WDW Reopening Estimates

[SoFloMagic]

What do you think happens for Party days? And phase closings?

I think that's different. Party days are listed in the app, and you just have to leave early. And when was the last phase closing that locked out APs? 10 years ago? Even then, you could pick from three other parks.
Even more reason for them to wait!

 

[GoofGoof]

I mean, I totally agree that Florida should lift that restriction. I'm just not sure why Disney would wait for that, especially if they are doing limited, trial openings anyway.

I think the main reason they would want to wait is for the safety of their thousands of employees. If there’s large population centers that are so bad off still that people are still banned from travel to the state the last thing Disney or anyone should want is people from those areas coming to Orlando. It’s fine to open local attractions: shopping, dining, zoos, parks, beaches but something as complex as WDW that’s very much a national attraction (85% of normal attendance comes from outside of FL) is a different ballgame. I know the “talking point” is the state is actively enforcing the quarantine of those people so let everyone else in, but it’s naive to think that it will weed even most of the people out. There are easily half a dozen ways someone could beat that type of quarantine and that doesn’t even include the cross contamination. Someone from NJ flies out of Philly and gets quarantined on arrival but infected a bunch of people from PA or DE in the air. A person from Cleveland spends the weekend in NYC then drives down to Baltimore and hops a flight to MCO. The list goes on. If the hot spots are still too hot...it’s too soon to open. Just my 2 cents.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Does not hold water when you are opening Disney Springs, on 5/27 the Disney owned stores open and you have opened Shanghai.

There's a vast difference between a handful of CMs coming back at DS to opening theme parks with tens of thousands of employees.

Shanghai as a rebuttal is a non-starter thanks to their contact tracing system that is light years of anything we have or will ever have here.

 

[Andrew_Animatronic]

Let's start by looking at where Disney's customers in the US come from. It happens to be those 3 states provide a huge percentageof those customers. COMCAST has not mentioned on any of there news coverage that people from these 3 states are not eligible to enter the parks unless they stay in a hotel for 14 days prior to entry. Do you really think people are willing to do that? If you don't, then tell that in your news coverage. Fortunately,, I still have time to cancel my June 10 trip and am hoping Florida joins Texas in removing this travel restriction. I know I don't have Covid19 and neither does my wife. We have followed all the health recommendations and are safe and waiting for Florida to wake up and do the right thing for their economy.

This travel restriction is frankly discriminatory. I come from a part of NY that’s pretty much unaffected, why should I not be able to go to Disney?

 

[GoofGoof]

This travel restriction is frankly discriminatory. I come from a part of NY that’s pretty much unaffected, why should I not be able to go to Disney?

This is a valid point too. I come from a part of PA near Philly that most likely has more active and daily new cases than large parts of NY, NJ and CT. I am not restricted from going to FL. There are other states too that have hot spots. The orders were sorta random and at least borderline a political stunt to begin with but I don’t want to get into all that. If FL really moves completely to phase 2 June 1 (I believe they have to for theme parks to open) then they will likely remove the state restrictions anyway. This could all be an academic debate by then.

 

[SoFloMagic]

This is a valid point too. I come from a part of PA near Philly that most likely has more active and daily new cases than large parts of NY, NJ and CT. I am not restricted from going to FL. There are other states too that have hot spots. The orders were sorta random and at least borderline a political stunt to begin with but I don’t want to get into all that. If FL really moves completely to phase 2 June 1 (I believe they have to for theme parks to open) then they will likely remove the state restrictions anyway. This could all be an academic debate by then.

Cases aren't declining, so I'm not sure how Florida can justify moving to phase 2. Not that that will stop them...

 

[GoofGoof]

Cases aren't declining, so I'm not sure how Florida can justify moving to phase 2. Not that that will stop them...

They will justify it by saying they are testing more so that‘s why cases are up.

 

[carolina_yankee]

I wish people who don’t know what they are talking about would quit posting. We certainly do own the buildings. It is a fractional ownership of a certain building. It is listed on your deed. We own the buildings and Disney leases us the land. At the end of the contract length, the ownership will be reverted back to Disney, but until then it is ours.

We don’t own the buildings. We don’t own the common areas. We own a fractional interest in units in the building that is converted to vacation points for booking purposes.

Yes, I agree I wish people who didn’t know what they were talking about would stop posting. Buts it’s an internet forum.

Dirk

 

[carolina_yankee]

I can see it being awhile before they lift that order, unless things in those states start improving greatly.

They are improving greatly. Our numbers are plummeting.

Dirk

 

[The real rescueranger]

We don’t own the buildings. We don’t own the common areas. We own a fractional interest in units in the building that is converted to vacation points for booking purposes.

Yes, I agree I wish people who didn’t know what they were talking about would stop posting. Buts it’s an internet forum.

Dirk

Yes. We. Do. I am done arguing as you obviously don’t understand how it works.

 

[ToTBellHop]

CT, NY, NJ are doing better:

 

[TTA94]

Glad to hear things are improving in those states. Hopefully that means they will drop the travel/isolation restrictions soon.

 

[brianstl]

Yes. We. Do. I am done arguing as you obviously don’t understand how it works.

It is crazy. I wonder why he thinks he pays maintenance fees on the building if he doesn’t own an interest in the building?

 

[the_rich]

It is crazy. I wonder why he thinks he pays maintenance fees on the building if he doesn’t own an interest in the building?

I too would assume its like a co op. I own shares and pay maintenance but I don't own the building I live in.

 

[Herdman]

There's a vast difference between a handful of CMs coming back at DS to opening theme parks with tens of thousands of employees.

Shanghai as a rebuttal is a non-starter thanks to their contact tracing system that is light years of anything we have or will ever have here.

Thank God. It's called communism.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Yes. We. Do. I am done arguing as you obviously don’t understand how it works.

It is crazy. I wonder why he thinks he pays maintenance fees on the building if he doesn’t own an interest in the building?

I too would assume its like a co op. I own shares and pay maintenance but I don't own the building I live in.

To avoid further back and forth, here’s what the product understanding checklist says. I was quoting the real estate interest in a particular unit. I was wrong when I said it didn’t include common areas.

My original point in all of this is that Disney would have trouble justifying not opening DVC resorts if they open other resorts because we have a contract and right to use as opposed to a reservation that can simply be canceled and refunded. Legal people can frame it more specifically and accurately, I’m sure.

Since the contract expires I have trouble grasping that I physically own anything other than points to use, but again I’m not a real estate person, and that wasn’t the point of my argument against Disney keeping DVC closed.

 

[robhedin]

To avoid further back and forth, here’s what the product understanding checklist says. I was quoting the real estate interest in a particular unit. I was wrong when I said it didn’t include common areas.

My original point in all of this is that Disney would have trouble justifying not opening DVC resorts if they open other resorts because we have a contract and right to use as opposed to a reservation that can simply be canceled and refunded. Legal people can frame it more specifically and accurately, I’m sure.

Since the contract expires I have trouble grasping that I physically own anything other than points to use, but again I’m not a real estate person, and that wasn’t the point of my argument against Disney keeping DVC closed.

View attachment 471957

It's a leasehold -- it says it right there. That's why it expires. You're basically renting at DVC.

While you don't "own" the property, for the duration of the lease, it's kind of a moot concept... much like an apartment, you've paid for the use of the facilities for a set period of time. So I'd tend to agree that DVC is in a unique position-- you've got a contract that says you have purchased the right to use it. While it makes sense that they can keep it closed for safety reasons, as soon as they determine that its safe to open a resort, they'd have to open the DVC resorts. I could see an exception for those resorts that have shared facilities, though.

 

[pdude81]

I think we own a fractional interest in a non-descript subdivision of a building lease.

 

[GoofGoof]

It's a leasehold -- it says it right there. That's why it expires. You're basically renting at DVC.

While you don't "own" the property, for the duration of the lease, it's kind of a moot concept... much like an apartment, you've paid for the use of the facilities for a set period of time. So I'd tend to agree that DVC is in a unique position-- you've got a contract that says you have purchased the right to use it. While it makes sense that they can keep it closed for safety reasons, as soon as they determine that its safe to open a resort, they'd have to open the DVC resorts. I could see an exception for those resorts that have shared facilities, though.

The bigger question is if they determine it’s safe to open a resort at 50% capacity but not 100% does that apply to DVC too? IMHO unless all these restrictions are really just “security theater” then it has to apply to DVC also. If they decide to restrict it how does that work. It’s not like a cash reservation where they just waive the cancellation fees and the person is made whole. DVC owners have already prepaid for their room between the initial buy-in and maintenance fees. If they cancel your reservation will they allow the points to be banked and used next year which opens a whole other can of worms for next year. I would assume they would cancel reservations in the reverse order of when they were made (newest reservations cancelled first) or they could have a period where they offer volunteers to give up their room for some incentive (think overbooked flight). It’s not an impossible situation but the logistics are a bit challenging.

 

[carolina_yankee]

It's a leasehold -- it says it right there. That's why it expires. You're basically renting at DVC.

While you don't "own" the property, for the duration of the lease, it's kind of a moot concept... much like an apartment, you've paid for the use of the facilities for a set period of time. So I'd tend to agree that DVC is in a unique position-- you've got a contract that says you have purchased the right to use it. While it makes sense that they can keep it closed for safety reasons, as soon as they determine that its safe to open a resort, they'd have to open the DVC resorts. I could see an exception for those resorts that have shared facilities, though.

This has been my position on the re-opening. I'm not sure I agree about the shared facilities, though, as most Public Offering Statements say those amenities aren't guaranteed to be available. If pools, restaurants, exercise rooms remain closed, I can't see that being a reason to not open a resort. The only place where that is even an issue, is probably AKV-Jambo as every other DVC is its own building or has its own building(s) and/or pool in a mixed-use resort. CCV is a wing of WL but it has its own DVC pool shared with Boulder Ridge. All WDW has to do is open the lobby and front desk.