WDW Reopening Estimates

[Jrb1979]

My perspective is that if you booked a June 1 reservation you were doing one of 2 things.
First, you were playing the game and trying to get Disney to give you something for free (ie a benefit for booking something that you would never use but get something in return, ie free dining or resort credit of some sort).
OR
you truly thought you would/could travel then and then you will be disappointed.

Maybe but you know darn well a lot of people are going to angry about this. I look at how Universal is handling it and optics wise it looks much better. A big part of me thinks the only reason Disney did this was for the money.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Maybe but you know darn well a lot of people are going to angry about this. I look at how Universal is handling it and optics wise it looks much better. A big part of me thinks the only reason Disney did this was for the money.

EXACTLY! its because MONEY!

 

[england1]

Based in the UK l think the parks will open way before we are allowed to take a 9 hour flight to Florida, also with cast members living all over the place would this cause Disney problems getting staff back with no international flights

 

[peter11435]

I don't think we should assume they were planning much of anything before the closure based on how rapidly this situation changed. Just days before the park closures were announced, Disney was holding its annual shareholders meeting and announcing that Avengers Campus in DCA would open July 18.

Why would you do that if you have any inkling that you need to close for any length of time or radically alter your park operations?

I’m not assuming anything.

I KNOW there were teams at WDW that were tasked with planning potential social distancing implementation before the parks closed. Just as there were teams installing additional hand washing stations around the park. They have continued planning throughout the closure.

Publicly business needs to continue as normal until it doesn’t. But internally you prepare for many scenarios. Bob and Bob knew exactly what the possibilities were when they stood up and spoke at the shareholder meeting.

 

[peter11435]

I was there when it closed, and no, there was very little foreknowledge (at least what was put out to the guests). We didn't know till Saturday that all the parks were closing as of midnight Sunday. I wasn't going home till late afternoon Monday, so I was screwed out of a 1/2 day in the parks.

The closure was announced publicly Thursday night.

 

[Hawg G]

Disney has many other concerns than what is going on in Florida. What does the CDC say? What is the rest of the country looking like?

Nobody seriously thinks that without the proper testing there won't be a massive spike in these red states which are starting to open, without following the various guidelines suggested by health professionals.

Actually plenty DO seriously think that. Including Heraheypark, and others, that are saying they plan on early June openings.

Data supports that line of thought, pretty succinctly at this point.

 

[Jrb1979]

I’m not assuming anything.

I KNOW there were teams at WDW that were tasked with planning potential social distancing implementation before the parks closed. Just as there were teams installing additional hand washing stations around the park. They have continued planning throughout the closure.

Publicly business needs to continue as normal until it doesn’t. But internally you prepare for many scenarios. Bob and Bob knew exactly what the possibilities were when they stood up and spoke at the shareholder meeting.

Even so it still takes time to train CM"s in how to implement it as well change the system for queues. I can't see June or July. I'm thinking August the earliest but most likely late fall.

 

[UNCgolf]

Colorado is reopening in a similar way to GA but no public outcry about them. They are opening up hair salons, dental offices, and tattoo shops but Gov. Polis isn’t being drug through the mud on every news platform or being asked to defend his decisions. CO is also going to allow restaurants to open in mid May.

Reopening restaurants in mid May is very different than reopening them on Monday. Of course, some restaurants here are ignoring that and still not planning to open, but the ones that do have a significant chance of creating a large spike in cases (much moreso than places like dental office and tattoo parlors, which have far less people visiting them at any given time than a restaurant does at lunch/dinner).

 

[RollerCoaster]

I'll never understand where they get these dates from. What is going to be different between June and November that doesn't allow mass gatherings in June but does in November? I'll have to use my imagination but it makes absolutely no sense from the standpoint of an infectious disease that won't have a vaccine in that time frame.

The difference is herd immunity. You should read up on it.

Large gatherings create the possibility for the virus to spread quickly. By not allowing large gatherings the virus will continue to spread, but more slowly so that we don't overwhelm our medical system. Everyday more of us are infected and more of us recover creating the all-important herd immunity. The virus cannot survive when either a vaccine is created or enough of us have immunity and can no longer host it.

The idea behind reopening is that you slowly open up while still controlling the spread. We now have a better understanding of our capabilities and most medical systems are not overrun, so you test it out by creating situations that will allow for the spread to happen more quickly, but still controlled.

The infection rates in some areas of the country are low, but we need to accelerate them to get the all-important "herd immunity".

I suspect that Disney Parks are going to be closed for a long time. When some of you say June or July I laugh. Shanghai Disneyland Park is still closed. When that park reopens that will give us a better timeframe of how long it will take.

The other factor is our elected officials. I fully suspect that Florida parks will be able to open far before California, even if the infection rate in California is lower. The governor of California through his own statements appears unwilling to loosen the reins.

Another factor is when can the parks reopen and operate without incurring a loss. All of this talk of queue changes, elimination of fireworks, shows, and more is pure speculation from fans. The parks can operate at a reduced capacity, but how much?

If Disney opens and the people don't show up then would they be better off remaining closed?

 

[peter11435]

Even so it still takes time to train CM"s in how to implement it as well change the system for queues. I can't see June or July. I'm thinking August the earliest but most likely late fall.

Cast members can be trained to operate complex attractions in less than a week. They can certainly learn some new distancing practices in less time. If they decided today to open in early May (they won’t) they could. It will not take more than a week to 10 days to get open once the decision is made.

 

[Keith bylander]

So I was wondering what the general consensus of us Disney fans is for when Disney World will reopen.
Please take part in the poll for your guess and feel free to comment.

 

[clarabellej]

I vote for June, but I think it is very Wishful thinking. Hoping our Wishes have some power. My brother just messaged me this morning that Germany has cancelled this year’s Oktoberfest. That does not bode well for how long this nightmare will last. I am dreaming of Disney these days. What I wouldn’t give to just be worried about petty things. We made an annual trip in the Spring from the time my youngest turned 5. She will be 19 this August. Oh how I miss those trips!!!! I am on Ebay & ShopDisney everyday, just searching Disney merch to keep hope alive.

 

[Moka]

Honestly, can't really say anything at this point. Anything can happen with these companies, and anything can happen with the virus. The only thing I've been doing is sitting back, watching, and hoping for the best.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Based in the UK l think the parks will open way before we are allowed to take a 9 hour flight to Florida, also with cast members living all over the place would this cause Disney problems getting staff back with no international flights

This is a good point. Will WDW synchronize their opening with the airlines, or open early in some capacity? I will stick with my original opinion of June 1

BUT

This brings up an issue. If you booked a visit to WDW in June, and WDW is “open” in June, but the only way to get to WDW is by plane and there are no planes, you obviously can’t use the vacation you booked. In this case I really hope Disney does the right thing for the guests, and give them the option of a full refund.

 

[VaderTron]

The difference is herd immunity. You should read up on it.

Large gatherings create the possibility for the virus to spread quickly. By not allowing large gatherings the virus will continue to spread, but more slowly so that we don't overwhelm our medical system. Everyday more of us are infected and more of us recover creating the all-important herd immunity. The virus cannot survive when either a vaccine is created or enough of us have immunity and can no longer host it.

The idea behind reopening is that you slowly open up while still controlling the spread. We now have a better understanding of our capabilities and most medical systems are not overrun, so you test it out by creating situations that will allow for the spread to happen more quickly, but still controlled.

The infection rates in some areas of the country are low, but we need to accelerate them to get the all-important "herd immunity".

I suspect that Disney Parks are going to be closed for a long time. When some of you say June or July I laugh. Shanghai Disneyland Park is still closed. When that park reopens that will give us a better timeframe of how long it will take.

The other factor is our elected officials. I fully suspect that Florida parks will be able to open far before California, even if the infection rate in California is lower. The governor of California through his own statements appears unwilling to loosen the reins.

Another factor is when can the parks reopen and operate without incurring a loss. All of this talk of queue changes, elimination of fireworks, shows, and more is pure speculation from fans. The parks can operate at a reduced capacity, but how much?

If Disney opens and the people don't show up then would they be better off remaining closed?

Herd immunity cannot be rapidly acquired under social distancing measures. These measures slow the spread to control numbers needing medical attention. It does not provide time for herd immunity. We have MAYBE 3% of the population in the US that have recovered from the virus. That is lightyears away from the percentage needed for herd immunity. We will not get there by the end of the year with social distancing measures in place. The risk will be the same then as it is now to anyone who has not already recovered from the virus.

What is more likely to happen is more people will get tired of social distancing and we will have more outbreaks and spikes in infections. That will get us closer to herd immunity, but will leave a trail of bodies in its wake. I would say (pure guess) 20% chance we get to herd immunity this year.

 

[GhostHost1000]

They won’t call cast members back to work until about a week before reopening. It won’t take that long to get most things ready. Small
Crews are still there doing the minimum required. They’ve been planning social distancing measures since before they closed.

won't they need more time than this? reinspect rides, any maintenance, restock restaurants, etc.

 

[Disstevefan1]

WDW is taking bookings where the start date is June 1, so until they change that, lets assume they will open June 1.

Lets say they want to limit capacity. What would be the "limited capacity" for the Magic Kingdom?
What is that magic number?
It CANT be numbers as large as the Christmas and halloween parties, those are MOBBED!

The next question is will/how will Disney limit capacity? OK block resident annuals. Is this enough? I have seen posters that say APs equate to rounding errors they are so insignificant.

Only admit onsite guests?
What about the off site hotels that Disney partnered with that gives Extra magic hours and 60 day FP bookings, are they in?

Lets say that's it. Allow only on site and the 13 offsite partner hotels.

This still brings us back to the first question. How will Disney limit the capacity to a given park on a given day?

The more you think about it, the more questions come up....

 

[MEyeSeeKayEY]

My guess is that they will open the resorts in stages to limit capacity and gradually bring it back that way.

 

[Scubacat]

This brings up an issue. If you booked a visit to WDW in June, and WDW is “open” in June, but the only way to get to WDW is by plane and there are no planes, you obviously can’t use the vacation you booked. In this case I really hope Disney does the right thing for the guests, and give them the option of a full refund.

It says on the main homepage notice that they're waiving change and cancellation fees through June 30th, so that wouldn't be a problem. I'm sure that flexibility will be extended if the situation necessitates it.

 

[Djsfantasi]

I'll never understand where they get these dates from. What is going to be different between June and November that doesn't allow mass gatherings in June but does in November? I'll have to use my imagination but it makes absolutely no sense from the standpoint of an infectious disease that won't have a vaccine in that time frame.

Your’s is the first post to make me react. There will be NO vaccine until May-June, 2021. No amount of pixie dust is going to change science. Some things can’t be rushed. Tell that to a young mother having a hard time. She may want the baby ‘right now’, but even God can’t make that happen.

The same science explains why mass gatherings might take place in November, but not in June. Infectious diseases follow an exponential function in their distribution and resolution. It’s the same pregnancy rule, only exponentially larger.



Let’s all do what we can to limit the disease and to stay alive.