What Happens to WDW / Disney Parks during a massive correction / recession?

[jloucks]

The first two agencies to be shut down should be the SEC and FTC. They’re a joke…henhouses run by the foxes.

They’re supposed to stop financial fraud and monopolies…but they actually are used to promote both.

Monopolies & Oligopolies, all of them, need to go, and go now. They are bad for 99% of the population. The reason we have them, is because they are bad for 99% of the population.

 

[jloucks]

Homeowners insurance going up
Stock market losses
Value of the dollar going down (excessive printing of money)
gas and diesel prices are more than double in many areas
Air travel prices gone up
Entertainment will take the biggest hit when the recession hits I don' t Disney being immune

Don't forget housing prices. This is all going to impact new homeowners severely. ...if there is even such a thing as a new homeowner. Very few can afford houses at 50%+ of their income.

 

[jloucks]

I know we're in uncharted territory, and things are not looking good economically now (with inflation, the markets, etc.) Employment is still holding strong, but a lot of households are feeling the pinch from gas price increases and inflation affecting groceries.

I was not alive, nor did I attend, the parks during previous big economic corrections (1970's oil embargo, early 90's recession, early 00's recession, the Great Recession of the late 00's). I feel like each of those moments posed incredible challenges to the parks (and the tourism industry in general). In some cases, it seems entire parks weren't built (Westcot) or were substantially affected (Animal Kingdom, DCA).

To those that have lived through those times, and studied them, what was the general way in which the parks managed to soldier on during those times?

[This is not meant to minimize the broader societal/economic effects, but rather to get a sense of how something that is considered a luxury manages to maintain itself when money suddenly becomes tight or nonexistent.]

Demand for luxury good falls. Disney is a luxury good.

I think WDW demand is a good indicator of what is really going on in the economy. So long as the parks are packed, things are going well.

...and currently the parks are packed!

 

[John park hopper]

Don't forget housing prices. This is all going to impact new homeowners severely. ...if there is even such a thing as a new homeowner. Very few can afford houses at 50%+ of their income.

My son and daughter in law own the property, they were going to build a small no frills house first house. The cost keep going up while all the background stuff was done make a long story short they were priced out of it. They both work and make a decent income.

 

[John park hopper]

Demand for luxury good falls. Disney is a luxury good.

I think WDW demand is a good indicator of what is really going on in the economy. So long as the parks are packed, things are going well.

...and currently the parks are packed!

Calm before the storm
Consumer debt has been rising dramatically

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Homeowners insurance going up
Stock market losses
Value of the dollar going down (excessive printing of money)
gas and diesel prices are more than double in many areas
Air travel prices gone up
Entertainment will take the biggest hit when the recession hits I don' t Disney being immune

Travel is always the first thing to get crushed…because it’s the most disposable

My sense is the reason it’s not dead already is the “it was unfair to wear a mask” vibe that is still driving it. Not that I don’t at least understand that sentiment. I get it.

But if these economics existed in 2018…Orlando would be begging for you and your annual pass. Don’t doubt that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Demand for luxury good falls. Disney is a luxury good.

I think WDW demand is a good indicator of what is really going on in the economy. So long as the parks are packed, things are going well.

...and currently the parks are packed!

I think that’s wrong because of the unique circumstances. This has never happened before…off the grid a little.

 

[Imhere]

What Happens to WDW / Disney Parks during a massive correction / recession?​

Buy 3 days get 4 free.

 

[maemae74]

Travel is always the first thing to get crushed…because it’s the most disposable

My sense is the reason it’s not dead already is the “it was unfair to wear a mask” vibe that is still driving it. Not that I don’t at least understand that sentiment. I get it.

But if these economics existed in 2018…Orlando would be begging for you and your annual pass. Don’t doubt that.

We make more money now than we we did 3 years ago due to job promotions and have way less disposable income now. There are tons of upper middle class families like us. Anyone who says, repeats, or thinks we are on a good track and things are better since let's say 2013 ;0 is either a liar, delusional or both.

 

[WishIWasRetired]

Homeowners insurance going up
Stock market losses
Value of the dollar going down (excessive printing of money)
gas and diesel prices are more than double in many areas
Air travel prices gone up
Entertainment will take the biggest hit when the recession hits I don' t Disney being immune

I agree with everything you are saying. I think people will push though with their plans for vacation this year since they are probably already made and after that if the cost of things don't change most people will have serious decisions to make on how the spend there money.

 

[maemae74]

I agree with everything you are saying. I think people will push though with their plans for vacation this year since they are probably already made and after that if the cost of things don't change most people will have serious decisions to make on how the spend there money.

I think many are pushing through because they spent the past few summers at home not wanting to travel because of covid restrictions.

 

[John park hopper]

I worked at a local marine repair shop part time after I retired still talk to the mechanic. When i was there in 2018 boat sales were way up--- way down now --luxury item

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We make more money now than we we did 3 years ago due to job promotions and have way less disposable income now. There are tons of upper middle class families like us. Anyone who says, repeats, or thinks we are on a good track and things are better since let's say 2013 ;0 is either a liar, delusional or both.

Right…by “disposable” I mean it’s the thing people can cut out that causes the least amount of “pain”…it’s off in the distance, often the kids don’t even know, and your mind moves on quickly.

Not real “loss” by society standards

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I worked at a local marine repair shop part time after I retired still talk to the mechanic. When i was there in 2018 boat sales were way up--- way down now --luxury item

My FIL is trying to sell his and they said “it will sell In days because there isn’t a lot of inventory”

…ummm…no.

Salesmen never admit when they aren’t gonna sell. Ever

 

[Tha Realest]

I agree with everything you are saying. I think people will push though with their plans for vacation this year since they are probably already made and after that if the cost of things don't change most people will have serious decisions to make on how the spend there money.

Yep. Disney trips need to be booked out somewhat in advance. The real surge in gas prices and inflation didn't begin in earnest until early March.

 

[Rickcat96]

Demand for luxury good falls. Disney is a luxury good.

I think WDW demand is a good indicator of what is really going on in the economy. So long as the parks are packed, things are going well.

...and currently the parks are packed!

Are the parks really packed? or are the parks so understaffed that it appears they are packed?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think many are pushing through because they spent the past few summers at home not wanting to travel because of covid restrictions.

I’d say “most”. Stress levels have never been this high in the modern are of connected technology.

I mean…stress was undoubtedly high in WW2 for everyone…but it was 2 radio stations and the afternoon paper.

This was on a different plane…completely.

So a lot of people are burnt out…some others are angry/aggrieved…

They need something. Disney could have built longterm business outta this…but no…Bob Is a tool.

 

[maemae74]

I’d say “most”. Stress levels have never been this high in the modern are of connected technology.

I mean…stress was undoubtedly high in WW2 for everyone…but it was 2 radio stations and the afternoon paper.

This was on a different plane…completely.

So a lot of people are burnt out…some others are angry/aggrieved…

They need something. Disney could have built longterm business outta this…but no…Bob Is a tool.

YES YES

 

[jloucks]

Are the parks really packed? or are the parks so understaffed that it appears they are packed?

Good point, and yes yes.

They are packed and understaffed which makes it a bloody nightmare. IMHO. That said, way more people than I thought wouldn't care, don't care. My niece was there about 4 weeks ago and didn't seem to care lines were 2+ hours long. What in tarnation!

 

[Vacationeer]

Right…by “disposable” I mean it’s the thing people can cut out that causes the least amount of “pain”…it’s off in the distance, often the kids don’t even know, and your mind moves on quickly.

Not real “loss” by society standards

For sure. There were down turns where we couldn't swing WDW trips for a few years. No biggie, just focused on stuff we could do. Out of sight, out of mind.