WEATHER ALERT FOR WDW; MARCH 30th 2011

[Gringrinngghost]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 79
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WITH
EMBEDDED BOWS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FL.
ADDITIONAL QLCS-LEADING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MOIST /NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
AIRMASS. RELATIVELY STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT BOTH
BOWING SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.

. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
BREVARD CITRUS CLAY
COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL
FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON
HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAFAYETTE
LAKE LEVY MARION
NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE
SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION
VOLUSIA
$$

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

WT 0079
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

I will Provide updates though out the day here: http://forums.wdwmagic.com/showthread.php?t=721555

 

[Kamikaze]

This alert does not include WDW.

 

[cr3346]

yes it does

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Walt Disney World Resort is located in South West Orange County, Florida. Here is a Map with Disney's Location and the Tornado Watch. WDW is the Red dot and the Tornado Watch is the Red Box. Please Disregard the Bandwidth meter.

[/URL]

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Wuus52 kmlb 301947
svrmlb
flc069-095-117-127-302100-
/o.new.kmlb.sv.w.0005.110330t1947z-110330t2100z/

bulletin - eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service melbourne fl
347 pm edt wed mar 30 2011

the national weather service in melbourne has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Lake county in florida
western orange county in florida
western seminole county in florida
western volusia county in florida

* until 500 pm edt.

* at 341 pm edt...national weather service meteorologists detected a
line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size
hail...and destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. These storms
were located along a line extending from 29 miles west of the
villages to 27 miles west of mascotte...and moving east at 55 to
60 mph.

* other locations in the warning include...but are not limited to
...lady lake...leesburg...lake harris...clermont...apopka...
Lake george...the attractions area...winter garden...apopka...
Windermere...de leon springs...de land...altamonte springs...
Longwood...sanford...orlando...lake helen...maitland...and winter
park.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds in excess of 58 miles an
hour and or large destructive hail. Frequent to excessive lightning
and very heavy rain will also be possible. If the storm approaches
you...seek shelter in an enclosed building on the lowest floor. Keep
away from windows.

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. If a tornado
is spotted...act quickly and move to a place of safety in a sturdy
structure...such as a small interior room.

If on or near an inland lake...get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember...lightning can strike out to 15 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder...you are
close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now.
Don't be caught on the water in a thunderstorm!

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 pm edt wednesday evening
for east central florida.

&&

lat...lon 2896 8196 2896 8166 2929 8165 2932 8168
2940 8142 2927 8141 2927 8129 2908 8123
2878 8122 2834 8143 2834 8173 2834 8179
2835 8180 2834 8196
time...mot...loc 1943z 263deg 51kt 2909 8237 2897 8230
2886 8227 2879 8230 2867 8229 2851 8243

$$



cristaldi

 

[inluvwithbeast]

I'm sure all the meteorology students are hungrily watching the radar. The NWS building is here on campus. Whenever there's any kind of severe weather, it's like a Superbowl watch party.

Hope everyone stays safe! It's nader season!

 

[Gringrinngghost]

I'm sure all the meteorology students are hungrily watching the radar. The NWS building is here on campus. Whenever there's any kind of severe weather, it's like a Superbowl watch party.

Hope everyone stays safe! It's nader season!

Why was I not Invited?

Here is the latest Update:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 79...

VALID 301934Z - 302030Z

CORRECTED FOR WATCH TYPE IN HEADER

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 79 CONTINUES.

ORGANIZED QLCS AND ATTENDANT MESOLOW /ANALYZED APPROXIMATELY 25 NW
GNV/ HAVE SHIFTED ONSHORE THE W COAST OF FL. EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THIS LINE...BUT RECENT SFC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS
THE CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES /GENERALLY 10-15
KTS IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER PER VWP DATA/...AND COMBINED WITH
PROPAGATION SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 35-45 KTS AND QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE...FAVORING A PRIMARY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE LINE
BENEATH EMBEDDED STORM-SCALE CIRCULATIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT...AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION ACROSS
THE CNTRL PENINSULA HAS ALLOWED THE ENVIRONMENT TO SUFFICIENTLY
DESTABILIZE /MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG/...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION AS IT PROPAGATES EWD ACROSS THE
TOWARDS THE ERN FL PENINSULA.

..ROGERS.. 03/30/2011


ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 28188481 28568481 28588384 29388301 30608290 30448088
27828090 28188481

 

[Gringrinngghost]

 

[Gringrinngghost]

My Friend has sent this to me from outside the orlando area.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Wuus52 kmlb 302043
svrmlb
flc009-069-095-097-117-127-302145-
/o.new.kmlb.sv.w.0007.110330t2043z-110330t2145z/

bulletin - eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service melbourne fl
443 pm edt wed mar 30 2011

the national weather service in melbourne has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northwestern brevard county in florida
eastern lake county in florida
orange county in florida
northern osceola county in florida
seminole county in florida
volusia county in florida

* until 545 pm edt.

* at 439 pm edt...national weather service meteorologists detected a
line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size
hail...and destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. These storms
were located along a line extending from pierson to deland to
cassia to wekiwa springs state park to lockhart to windermere to
7 miles west of animal kingdom...moving east at 60 mph.

* these storms...along with individual cells ahead of the main
line...will affect most communities in the affected counties. If you
see threatening weather approaching...take shelter at once.

These storms are producing numerous reports of damage at this time.
Take shelter now!

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds in excess of 58 miles an
hour and or large destructive hail. Frequent to excessive lightning
and very heavy rain will also be possible. If the storm approaches
you...seek shelter in an enclosed building on the lowest floor. Keep
away from windows.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 pm edt wednesday evening
for east central florida. Severe storms can produce tornadoes with
little advance warning.

&&

lat...lon 2863 8064 2856 8072 2862 8079 2871 8075
2879 8084 2852 8077 2812 8094 2814 8152
2825 8157 2826 8166 2834 8167 2834 8175
2851 8166 2862 8152 2876 8154 2901 8143
2930 8157 2927 8116 2930 8115 2931 8103
time...mot...loc 2041z 269deg 33kt 2921 8146 2901 8132
2888 8138 2876 8143 2863 8141 2851 8155
2834 8169

$$

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Mesoscale discussion 0319
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0341 pm cdt wed mar 30 2011

areas affected...central and e central fl

concerning...tornado watch 79...

Valid 302041z - 302245z

the severe weather threat for tornado watch 79 continues.

Threat for damaging winds and hail -- and an isolated tornado or two
-- remain possible from central fl to the e central fl coast.

Latest radar shows a well-defined/bowing line of convection moving
ewd across central fl /i.e. The sern corner of the watch/ at near 50
kt. With a moderately unstable airmass /mixed-layer cape averaging
near 2000 j/kg/ and moderately strong/quasi-unidirectional flow
through the lower and middle troposphere...expect the
organized/severe mcs to continue ewd/offshore over the next couple
of hours. Attm...new ww is not anticipated farther s...as veered
low-level low across the peninsula combined with a swd-moving
outflow suggest that any storms will develop to the cool side of --
or quickly become undercut by -- outflow.

..goss.. 03/30/2011


attn...wfo...mlb...tbw...jax...

Lat...lon 27808165 28068222 28778151 29668124 29778085 27698033
27808165

 

[wizards8507]

Issued at: 5:05 PM EDT 3/30/11, expires at: 5:45 PM EDT 3/30/11A severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 545 pm edt for northwestern brevard, eastern volusia, eastern seminole, southeastern orange and northern osceola counties,
At 459 pm edt, national weather service meteorologists continued to detect a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing golf ball size hail, and destructive winds in excess of 80 mph. These storms were located along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of daytona beach intl speedway to spruce creek, lake ashby, farmton, to christmas park, kissimmee and west lake toho, moving rapidly east at 60 mph.
This line will produce widespread strong damaging wind gusts across central and east volusia, eastern seminole, central and southeast orange, and northern seminole and brevard counties.
Precautionary/preparedness actions,
A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. If a tornado is spotted, act quickly and move to a place of safety in a sturdy structure, such as a small interior room.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of your home or business. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant damage to property.
This storm has a history of producing widespread wind damage across the area!!! this is an extremely dangerous situation. Seek shelter now inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!
A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 pm edt Wednesday evening for east central Florida.

Tornado Watch:
Issued at: 5:03 PM EDT 3/30/11, expires at: 8:00 PM EDT 3/30/11Tornado watch 79 remains in effect until 800 pm edt for the following locations Fl ., Florida Counties Included Are:
Brevard, Clay, Duval, Flagler, Hillsborough, Lake, Marion, Nassau, Orange, Osceola, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, St. Johns, Seminole, Volusia.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:
Issued at: 4:43 PM EDT 3/30/11, expires at: 5:45 PM EDT 3/30/11The NWS in melbourne has issued a
severe thunderstorm warning for: northwestern brevard county in Florida eastern lake county in Florida orange county in Florida northern osceola county in Florida seminole county in Florida volusia county in Florida
Until 545 pm edt..
At 439 pm edt, national weather service meteorologists detected a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size hail, and destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. These storms were located along a line extending from pierson to deland to cassia to wekiwa springs state park to lockhart to windermere to 7 miles west of animal kingdom, moving east at 60 mph.
These storms, along with individual cells ahead of the main line, will affect most communities in the affected counties. If you see threatening weather approaching, take shelter at once.
These storms are producing numerous reports of damage at this time. Take shelter now!
Precautionary/preparedness actions,
Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds in excess of 58 miles an hour and or large destructive hail. Frequent to excessive lightning and very heavy rain will also be possible. If the storm approaches you, seek shelter in an enclosed building on the lowest floor. Keep away from windows.
A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 pm edt Wednesday evening for east central Florida. Severe storms can produce tornadoes with little advance warning.

 

[wizards8507]

Things have calmed down a bit. Weather man said we had winds of almost 80 mph and almost 3800 lighting strikes in the Central FL area.

Sounds like a party.

 

[Danhockey04]

Just was driving down I-4 right by DHS while the main of the storm hit, winds were near 70mph, branches were flying off trees across the highway and hitting cars. Rain was crazy, was outside for less than a second and came out nearly soaked. Did not last very long, maybe 5-10 minutes, but branches and tress were all over the roadways. Getting ready for round 2 tomorrow, apparently we are getting worse storms tomorrow.

 

[scpergj]

Just was driving down I-4 right by DHS while the main of the storm hit, winds were near 70mph, branches were flying off trees across the highway and hitting cars. Rain was crazy, was outside for less than a second and came out nearly soaked. Did not last very long, maybe 5-10 minutes, but branches and tress were all over the roadways. Getting ready for round 2 tomorrow, apparently we are getting worse storms tomorrow.

Yeah - we should see the same up here in Jax tomorrow afternoon...

 

[inluvwithbeast]

Yeah - we should see the same up here in Jax tomorrow afternoon...

Would gladly take the storms off your hands! We need the rain here in OK. :wave:

 

[menamechris]

Getting ready for round 2 tomorrow, apparently we are getting worse storms tomorrow.

Oh no... They only time I like this kind of weather is when I dont have to be out in it. Popcorn and a horror movie on the sofa is a good activity for these kinds of storms. Haha

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Spc ac 301729

day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1229 pm cdt wed mar 30 2011

valid 311200z - 011200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms thu across the florida
peninsula...

...synopsis...
Models indicate that large-scale upper troughing will gradually
translate eastward across the eastern states thursday...as upstream
ridging develops eastward through the pacific coast states and
intermountain west. Little further increase in amplitude is
expected...with a significant short wave impulse within the eastern
trough progged to turn east of the lower mississippi valley toward
mid atlantic coastal areas. However... Guidance is suggestive that
phasing of the polar and subtropical streams will lead to
intensifying flow fields across the southeastern states into the
western atlantic...and contribute to surface cyclogenesis near or
just east of the atlantic seaboard.

...florida...
Short wave developments within the subtropical stream are among a
number of uncertainties that exist for this forecast period. Models
do generally suggest that convective development could be ongoing
near a pre-frontal low-level confluence zone across the central
peninsula at 12z thursday...and perhaps a bit more likely in a
cluster within a zone of enhanced low-level warm advection ahead of
an approaching impulse...near or just west of the central florida
peninsula gulf coast. It is unclear what impact that this will have
on subsequent boundary layer destabilization during the day. The
tendency should be for activity to develop eastward and inland...but
with an initial fairly deep surface cyclone off the southern mid
atlantic coast early in the period...and the secondary wave
development also likely already commencing near georgia/south
carolina coastal areas...surface flow probably will have a
substantial westerly component. So...except perhaps near east
central peninsula coastal areas...storm-relative flow fields and
low-level convergence do not appear likely to be maximized...which
may limit the convective potential. Still...with weak to moderate
boundary destabilization possible over the central peninsula during
the day thursday...coincident with strengthening westerly deep layer
mean flow fields and shear /40-50+ kt/...and one or more additional
storm clusters developing ahead of upper troughing over the eastern
gulf of mexico...a risk for severe storms will exist.

..kerr.. 03/30/2011

 

[blm07]

There is rain, thunder, lightning and occasionally hail. Trees will fall, and news stations will make you feel like the apocalypse is here. It's just Florida's way of saying "Hello! Welcome to summer!"

 

[golden redhead]

We are under a tornado watch until 1pm, and already I have had 3 co-workers call me to see if I am in work. Yes, I am here, where are you? they are waiting for it to calm down a bit before heading out (I live the closest at 4 miles away). I have to drive to St cloud at 3:30, so I hope it calms down by then.