WDW Reopening Estimates

[Giss Neric]

I don’t see them opening until 2021. Reason is that Florida has restrictions on employees wearing masks and social distancing. I don’t see Disney sending out their princesses and other non costumed characters with face masks on. I mean can you see them having Cinderella wearing a face mask? And then also trying to keep everyone 6 ft apart and sanitizing every ride vehicle after each guest disembarks.

Shanghai Disneyland is opening today. They stated that all characters will be in safe distance from all guests so there will still fur and face characters just no meet and greets.

Watch this. This answers all your questions. And no they will not open in 2021.

 

[Disney Kween]

In some fashion with many restrictions and reduced capacity Disney could open its gates as early as July. Functioning regularly I don't see that happening till much later such as January 2021.

 

[Giss Neric]

In some fashion with many restrictions and reduced capacity Disney could open its gates as early as July. Functioning regularly I don't see that happening till much later such as January 2021.

Yup, this is the most likely scenario. They better be functioning regularly by next year cause it's their 50th anniversary but I'm still nervous.

 

[Disney Kween]

Yup, this is the most likely scenario. They better be functioning regularly by next year cause it's their 50th anniversary but I'm still nervous.

That is exactly what I am thinking. They need to really get it together for that.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yup, this is the most likely scenario. They better be functioning regularly by next year cause it's their 50th anniversary but I'm still nervous.

That is exactly what I am thinking. They need to really get it together for that.

That’s largely out of Disney’s hands. If there’s a vaccine by early 2021 the summer could be mostly back to normal. Without a vaccine there’s not a great chance for a return to normal for 2021.

 

[Incomudro]

Yes, it’s different. But no effective vaccine after over 30 years. And plenty of other viruses have never found a vaccine. Lots of HIV vaccines have gone through trials.
Which is why nobody should get too excited that vaccines have already entered trials.
I’ll keep my fingers crossed, but the odds are against the current vaccine trials to pan out.
Then even if they do pan out, there is a very good chance that they are far less than 100% effective. For example, most flu vaccines are only 40-60% effective.
Further, at least one of the current vaccines in trials(I have to check, possibly both) would not be eligible for those who are immuno-compromises, those who need it most can’t take it.

Point is — we can’t expect a miracle vaccine by late 2020 that erases the virus. It’s not impossible, but it’s a long shot.
Instead, we need to find ways to live with it..
1... even as we “open up,” hygiene and social distancing measures
2.. masks. I forget the exact math, but it’s something like: if 70% of the population wore masks that were 60% effective, the virus would be gone in a few months.
3.. therapeutics and treatment that make the virus less dangerous
4... testing and tracing.

Those measures are more likely to “cure” society than a vaccine.

Don't agree on the mask part though.
I believe they are essentially useless under most circumstances.

 

[Incomudro]

Good observations, there is still a lot we don’t know. As the re-opening goes on we find an unsustainable uptick in cases, but we might not....we can speculate, but no one knows. We may find Florida was foolhardy for opening too early, but it’s quite possible that everything will turn out fine and it was right and smart for them to get the ball rolling.

Stranger things have happened.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It looks pretty legit actually.

Our History

Learn about the development and history of the Robert Graham Center, a center for policy studies in family medicine and primary care.

www.graham-center.org

Follow the money...where does the funding come from?
That’s the important indicator

 

[hopemax]

The same number of people could die from âdeaths of despairâ as have already died in the U.S. from coronavirus, new study finds

‘More Americans could lose their lives to deaths of despair, deaths due to drug, alcohol, and suicide, if we do not do something immediately.’

www.marketwatch.com

View attachment 469505

From the above article

I won’t disagree with the concern, it is valid. I see others are concerned with the legitimacy but people shouldn’t. The disagreement is how to deal with it. Social services need a lot more support. A lot more funding. Now more than ever. But that is a sacred cow.

These people will continue to remain at risk. It’s not like reopening solves the problems. Kids living in abusive homes are still living in an abusive home if they go back to school. Theoretically they have more advocates and opportunity to have their situation dealt with. People will continue to lose their jobs from the demand shock. So suicides and addiction will remain higher. Facing a backdrop where states have to slash their budgets and the services that will be needed.

I am pessimistic that the chunk of people who ignored these concerns before the virus, and are “oh so concerned” about the effects now, will stand up and fight for what is needed to really address the underlying situations. I think this group is mostly concerned with putting the carpet back over these people, the virus and shutdowns ripped off, so they can go back to not thinking aout them or outright blaming them for their circumstances. Like during the financial crisis when austerity was the word of the moment.

There are people that are legitimately concerned and were fighting for solutions before, and will continue to fight for them. They don’t want these people to be left behind. I think they want real, long lasting solutions though. Not to be used as a justification to take the path where other people die.

 

[jpeden]

We don’t have a vaccine for any other Coronavirus.

Yeah people keep forgetting this little fact. There has never been a successful Coronavirus vaccine - and there’s a large chance there won’t be one for SARS-CoV-2. The attempts to create one for SARS and MERS, as well as the cold, have all failed. On top of that, studies are starting to show inoculation against the disease may not be possible, so a vaccine is less likely to be the answer than most people realize.

Therapeutics are really the only chance, and we seem to be seeing good news on several fronts for that. We won’t wait to return to mostly normal society until their is a vaccine. It very well could put the worldwide economy into a state worse than the Great Depression. I don’t think Disney will be back to normal until later this year, but I don’t think it will be 2021 either.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yeah people keep forgetting this little fact. There has never been a successful Coronavirus vaccine - and there’s a large chance there won’t be one for SARS-CoV-2. The attempts to create one for SARS and MERS, as well as the cold, have all failed. On top of that, studies are starting to show inoculation against the disease may not be possible, so a vaccine is less likely to be the answer than most people realize.

Therapeutics are really the only chance, and we seem to be seeing good news on several fronts for that. We won’t wait to return to mostly normal society until their is a vaccine. It very well could put the worldwide economy into a state worse than the Great Depression. I don’t think Disney will be back to normal until later this year, but I don’t think it will be 2021 either.

There has never been more than an academic attempt at a vaccine for SARS or the coronaviruses that are part of the common cold. SARS disappeared and the cold is not severe enough. The Oxford group that’s working on the current vaccine had a MERS vaccine through the beginning phases of trials but they had trouble finding places to test it. MERS is rare and outbreaks are not widespread. It’s illegal to intentionally infect a person with a virus. There are more resources and brainpower dedicated to this vaccine than any time in history. I haven’t seen any studies that show a vaccine isn’t possible.

Therapeutics are great for critically ill patients. There will hopefully be some more progress there to bridge the gap until a vaccine is created. The fact of the matter is you can’t force people to go back to “normal” life immediately. There’s no magic light switch. If people don’t feel safe the economy and especially travel and leisure will continue to struggle greatly. People started to alter their behavior before any government mandated orders were issued. The best hope for a full economic recovery is a vaccine. Without one we are looking at a long, hard number of years.

 

[Tom P.]

The makers of Remdesivir have given millions to Fauci's organization. It is an expensive drug. Hydroxychloroquine is used successfully thoughout the world. Saint Fauci's aproval could not possibly be linked to the amount of money manufacturer's donate?

No, it couldn't.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Two friends of ours just cancelled their June trip.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The makers of Remdesivir have given millions to Fauci's organization. It is an expensive drug. Hydroxychloroquine is used successfully thoughout the world. Saint Fauci's aproval could not possibly be linked to the amount of money manufacturer's donate?

If you’re going to imply someone or a group of people are on the take on this...I can guarantee you a few to pan out without blinking an eye...

Now stop with the nonsense please before it turns into a war...again...for no reason

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Two friends of ours just cancelled their June trip.

Were they trying to beat Disney CRO to it?

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

Two friends of ours just cancelled their June trip.

We're a few days away from canceling ours in favor of a beach somewhere. No Bueno...

 

[surfsupdon]

We're a few days away from canceling ours in favor of a beach somewhere. No Bueno...

Fortunately we live on the beach and our beach never closed. We are really looking forward to our WDW trip in June/July. If it doesn’t happen, we are thinking Charleston in August. And WDW when they do eventually open.

 

[Epcotbob]

I see that Florida is permitting barber shops and hair salons to open tomorrow. They were originally part of phase 2, but have been moved up.

I bet we will see Florida move to full phase 2 within a week or two and phase 3 sometime in June.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

Watched a few videos of Shanghai Disneyland and other than not being super crowded and everyone wearing a mask, it looks absolutely normal. I'd be all over that like a fat kid on a cupcake.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

The fact of the matter is you can’t force people to go back to “normal” life immediately. There’s no magic light switch. If people don’t feel safe the economy and especially travel and leisure will continue to struggle greatly.

This needs to be repeated constantly. People must have forgotten how much travel was affected post 9/11.

As you say, if people don't feel comfortable doing something, they won't. You can't go back to "normal" overnight.