WDW Reopening Estimates

[tecowdw]

So I was wondering what the general consensus of us Disney fans is for when Disney World will reopen.
Please take part in the poll for your guess and feel free to comment.

 

[John Hendershot]

I’m guessing for shortly after July 4th - less crowds, rainy weather, hot - should equal lower crowds - a good recipe for a slow coordinated re-opening of the parks. I think that Disney Springs may open earlier (end of May to mid June) as a way to test social distancing strategies and tweak as need so the parks will be good to go once opened.

 

[CastAStone]

I’m an unfounded optimist about the various antivirals being studied now. Results of actual gold standard clinical trials come later this month for many of them. So I put August. But if that doesn’t work out I mean probably 2021?

 

[havoc315]

I've been playing this game in my own head, honestly...

But we may as well be playing roulette.

I suspect Disney is planning for lots of contingencies, but they don't know what will happen.

Among the questions:
- When does the "Country" start to lift restrictions? What recommendations remain in place on a national level?
- Even if we are now past the peak, how are things faring in Florida? How much better or worse is Florida along the curve?
-What are the dangers of a second wave? Watching other countries now, how are they dealing with risks of second waves?
-What *mandatory* restrictions remain in place? It's very possible that lots of non-essential business start to open in May and June, but there may be continued bans on theaters and large gatherings.
-What travel restrictions remain in place?
-What is the status of testing, tracing and containment?
-Even assuming there are few/no mandatory restrictions, what restrictions does Disney believe are necessary to protect them from a legal liability and PR perspective? (Imaging the headline in October -- "Disney put profits over safety by re-opening too quickly, over 100 deaths now traced to Disney parks in June")
-Can the parks realistically function with the necessary restrictions?
-If the necessary restrictions require reduction in attendance, can Disney be profitable at the lower attendance?

Here is what we kind of know:
-Disney sent home cultural representative and fall interns. They will not have 100% operating staff for quite some time.
-Disney is taking reservations for June 1+, suggesting Disney sees June 1st as a kind-of best case scenario.

So that's all we know... a best case scenario of an opening on or around June 1st.

But Governor Cuomo today made the point that this is not going to be flicking a switch and going back to normal. On these boards, there have been riots about possible temperature checks. Honestly, it's very very hard to imagine the parks operating 100% normally on June 1st, with the only protective measure being temperature checks.

Again, I doubt the top executives of Disney really have too clear an idea of what's going to happen. They likely have lots of plans in pencil right now. For everything from a June opening with lots of restrictions, to a September/October re-opening.
My guess..... by May 1st, they start to really start laying out concrete plans. We will start to hear more rumors, as employee unions are told when they can expect furloughs to end. Some announcements will start going so June-booked guests can start to plan.

Until early late April/early May, I think we are basically making random guesses.

 

[Getachew]

For now saying July, but who knows.

 

[Getachew]

I’m guessing for shortly after July 4th - less crowds, rainy weather, hot - should equal lower crowds - a good recipe for a slow coordinated re-opening of the parks. I think that Disney Springs may open earlier (end of May to mid June) as a way to test social distancing strategies and tweak as need so the parks will be good to go once opened.

I agree about Springs being the first to open, possibly a month before anything else.

 

[TrojanUSC]

I've been playing this game in my own head, honestly...

But we may as well be playing roulette.

I suspect Disney is planning for lots of contingencies, but they don't know what will happen.

Among the questions:
- When does the "Country" start to lift restrictions? What recommendations remain in place on a national level?
- Even if we are now past the peak, how are things faring in Florida? How much better or worse is Florida along the curve?
-What are the dangers of a second wave? Watching other countries now, how are they dealing with risks of second waves?
-What *mandatory* restrictions remain in place? It's very possible that lots of non-essential business start to open in May and June, but there may be continued bans on theaters and large gatherings.
-What travel restrictions remain in place?
-What is the status of testing, tracing and containment?
-Even assuming there are few/no mandatory restrictions, what restrictions does Disney believe are necessary to protect them from a legal liability and PR perspective? (Imaging the headline in October -- "Disney put profits over safety by re-opening too quickly, over 100 deaths now traced to Disney parks in June")
-Can the parks realistically function with the necessary restrictions?
-If the necessary restrictions require reduction in attendance, can Disney be profitable at the lower attendance?

Here is what we kind of know:
-Disney sent home cultural representative and fall interns. They will not have 100% operating staff for quite some time.
-Disney is taking reservations for June 1+, suggesting Disney sees June 1st as a kind-of best case scenario.

So that's all we know... a best case scenario of an opening on or around June 1st.

But Governor Cuomo today made the point that this is not going to be flicking a switch and going back to normal. On these boards, there have been riots about possible temperature checks. Honestly, it's very very hard to imagine the parks operating 100% normally on June 1st, with the only protective measure being temperature checks.

Again, I doubt the top executives of Disney really have too clear an idea of what's going to happen. They likely have lots of plans in pencil right now. For everything from a June opening with lots of restrictions, to a September/October re-opening.
My guess..... by May 1st, they start to really start laying out concrete plans. We will start to hear more rumors, as employee unions are told when they can expect furloughs to end. Some announcements will start going so June-booked guests can start to plan.

Until early late April/early May, I think we are basically making random guesses.

California, which has fared really well in this all, has said even though some restrictions may be lifted in June - concerts or sporting events, mass gathering type things, will likely not be back until near Thanksgiving.

 

[Kristoff]

My guess is that by mid June Disney will open in a limited capacity (new queue process, reduced parades, shows, and fireworks, and reduced restaurant capacity). I expect Disney to be fully up and running without reduced capacity by the end of September (though still implementing some form of social distancing standards). Gotta get that sweet MNSSHP and food and wine money.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

The opening will be a “special ticketed event.” Maybe celebrity only?

 

[havoc315]

California, which has fared really well in this all, has said even though some restrictions may be lifted in June - concerts or sporting events, mass gathering type things, will likely not be back until near Thanksgiving.

So if true (which seems likely), pretty hard for Disney Land to be open before Thanksgiving.

and even if the State of Florida is dumb... doesn’t mean Disney has to be dumb.

That said... let’s get to “we just don’t know.”

if it’s July and there are so signs of a second wave, I could see a faster normalization. On the other hand, if we are constantly putting out fires... things can stretch into 2021.

 

[DHoy]

My guess is as unreliable as anyone's, but thoughts are reopening takes place in following order:


June
1. Springs
2. Deluxe/DVC
July
3. Magic Kingdom
4. DHS
August
5. Moderate resorts
September
6. Value resorts
October
7. Animal Kingdom
December
8. Epcot
February 2021
9.Water Parks

 

[Getachew]

California, which has fared really well in this all, has said even though some restrictions may be lifted in June - concerts or sporting events, mass gathering type things, will likely not be back until near Thanksgiving.

Yikes.

I do believe DL will open before WDW. It will be the "test run" for WDW, imo.

 

[Getachew]

My guess is as unreliable as anyone's, but thoughts are reopening takes place in following order:


June
1. Springs
2. Deluxe/DVC
July
3. Magic Kingdom
4. DHS
August
5. Moderate resorts
September
6. Value resorts
October
7. Animal Kingdom
December
8. Epcot
February 2021
9.Water Parks

I personally doubt they will open AK and Epcot that much later than the rest of the parks. Maybe a month, but that's it.

 

[techgeek]

A lot of people seem to think Springs could open first, and a lot sooner then the parks. I’m not entirely sure there’s a market or motivation to do that, and I don’t see a need to consider reopening Springs until table service dining is allowed in some fashion.

From today’s perspective, it seems August 1st is as good a date to throw out there as any. MK and monorail resorts only, phase in from there.

 

[DisneyCane]

California, which has fared really well in this all, has said even though some restrictions may be lifted in June - concerts or sporting events, mass gathering type things, will likely not be back until near Thanksgiving.

I'll never understand where they get these dates from. What is going to be different between June and November that doesn't allow mass gatherings in June but does in November? I'll have to use my imagination but it makes absolutely no sense from the standpoint of an infectious disease that won't have a vaccine in that time frame.

 

[Jrb1979]

I'll never understand where they get these dates from. What is going to be different between June and November that doesn't allow mass gatherings in June but does in November? I'll have to use my imagination but it makes absolutely no sense from the standpoint of an infectious disease that won't have a vaccine in that time frame.

The hope is by then with lifting some restrictions and slowly allowing things to open that new cases stay low that large gatherings will start being allowed.

 

[Parker in NYC]

December or later.

 

[DisneyCane]

The hope is by then with lifting some restrictions and slowly allowing things to open that new cases stay low that large gatherings will start being allowed.

But if the cases are low in June and stay at the same level through November then what is the logic to wait? 100 cases a day in June is the same as 100 cases per day in November.

I'm of course assuming that the current measures are actually doing something and the cases per day will be low by June like South Korea's curve.

 

[Jrb1979]

But if the cases are low in June and stay at the same level through November then what is the logic to wait? 100 cases a day in June is the same as 100 cases per day in November.

I'm of course assuming that the current measures are actually doing something and the cases per day will be low by June like South Korea's curve.

The logic to wait is in case they open everything all at once the cases could spike. So by June they will open places like restaurants and stores with limited capacity. With those measures in place the 100 cases in June isn't the same as 100 cases in November.

 

[TrojanUSC]

But if the cases are low in June and stay at the same level through November then what is the logic to wait? 100 cases a day in June is the same as 100 cases per day in November.

I'm of course assuming that the current measures are actually doing something and the cases per day will be low by June like South Korea's curve.

They also have to test, track and isolate people. Without a vaccine we need large scale testing and tracing of contacts. That won't happen before the fall.