WDW during a Recession / Economic Downturn

[Kamikaze]

They could well be BS for future bookings. Right now they could have lots of rooms booked.

So are they BS or are they booked?

This is what I think he was talking about. Future bookings for summer were trending up during the last quarter call. IMO why some are sceptical that bookings are looking strong for fall is due to the amount of discounts and offers they have out there. They don't offer kids eat free for a whole year just cause.

I don't know who that is, I'm talking about @Sirwalterraleigh

Discounting would increase the number of bookings. They aren't talking revenue/profit, just the number of rooms booked. The insinuation is that the estimated number of future bookings is a lie.

 

[larryz]

The insinuation is that the estimated number of future bookings is a lie.

 

[Jrb1979]

So are they BS or are they booked?


I don't know who that is, I'm talking about @Sirwalterraleigh

Discounting would increase the number of bookings. They aren't talking revenue/profit, just the number of rooms booked. The insinuation is that the estimated number of future bookings is a lie.

That quote was to show how originally they talked about summer bookings being up and how quickly that all changed with a bunch of cancellations.

They aren't necessarily lying but they also aren't telling the whole truth either. For all we know, based on how many rooms are booked for fall now, it's projected to be higher than they thought. Doesn't mean those rooms are booked but it's trending that way.

Disney isn't necessarily lying, they are good at spinning numbers to make things look better.

 

[Tha Realest]

This is what Disney actually said in their quarterly:

Domestic Parks and Experiences

Operating results at our domestic parks and experiences increased compared to the prior-year quarter primarily due to growth at our domestic parks and resorts and, to a lesser extent, Disney Vacation Club and Disney Cruise Line reflecting:

• Higher volumes attributable to increases in passenger cruise days, theme park attendance, occupied room nights and Disney Vacation Club unit sales. Additional passenger cruise days reflected the launch of the Disney Treasure in the first quarter of the current year
• An increase in guest spending due to higher spending at our theme parks

To those of your who noted they conflated WDW and DL…*ding ding ding*. Note how they parsed out the differences in the Q2 2024 between WDW, DCL, and DL:

Domestic Parks and Experiences

The increase in operating income at our domestic parks and experiences was due to higher results at Walt Disney World Resort and Disney Cruise Line, partially offset by lower results at Disneyland Resort.

• At Walt Disney World Resort, higher results in the current quarter compared to the prior-year quarter were due to:
  • Increased guest spending attributable to higher average ticket prices
  • Higher costs due to inflation, partially offset by lower depreciation and cost saving initiatives
• Growth at Disney Cruise Line was due to an increase in average ticket prices, partially offset by higher costs
• The decrease in operating results at Disneyland Resort was due to:
  • Higher costs driven by inflation
  • An increase in guest spending attributable to higher average ticket prices and daily hotel room rates
  • Higher volumes due to attendance growth, partially offset by lower occupied room nights

So, some differences stand out:

• "increase in guest spending due to higher spending at our theme parks" (2025) vs "(i)ncreased guest spending attributable to higher average ticket prices." (2024). Reading between the lines - and because ticket prices did not really jump exponentially between 2024-25 - this seems likely due to increased LL revenue, likely Lightning Lane Premium Pass and the like.
• "Higher volumes attributable to increases in passenger cruise days, theme park attendance, occupied room nights and Disney Vacation Club unit sales." (2025). Good luck parsing out all of that. We have to assume, cumulatively, that those aggregate numbers in 2025 are an increase over 2024. Passenger cruise days is easy when you consider they brought a new ship online in late 2024/early 2025; that's a lot of new days/guests. Likewise, the "occupied room nights and Disney Vacation Club unit sales" conflation is an interesting one, as 1) they presumably took the cabins at Fort Wilderness out of the "occupied room nights" calculation,* and 2) since Q2 2024, Disney brought online two new DVCs - The Cabins at Fort Wilderness and The Island Tower at Polynesian Villas Resort.
• That leaves us with trying to make sense of the "theme park attendance" portion of the higher volumes bullet point. The Q2 2024 went to a lot of trouble to parse the WDW and DL numbers, and they did not do so in 2025. One would suspect they would have if it benefitted them. I feel this amounts to a lot of hand waiving, with the Disney Treasure, DVC at Fort Wilderness and Poly, and a bit more of DL carrying their weight lifting all of the boats (WDW). So, while they do say "increases in ... theme park attendance" they do not say where these increases occurred.
• TLDR: DL could see an increase in actual attendance, @lentesta could percieve a softness in current attendance and future bookings, and they could both be right (e.g., DL is up 15% in attendance, wherease WDW is down 12% in attendance).

* We won't know how they recalculate this until the 2025 annual report; in the 2024 annual report they reported an 85% occupancy and 10,193 Available Room Nights, which is defined as "the total number of room nights that are available at our hotels and at DVC properties located at our theme parks and resorts that are not utilized by DVC members."

 

[Club Cooloholic]

 

[Tha Realest]

This is what Disney actually said in their quarterly:


To those of your who noted they conflated WDW and DL…*ding ding ding*. Note how they parsed out the differences in the Q2 2024 between WDW, DCL, and DL:



So, some differences stand out:

• "increase in guest spending due to higher spending at our theme parks" (2025) vs "(i)ncreased guest spending attributable to higher average ticket prices." (2024). Reading between the lines - and because ticket prices did not really jump exponentially between 2024-25 - this seems likely due to increased LL revenue, likely Lightning Lane Premium Pass and the like.
• "Higher volumes attributable to increases in passenger cruise days, theme park attendance, occupied room nights and Disney Vacation Club unit sales." (2025). Good luck parsing out all of that. We have to assume, cumulatively, that those aggregate numbers in 2025 are an increase over 2024. Passenger cruise days is easy when you consider they brought a new ship online in late 2024/early 2025; that's a lot of new days/guests. Likewise, the "occupied room nights and Disney Vacation Club unit sales" conflation is an interesting one, as 1) they presumably took the cabins at Fort Wilderness out of the "occupied room nights" calculation,* and 2) since Q2 2024, Disney brought online two new DVCs - The Cabins at Fort Wilderness and The Island Tower at Polynesian Villas Resort.
• That leaves us with trying to make sense of the "theme park attendance" portion of the higher volumes bullet point. The Q2 2024 went to a lot of trouble to parse the WDW and DL numbers, and they did not do so in 2025. One would suspect they would have if it benefitted them. I feel this amounts to a lot of hand waiving, with the Disney Treasure, DVC at Fort Wilderness and Poly, and a bit more of DL carrying their weight lifting all of the boats (WDW). So, while they do say "increases in ... theme park attendance" they do not say where these increases occurred.
• TLDR: DL could see an increase in actual attendance, @lentesta could percieve a softness in current attendance and future bookings, and they could both be right (e.g., DL is up 15% in attendance, wherease WDW is down 12% in attendance).

* We won't know how they recalculate this until the 2025 annual report; in the 2024 annual report they reported an 85% occupancy and 10,193 Available Room Nights, which is defined as "the total number of room nights that are available at our hotels and at DVC properties located at our theme parks and resorts that are not utilized by DVC members."

Put another way...

• "Higher volumes attributable to increases in passenger cruise days, theme park attendance, occupied room nights and Disney Vacation Club unit sales."
  • "passenger cruise days" (+ Disney Treasure)
  • "occupied room nights" (- Cabins from equation?)
  • "Disney Vacation Club unit sales" (+ new revenue from Cabins at Fort Wilderness and Island Tower)
  • "theme park attendance" (DL increases slightly overcome decreased WDW attendance???)

 

[FutureCEO]

There's probably not much reason for airlines to drop prices. While airline travel isn't cheap, it's usually only a fraction of any overall travel budget -- I don't think there are very many people who aren't going on a trip solely because of airfare.

My guess is lowering prices would not cause any significant increase in travelers; they'd just get less money from the people who were going to travel anyways.

Now if they were suddenly selling round trip ticket to major destinations for $75 they'd likely see an uptick, but selling 4 tickets at $75 vs. 1 at $500 isn't helpful.

I just flew to London. My flight was $100 less than last time flying (Sept/Oct). Different airline though.

To fly my favorite plane. Airbus 380...it would have cost me more though. A few empty seats but not enough where I would say travel was declining by a lot.

 

[DisneyHead123]

I wonder if group bookings / room blocks are an additional lever Disney can pull to get bookings up. Negotiating with groups to bring conferences in, things like that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So are they BS or are they booked?


I don't know who that is, I'm talking about @Sirwalterraleigh

Discounting would increase the number of bookings. They aren't talking revenue/profit, just the number of rooms booked. The insinuation is that the estimated number of future bookings is a lie.

If that’s true it’s actually a good thing

The mistake they’ve made the last 7 years is insisting they can bring the Market to the price when it’s their responsibility to bring the price to the market

Econ 1…day 1.

So bobs plan is failing…as it always was going to. Basic market dynamics

Parks work by getting people there. That’s the model…not a theory.

So they screwed up…price dynamics still screwed up…but maybe there’s some hope for the next 10 years under Bob?

You should be thrilled things are “herring better”…more money for bad KK mission statement movies

 

[Kamikaze]

If that’s true it’s actually a good thing

The mistake they’ve made the last 7 years is insisting they can bring the Market to the price when it’s their responsibility to bring the price to the market

They're making far more money now than ever. Thats not even debatable.

Econ 1…day 1.

So bobs plan is failing…as it always was going to. Basic market dynamics

Parks work by getting people there. That’s the model…not a theory.

Is it failing though? Is it? There might be this undercurrent of 'too expensive!!!!11one!!!', but the parks are busy and full.

So they screwed up…price dynamics still screwed up…but maybe there’s some hope for the next 10 years under Bob?

I wonder what you're going to say when they announce the new CEO. I mean, I know you're going to say its a bad choice no matter who it is, but you won't be able to complain about Perpetual Bob anymore.

You should be thrilled things are “herring better”…more money for bad KK mission statement movies

You say that like we literally didn't just get the best live action SW content that exists.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They're making far more money now than ever. Thats not even debatable.

Is it failing though? Is it? There might be this undercurrent of 'too expensive!!!!11one!!!', but the parks are busy and full.

It’s not busy…I can meet you there and show you how and why you can tell…which is a skill it seems in short supply these days…

The parks are a “gateway” to easy money. As in the stuff people spend after they get there. The profits are not in room charges and ridiculous ticket fees…it’s foolish to discourage people with those

Now lightning lane? That literally is money for nothing…but it’s also the reason they are still posting increasing numbers AND alienating customers they’ll have to account for in the future

I wonder what you're going to say when they announce the new CEO. I mean, I know you're going to say its a bad choice no matter who it is, but you won't be able to complain about Perpetual Bob anymore.

First I’ll say: “I’m wrong…GREAT!!”

Because I’ve Been more than clear of how big a problem this archaic, bad management has been. It will take a decade to evade all the mines they’ve buried with bad ideas.

But then…I’ll see it’s some internal tool that’s beholden to a puppet board controlled by Iger…and it will be sad

You say that like we literally didn't just get the best live action SW content that exists.

Indeed we did. And it took forever for them to knock it off with the sequel era GARBAGE and get back to characters and plot lines instead of appearances.

I’ll also note…she lost her awful story group and hand selected manboy directors…so now it seems there is more “equilibrium” to what gets the geeenlight? Corporate could never be happy paying for so much nobody watched and killed sales…like the acolyte

 

[Chef Mickey]

They're making far more money now than ever. Thats not even debatable.

Is it failing though? Is it? There might be this undercurrent of 'too expensive!!!!11one!!!', but the parks are busy and full.

I wonder what you're going to say when they announce the new CEO. I mean, I know you're going to say its a bad choice no matter who it is, but you won't be able to complain about Perpetual Bob anymore.

You say that like we literally didn't just get the best live action SW content that exists.

Parks? Yeah. The company isn't making more money than ever though. Parks just used pricing power and it's a bit sad, actually. We're charged more for less than we got probably 10 years ago - definitely less than 20 years ago.

The new CEO can't come soon enough.

 

[Kamikaze]

Parks? Yeah. The company isn't making more money than ever though. Parks just used pricing power and it's a bit sad, actually. We're charged more for less than we got probably 10 years ago - definitely less than 20 years ago.

The new CEO can't come soon enough.

No, no, they literally are. The last quarter (Q1 2025 not the one just reported) was the highest revenue quarter in the company's history.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No, no, they literally are. The last quarter (Q1 2025 not the one just reported) was the highest revenue quarter in the company's history.

Are you familiar with these terms:

Overhead increases
Currency depreciation

??

Just as the D+ money looks like it’s big compared to a 1999 cable revenue…it actually goes a fraction of that distance

I always trip up on this: are we supposed to pay 300% of what we did 20 years ago (hint: we do) because the costs have gone up in conjunction with the price increases?

…or is Bob just that smart and he keeps so much gravy it totally explains why the stock is trading at its 2015 price (and that’s on a “high”). Total blue ocean

Careful how you answer…

Investors just don’t like brilliant tv hack CEOs and huge returns on investment?

…when did that start?

 

[Chi84]

It’s not busy…I can meet you there and show you how and why you can tell

If the parks aren’t busy, shouldn’t everyone be able to see this without help?

 

[Chef Mickey]

No, no, they literally are. The last quarter (Q1 2025 not the one just reported) was the highest revenue quarter in the company's history.

Revenue isn't "making money."

Their TTM profit is still lower than in 2019. Hence, the stock has returned negative returns over 10 years. Ridiculous.

Iger has been one of the worst CEOs of the last 10 years.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If the parks aren’t busy, shouldn’t everyone be able to see this without help?

No…because they’re glued to a wait time app that was designed SPECIFICALLY to promote the sale of a “product” without shape or substance.

And also the current crop of yutzes have gutted the ability of the parks to distribute and move crowds around…which they were specifically designed to do.

It’s not just DAS…and the loss of diversions without lines…or the jacking of table service prices to the point where people don’t use them…or the shortening of hours to push upsell tickets…

It’s a methodical death by 1000 cuts

I’ll see it again soon…light feet on mainstreet…half the tables empty at crystal palace at 12 pm…on a weekend in the travel season…

But a 90 minute wait for mine train


Packed…just Mobbed. Unprecedented demand

 

[Lilofan]

I think I did…tongue in cheek

Well you did say Disney was lying.

So when one gets caught in a fib , damage control - is meant to be a joke ?

 

[mysto]

During the next recession Disney will have to come crawling back to us, hat in hand, offering us cheap unlimited admission and extensive perks.

I guess we are not in a recession yet. I wonder how long the wait will be, and will it be bad enough for all our dreams to be realized?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

During the next recession Disney will have to come crawling back to us, hat in hand, offering us cheap unlimited admission and extensive perks.

I guess we are not in a recession yet. I wonder how long the wait will be, and will it be bad enough for all our dreams to be realized?

They already have gone too far In that direction for what they have promised their Investors

But they are making dvc the hill they’ll die on
Nothing like a hostage situation