What Happens to WDW / Disney Parks during a massive correction / recession?

[MickeyCB]

November of 09, the week leading up to Thanksgiving, was a turning point for our family regarding Disney.
We had always gone maybe every 3 or 4 years at most prior to that. That trip was a big one for us because it was to celebrate my 50th birthday and we decided to splurge on the Poly. Any trip prior to that we couldn't justify the difference in prices for the mods or values to stay deluxe. (Not that I even knew what that meant back then).
Since it was all about me I booked a MK facing room and when I pulled back the curtains and saw Cinderella's Castle I looked at my husband and said "you ain't never getting me back there"!
On my birthday I went over to MK guest services and with ID was given, I think, a $100 gift card that I used to buy a wonderful jacket I still have today.
We were walking up the ramp to Thunder Mountain and a CM was at the top shouting and gesturing, "come on up"! There were no significant lines.
The crowds did surge some on our day of check out, the day before Thanksgiving, but I didn't really understand that a lot of the specialness of our trip was due to the economics of the time.
We loved it so much that we started going annually, eventually bought DVC, and sadly now 13 years later are starting to be disillusioned with Disney's penny pinching, etc. and my husband is making "I don't want to go to Disney" noises. We'll see as the next year or so goes.

 

[SteveAZee]

Promotions and discounts.

I traveled to WDW 2 weeks after 9/11, stayed at All-Star Music, half of the buildings were closed.

I was there about the same time, at OKW. We weren't even sure if the airline lockdown would be lifted by the time we were supposed to leave. The kids didn't tune into what was going on in the world much, and I think we managed to have a good time, despite the possible existential threat of staying at the #1 resort destination and possible next target.

 

[eliza61nyc]

I think for 2022 and 23, the world will be fine. These two years folks have pretty much committed to their trips.
Going forward a lot will depend on a multitude of things. Gas prices seems to be the elephant in the room and the uncertainty around that may make folks skittish about plopping down thousands of dollars for vacations and the stock market tanking may make grandmom, and poppop also think twice, and they are usually the ones flush with disposable cash.

it's very sad though that the only way I see Disney reverse cost on the money grabbing is for a recession to hit it.
I know I brought into dvc in early 2002, right after 9/11. we got really cool tote bags, length of stay passes for everyone on our first stay and a bunch of gc's. lol now, I think they pretty much cut all of that out.

 

[James.Green]

Hopefully change of leadership and a halt on all the new “upgrades”

 

[harryk]

What with current management don't expect much, if anything at all.

 

[CntrlFlPete]

One thing I think WDW did well in '08 and '09 was to bring in foreign tourist. The dollar became 'cheap' for many overseas visitors. I think more of the world is/will be hurting this time so I doubt it would work the same in these times, but they really seemed to bulk up on international visitors back then.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I was there about the same time, at OKW. We weren't even sure if the airline lockdown would be lifted by the time we were supposed to leave. The kids didn't tune into what was going on in the world much, and I think we managed to have a good time, despite the possible existential threat of staying at the #1 resort destination and possible next target.

View attachment 645405

There was an “emergency command” loosely set up at the time for dealing with…umm…global events.

Would it surprise you to know that the threat level was near ZERO by 9/12?? The view at the time - and what has born out since - is it wasn’t of value to do something at a place like wdw…it didn’t send the right message if you were looking for global support…which is money - to be clear.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The shift in investments going on is typical of recession rollout.

Less risky things - bonds and tangibles in particular - are much more attractive due to stability.

On the flip side - tech, “theory” and scams like crypto are being crushed.


Here’s why it matters here: TWDC has always been “stable” and attractive in a storm. Always.
So it is not a great sign that they’ve lost 50% of their price in 18 months “pre-recession”.
It was overblown and not worth it…has been for quite awhile. Bob quit for a reason.

I just heard “we’re entering a new era…immediate and large returns on stocks are ending”

I hope that’s true…unfettered greed always hits the wall at some point. People are STOOPID.

 

[Brad Bishop]

I just heard “we’re entering a new era…immediate and large returns on stocks are ending”

I hope that’s true…unfettered greed always hits the wall at some point. People are STOOPID.

I doubt that's true. Yes, like you, I'd like people to see the big picture and the long-term goals.

Here's the thing: How many times have we heard "we're entering a new era"... "this is the new economy..."

During dot-com it was, "We'll set up a corporation based on VC and give everything away!" If you dared to question that you were greeted with contempt and something along the lines of, "You just don't understand the new economy."

You heard the a similar pitch after 2008 with, "This is the new normal..." Meaning, "just expect life to suck." It sucked for a few years but we were digesting a correction in the market.

I think we're about to digest another correction in the market and it goes a bit further as a country like the USA can't continue to print money, rack up debt, and expect to survive.

"New era???", however, with regards to people not being greedy... I don't buy that. There's an experiment, which you've probably seen, that has people sitting around a table and they're told something along the lines of: "Here's $1. I'll keep doubling it every minute until I run out of money. At that point, you can split all of it. At any point during this exercise any one of you can just claim what's in the middle of the table." The goal here is that they would all be better off by just letting the money accumulate. You end up with two things happening:
1) Somewhere along the lines someone is going to grab the money
2) Everyone else is worried about that "someone" and is thinking of doing the same thing.
... so you never reach a point that would actually be beneficial to everyone.

I'm pretty sure I've seen John Stossel do this.. You can probably find it on YouTube. All I'm saying is that it's in human nature to be greedy and that it's unlikely there's some new revelation that floats about the financial world which is in the form of: Think of the long run!

One other thing along this path: Incentives (bonuses).

They seem pretty straight forward: "You do X and, if the numbers shown you've done X, you'll get a bonus based on X"

The problem is that it encourages short-term thinking. You need to reduce costs. You fire nearly everyone working on a project and then outsource it. Now, on paper, instead of spending $X/yr you're spending $X/2 / year (half). This looks great on paper. You saved the company a ton of money. Go get your bonus.

No one considers the long term effects of this with:
- Now your company has lost some really valuable knowledge. The people that understood the business were let go. Now you have a whole new team of newbies.
- Cheap labor likely means things take longer to get done (less experience, they don't know/understand the business, things get lost in translation, language barriers).. Now your project that was going to take 2 years is looking to take 6, but at 1/2 the cost which, total, means it'll be delivered late and over budget.

...but you saved the company money, which is what they wanted... ...and you got your bonus.

I don't know how you fix that as the bonuses are almost always tied to "lowering costs". To me, it should be tied to performance (getting things done both right and on time - that's a sign of a good manager and a good team). The problem is that the company gets used to a good manager / good team and that become the "norm" for them so, why give out the bonus for doing really well, but not really improving?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I doubt that's true. Yes, like you, I'd like people to see the big picture and the long-term goals.

Here's the thing: How many times have we heard "we're entering a new era"... "this is the new economy..."

During dot-com it was, "We'll set up a corporation based on VC and give everything away!" If you dared to question that you were greeted with contempt and something along the lines of, "You just don't understand the new economy."

You heard the a similar pitch after 2008 with, "This is the new normal..." Meaning, "just expect life to suck." It sucked for a few years but we were digesting a correction in the market.

I think we're about to digest another correction in the market and it goes a bit further as a country like the USA can't continue to print money, rack up debt, and expect to survive.

"New era???", however, with regards to people not being greedy... I don't buy that. There's an experiment, which you've probably seen, that has people sitting around a table and they're told something along the lines of: "Here's $1. I'll keep doubling it every minute until I run out of money. At that point, you can split all of it. At any point during this exercise any one of you can just claim what's in the middle of the table." The goal here is that they would all be better off by just letting the money accumulate. You end up with two things happening:
1) Somewhere along the lines someone is going to grab the money
2) Everyone else is worried about that "someone" and is thinking of doing the same thing.
... so you never reach a point that would actually be beneficial to everyone.

I'm pretty sure I've seen John Stossel do this.. You can probably find it on YouTube. All I'm saying is that it's in human nature to be greedy and that it's unlikely there's some new revelation that floats about the financial world which is in the form of: Think of the long run!

One other thing along this path: Incentives (bonuses).

They seem pretty straight forward: "You do X and, if the numbers shown you've done X, you'll get a bonus based on X"

The problem is that it encourages short-term thinking. You need to reduce costs. You fire nearly everyone working on a project and then outsource it. Now, on paper, instead of spending $X/yr you're spending $X/2 / year (half). This looks great on paper. You saved the company a ton of money. Go get your bonus.

No one considers the long term effects of this with:
- Now your company has lost some really valuable knowledge. The people that understood the business were let go. Now you have a whole new team of newbies.
- Cheap labor likely means things take longer to get done (less experience, they don't know/understand the business, things get lost in translation, language barriers).. Now your project that was going to take 2 years is looking to take 6, but at 1/2 the cost which, total, means it'll be delivered late and over budget.

...but you saved the company money, which is what they wanted... ...and you got your bonus.

I don't know how you fix that as the bonuses are almost always tied to "lowering costs". To me, it should be tied to performance (getting things done both right and on time - that's a sign of a good manager and a good team). The problem is that the company gets used to a good manager / good team and that become the "norm" for them so, why give out the bonus for doing really well, but not really improving?

I’m a skeptical as you are…

But here’s the thing: they “bought” their way out of the covid recession by printing money and giving rich people money they didn’t need to spend. But the price crisis now SHOULD prove to even Gordon gecko why you can’t do it.

The economy is in the weakest position it’s been since Lehman brothers almost wrecked the entire world (most don’t remember or never knew how bad/close that was)…so there’s only so many times you can lie your way out of things

 

[NickMaio]

Us inflation is pushing 9% and Canadian inflation is pushing 7% - - - -
Vacations will start to slow down - - - - the cost of gas alone will start to keep people from traveling.
Hopefully this will effect some consumer positive changes in the WDW and DL area.

 

[NickMaio]

I’m a skeptical as you are…

But here’s the thing: they “bought” there way out of the covid recession by printing money and giving rich people money they didn’t need to spend. But the price crisis now SHOULD prove to even Gordon gecko why you can’t do it.

The economy is in the weakest position it’s been since Lehman brothers almost wrecked the entire world (most don’t remember or never knew how bad/close that was)…so there’s only so many times you can lie your way out of things

Greed makes the world go round and the taxpayers always foot the bill....................Free market my butt.
Looks like we are going around the carousel again..........

 

[Brad Bishop]

I’m a skeptical as you are…

But here’s the thing: they “bought” there way out of the covid recession by printing money and giving rich people money they didn’t need to spend. But the price crisis now SHOULD prove to even Gordon gecko why you can’t do it.

The economy is in the weakest position it’s been since Lehman brothers almost wrecked the entire world (most don’t remember or never knew how bad/close that was)…so there’s only so many times you can lie your way out of things

I'm with you on that.

I think that we're due for a "restructuring of government" after this because, currently:
1) everything is a lie (news just reports propaganda)
2) spending is WAY out of control, and has been for some time.

I'm hoping for a re-alignment back to the truth (fundamentals such as "man" and "woman" being controversial are how lost in the lies we are right now) and a re-alignment to people getting back to work because they have no other choice because the government is out of money.. Same thing with many of the 3-letter agencies hopefully being shut down - because they are wastes of money and the government is finally out of money. You can't just print off $Ts and $Ts and pay the government employees with that worthless paper and expect them to show up for work. At some point they (politicians and the public who elect them) HAVE to stop and say, "We can't afford this".

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm with you on that.

I think that we're due for a "restructuring of government" after this because, currently:
1) everything is a lie (news just reports propaganda)
2) spending is WAY out of control, and has been for some time.

I'm hoping for a re-alignment back to the truth (fundamentals such as "man" and "woman" being controversial are how lost in the lies we are right now) and a re-alignment to people getting back to work because they have no other choice because the government is out of money.. Same thing with many of the 3-letter agencies hopefully being shut down - because they are wastes of money and the government is finally out of money. You can't just print off $Ts and $Ts and pay the government employees with that worthless paper and expect them to show up for work. At some point they (politicians and the public who elect them) HAVE to stop and say, "We can't afford this".

The first two agencies to be shut down should be the SEC and FTC. They’re a joke…henhouses run by the foxes.

They’re supposed to stop financial fraud and monopolies…but they actually are used to promote both.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Us inflation is pushing 9% and Canadian inflation is pushing 7% - - - -
Vacations will start to slow down - - - - the cost of gas alone will start to keep people from traveling.
Hopefully this will effect some consumer positive changes in the WDW and DL area.

I honestly don’t know how travel hasn’t shut down already??

AAA reported record travel again on Memorial Day? I have a hard time believing that can hold when fuel is 2x the price…

A $2 an hour covid raise (if that in actuality) has long been eclipsed by prices. And the “free market” demands it pre-decides what it’s profits will be.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Greed makes the world go round and the taxpayers always foot the bill....................Free market my butt.
Looks like we are going around the carousel again..........

I long dropped paying homage to the pretense of a “free market” long ago…

It’s never been that way. They use government to throw the levers anytime there is even the slightest of hiccups

 

[maemae74]

I'm with you on that.

I think that we're due for a "restructuring of government" after this because, currently:
1) everything is a lie (news just reports propaganda)
2) spending is WAY out of control, and has been for some time.

I'm hoping for a re-alignment back to the truth (fundamentals such as "man" and "woman" being controversial are how lost in the lies we are right now) and a re-alignment to people getting back to work because they have no other choice because the government is out of money.. Same thing with many of the 3-letter agencies hopefully being shut down - because they are wastes of money and the government is finally out of money. You can't just print off $Ts and $Ts and pay the government employees with that worthless paper and expect them to show up for work. At some point they (politicians and the public who elect them) HAVE to stop and say, "We can't afford this".

As a former government contractor I could tell you stories of "fraud, waste and abuse" with in the defense contracting world that would make you physically ill . Not to be out done by elected leaders from both parties when one of their interest doesn't receive a contract and they call for inquiry that cost a ton of time and money!

 

[EPCOT-O.G.]

Us inflation is pushing 9% and Canadian inflation is pushing 7% - - - -
Vacations will start to slow down - - - - the cost of gas alone will start to keep people from traveling.
Hopefully this will effect some consumer positive changes in the WDW and DL area.

Rents are going up 15-25%. Largest line item for many non-homeowners.
Real estate taxes, due to housing boom, going up by low double digits for many.
Gas prices? Almost double where they were.
Groceries/food? Up 10-13%.

At some point the monthly budget can't keep up with that. For what it's worth, I've seen a lot more sale emails from SWA in the last week than I have in the previous months.

 

[Vacationeer]

WDW is holding back some cushion. Bounce back offers, free dining, APs and related deals, etc. All their prices have increased heavily over the last 5+ years and for the last 2 years visitors are mostly paying full price.

When is the bottom coming? Next year or the one after? When will it rebound? WDW can use the deals they're holding back now to shorten their window of pain. They could tread water for a while, depends how abrupt and long the recession hits them.

 

[John park hopper]

Rents are going up 15-25%. Largest line item for many non-homeowners.
Real estate taxes, due to housing boom, going up by low double digits for many.
Gas prices? Almost double where they were.
Groceries/food? Up 10-13%.

At some point the monthly budget can't keep up with that. For what it's worth, I've seen a lot more sale emails from SWA in the last week than I have in the previous months.

Also
Homeowners insurance going up
Stock market losses
Value of the dollar going down (excessive printing of money)
gas and diesel prices are more than double in many areas
Air travel prices gone up
Entertainment will take the biggest hit when the recession hits I don' t Disney being immune