WDW Reopening Estimates

[carolina_yankee]

A
Actually there is. We own the hotels. If they open up other hotels, it is no longer a safety issue, and by law they would have to honor DVC reservations.

DVC members don't own the resorts. Disney does. We own a usage right classified as a particular percentage of a particular unit. (I went through the trouble of matching up declared units with room maps at SSR once and discovered my interest was a fraction of a 2BR unit in one of the Paddock buildings!)

We fund the hotels, though, so there is no financial reason to not fully operate the resort under "cost-saving" measures.

 

[GoofGoof]

The problem with banking is that it only works if a roughly a similar number of points are borrowed from next year into this year. Enough points are sold to keep resorts at near 100% occupancy all the time. What happens when you have 200% of points trying to book 100% of rooms in the next year?

The contract is 50 years. They can't just take points away, nor can they arbitrarily extend the contract by saying "Well, this year is a wash. I'll give you year 51 to make up for it."

If the DVC resorts can legally open, they simply will have to do it, or be prepared for lawsuits. These are legally binding contracts and real-estate interests.

Dirk

Agreed on banking and borrowing. It creates a trickle down impact that could last several years. Extra points banked into 2021 force owners to bank 2021 points into 2022, etc.

The DVC resorts can legally open today if they wanted to. The bigger issue is more than half of them are part of a larger resort with shared facilities. If Disney says for safety reasons they are limiting resort capacity then how can they justify making an exception if it’s a DVC room vs a cash hotel room.

 

[carolina_yankee]

It should be especially in today's climate each business is fighting to bring in any business they can, if folks are not traveling and do not plan to come anytime soon you want to grab as much of the pool as you can.

If somebody wants a Disney vacation, there is absolutely nothing at Universal that will satisfy them. Just like if somebody wants a Harry Potter experience, there is absolutely no reason to book a Disney vacation. If somebody wants a great theme park, whatever the brand, they'll probably go with the best that's open.

I suspect Disney has enough loyalty that any "who opened first" conversations will quickly evaporate after a couple of months. Hardly anyone will refuse to go to Disney down the road because "back during the Pandemic, they didn't open first."

 

[Hcalvert]

So 1,050 people if all 30 teams come. 560 if they just do the 16 playoff teams and 280 if they only do the Eastern Conference playoffs. That doesn’t include officials, TV crews, media members and other support staff for the league but they could stay anywhere since they don’t directly interact with the players.

If they pick Orlando, when does the NBA envision finishing the season---or it that still unknown? Just wondering.

 

[brianstl]

Like I said, when they open they will come. The brand loyalty is absurd. They will open when they want to.

You want them to. I want them to. But we make diddly squat difference.

They will have to slash prices like they did after 2008 and even then it took them two years to recover on the revenue side and fours on the income side. It took them 8 years to get back to the same hotel occupancy rate. I don't think they slash prices this time around in attempt to keep attendance up. I think they try to keep the per guest spending numbers up and take the hit when it comes to attendance and occupancy rates.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Agreed on banking and borrowing. It creates a trickle down impact that could last several years. Extra points banked into 2021 force owners to bank 2021 points into 2022, etc.

The DVC resorts can legally open today if they wanted to. The bigger issue is more than half of them are part of a larger resort with shared facilities. If Disney says for safety reasons they are limiting resort capacity then how can they justify making an exception if it’s a DVC room vs a cash hotel room.

That will be an interesting scenario to see play out. I personally would be fine using my DVC points to book an equivalent non-DVC room at studio rates (not the inflated exchange rate). However, smarter people than me tell me that Disney can't do that because different parts of the company, etc.

Well, somebody's going to have to figure something out! DVC sales will tank if it becomes a product you can buy but can't use.

 

[jt04]

They will have to slash prices like they did after 2008 and even then it took them two years to recover on the revenue side and fours on the income side. It took them 8 years to get back to the same hotel occupancy rate. I don't think they slash prices this time around in attempt to keep attendance up. I think they try to keep the per guest spending numbers up and take the hit when it comes to attendance and occupancy rates.

They should open each park with a series of separate ticket events. IMO. Possibly by lottery.

 

[GoofGoof]

If they pick Orlando, when does the NBA envision finishing the season---or it that still unknown? Just wondering.

Based on a normal season the full playoffs takes about 2 months. If you add in a few weeks to end the regular season and start in July it’s likely to go through September.

 

[Hcalvert]

Based on a normal season the full playoffs takes about 2 months. If you add in a few weeks to end the regular season and start in July it’s likely to go through September.

I ask as I have a week stay booked for CSR the second of week of July before I transfer to Poly for a week after that. Of course, who knows if they will open by that time. I do think CSR is the way for the NBA to go if they are going to take over a resort with the rooms recently being renovated, having a convention center and gym, and several different restaurants and lounges to choose from. Who knows.

 

[GoofGoof]

They should open each park with a series of separate ticket events. IMO. Possibly by lottery.

There was a rumor sorta like this. They said when first open all parks would be by reservation only and everyone would have single day tickets. AP holders would have their passes extended and the option to buy day passes at a discounted price. No park hopping. Guests at resorts that already booked packages including length of stay multi-day tickets would be converted to a series of daily tickets but they would have to reserve the parks in advance still based on availability. Just a rumor.

 

[RaveOnEd]

There was a rumor sorta like this. They said when first open all parks would be by reservation only and everyone would have single day tickets. AP holders would have their passes extended and the option to buy day passes at a discounted price. No park hopping. Guests at resorts that already booked packages including length of stay multi-day tickets would be converted to a series of daily tickets but they would have to reserve the parks in advance still based on availability. Just a rumor.

That's what I was reading and hearing as well. If it was still that way in August, we had each day's park lined up so we could request those reservations.

 

[Shouldigo12]

The problem with banking is that it only works if a roughly a similar number of points are borrowed from next year into this year. Enough points are sold to keep resorts at near 100% occupancy all the time. What happens when you have 200% of points trying to book 100% of rooms in the next year?

The contract is 50 years. They can't just take points away, nor can they arbitrarily extend the contract by saying "Well, this year is a wash. I'll give you year 51 to make up for it."

If the DVC resorts can legally open, they simply will have to do it, or be prepared for lawsuits. These are legally binding contracts and real-estate interests.

Dirk

I think the situation is, legally, a little more gray than that but I do agree that this is certainly a messy situation and a hard problem to solve.

 

[Bob Harlem]

It's official 6/5 for Universal

 

[TeriofTerror]

Quick question: I know the parks are submitting plans to the powers that be to get permission to open, but what happens if they choose to alter those plans down the road? Do they have to submit a request for that, as well? For example, if Disney or Universal decides to double the number of guests they're admitting or eliminate masks, do they have to get permission to do so? (Same question for any of the new protocols, really; these are just examples.)

 

[jinx8402]

If they pick Orlando, when does the NBA envision finishing the season---or it that still unknown? Just wondering.

From the man who might have kick started this whole thing, looking like they would aim to begin play around mid July and finish sometime in September

 

[brianstl]

Quick question: I know the parks are submitting plans to the powers that be to get permission to open, but what happens if they choose to alter those plans down the road? Do they have to submit a request for that, as well? For example, if Disney or Universal decides to double the number of guests they're admitting or eliminate masks, do they have to get permission to do so? (Same question for any of the new protocols, really; these are just examples.)

My guess is that they would only have to submit it for approval if it is not covered by or in conflict with state and local guidelines. If they decide that they want to eliminate the mask requirement and Orange County and Florida guidelines say mask are no longer required for large theme parks, they can get rid of the mask requirement without having to submit for proposal.

 

[brianstl]

From the man who might have kick started this whole thing, looking like they would aim to begin play around mid July and finish sometime in September

That mid September draft will complicate things for kids with college eligibility left.

 

[Herdman]

If they pick Orlando, when does the NBA envision finishing the season---or it that still unknown? Just wondering.

The rumor is they will play 5 regular season games and then start the playoffs. If they start playing games around July 1st then I would think they would be done around the end of August.

 

[Herdman]

Based on a normal season the full playoffs takes about 2 months. If you add in a few weeks to end the regular season and start in July it’s likely to go through September.

The story from most outlets is that they will play 5 regular season games and then start the playoffs. If they start playing games July 1st then I'd guess end of August or first week of September. Most outlets also say that they don't woant to compete with the start of the NFL season which is currently September 10th.

 

[WDWTrojan]

There's a possibly that opening does not mean it stays open. If the "health officials" approve the opening plan, is there some way to reverse the decision if the # of daily cases rises? Also, no one is really going to be tracking WHERE they got infected, so even looking at local cases, we'd have no way to know how many people are getting infected AT Disney. You would need to factor in where guests live and that's not public information.

Very true but given the close quarters many CMs share (break rooms, locker rooms, etc) - the bigger issue would be a significant outbreak among cast. There would be no way to control that spread to guests.

Honestly Disney can do what they want but seeing that Universal is a Go for 6/5 opening already approved by the mayor and the governor I am not sure what Disney is waiting for. If anything the footprint of Universal is much smaller than Disney and Disney has far more cast members to take care of what needs to be done. I am honestly disappointed that Disney has not released plans yet if the hold up is because of the NBA that sucks I understand the money but that is a one time shot not the returning guests that we are.

They're waiting until they feel its safe for their guests from a risk management standpoint. Just the reality of the situation. There's some belief internally Universal moved too soon. Further, they are often the "added day" park in that not a huge amount of people are traveling to Universal from out of state specifically to go there. WDW, for better or worse, is an international destination. How do you safely open that, in good conscious, knowing that you will cater mostly out of state guests, when a CDC guideline is in place advising that no one travel, except for "essential" trips?