DVC suddenly has the bright, shiny Grand Floridian ready for purchase. Funny how that works.
Granted, DVC could benefit consistently benefit from member goodwill if an offer like this becomes permanent. But I question whether Disney is willing to absorb such a loss going forward just to keep people happy. (And those happy feelings would also fade over time as the "what have you done for me lately" syndrome reappears.)
My expectations are low. Some modest discount (say, $3-4 per day) on the DDP and MYW tickets wouldn't cost them much. They Disneyland AP discounts are virtually nonexistent now.
I'd love to be wrong and see DVC really knock one out of the park. Time will tell.
