Walt Disney World Park Attendance Numbers

[WDWFigment]

Executives said attendance at Disney's U.S. theme parks is down 1 percent so far in the current quarter and that bookings for the first two quarters of fiscal 2009 are down "a little under 10 percent" from last year.

"We are seeing a marketplace that is clearly tougher than it was in fiscal year 2008 and our ability to predict is very limited," Iger said.

He added, however, that consumers may be taking "a wait and see approach" to booking vacations next year. Typically, Disney said, consumers plan vacations 10 to 12 weeks in advance.

Caris & Co analyst David Miller saw a positive note in the fact that bookings in the current quarter were down just 1 percent versus last year's record attendance.

"People thought attendance would be down much harder," Miller said. "I think the stock price is reflecting Armageddon at the parks. Of course the parks are going to slow, but is that deserving of $20 a share?"

The quoted is entirely about Walt Disney World, and other Disney theme parks. I know several of these threads have already been created.

Discuss.

 

[DisneyMusician2]

Translation:

We can't fill all of our rooms or sell most of our DVC. We are offering DEEP discounts to new travelers night now. We're not sure how much money we can make, so some upgrade plans may be out the window.

And I may assault employees who ask me about the 40th celebration in the hallway.

 

[stitch2008]

"People thought attendance would be down much harder," Miller said.

Maybe thats what that blog post that is being talked about in the Fantasy Land 2009 thread was talking about. The blog said something about "higher than expected room nights at the resorts". Maybe the room bookings havent dropped as much as perdicted; yet.

 

[DisneyMusician2]

Maybe thats what that blog post that is being talked about in the Fantasy Land 2009 thread was talking about. The blog said something about "higher than expected room nights at the resorts". Maybe the room bookings havent dropped as much as perdicted; yet.

If proof is needed of the continued booking problems, simply look to the buy four nights, get 3 free offer currently in place after the holidays

 

[captainkidd]

I'd like to know who the typical person is Disney is referring to that plans their vacation 10-12 weeks in advance. I don't know about any of you, but I generally need a bit more time than 2.5 months to plan and pay for a vacation.

 

[NewfieFan]

I'd like to know who the typical person is Disney is referring to that plans their vacation 10-12 weeks in advance. I don't know about any of you, but I generally need a bit more time than 2.5 months to plan and pay for a vacation.

I was thinking the same thing! And considering some of the more popular restaurants are booked 4 - 6 months out... I'm guessing we're not the only ones planning vacations more than 10-12 weeks out!

I usually plan vacations a year in advance!

 

[WDWFigment]

What exactly does, "higher than expected room nights at the resorts," mean? This is the second time I've seen this phrase quoted, which surprises me, since I can't deduce its meaning. I think there is a word (or several) missing. :shrug:

 

[earldw28]

If proof is needed of the continued booking problems, simply look to the buy four nights, get 3 free offer currently in place after the holidays

This is exactly what I was thinking. I think this is the first time I have seen an offer like this from Disney.

 

[ToTBellHop]

With the economy crashing, I would've expected much more than a 10% drop--I would argue the Disney Parks seem to be much more resilient that some expected. I was on hold for about 40 minutes last night making a reservation for the stay 4 nights, get 3 free promotion, so I think they are getting a significant response and this could get numbers pretty close to 2008. They will of course make less money, but if these numbers are right, this doesn't seem THAT bad. Nothing like the post 9/11 drop off (though that was for COMPLETELY different reasons).

 

[DisneyMusician2]

This is exactly what I was thinking. I think this is the first time I have seen an offer like this from Disney.

I have never seen an offer like this that was a broad-blanket to anyone traveling at ANY TIME in the January to June timeframe. PLUS a $200 gift card for traveling from Jan-March? Unprecedented.

 

[WDWFigment]

With the economy crashing, I would've expected much more than a 10% drop--I would argue the Disney Parks seem to be much more resilient that some expected. I was on hold for about 40 minutes last night making a reservation for the stay 4 nights, get 3 free promotion, so I think they are getting a significant response and this could get numbers pretty close to 2008. They will of course make less money, but if these numbers are right, this doesn't seem THAT bad. Nothing like the post 9/11 drop off (though that was for COMPLETELY different reasons).

I was thinking about this last night when people were discussing Disney already selling out of Pop Century for many dates, and was hoping someone would bring this up.

I think you're right to an extent, but also consider this:

1) While Disney may be getting slammed right now, it was just announced, so I imagine there will be a huge drop off in the coming days.

2) How many of those people booked once they found out the values were no longer available? In looking at some posts on Slick Deals, a lot of people did not book once they heard a price.

3) How many of these people will cancel their reservations once they realize their circumstances don't allow the trip.

4) What is the availability of the more expensive resorts. I'd hazard a guess that some people who would normally book a higher level of resort are scaling back.

Basically, I'm asking how many people who called last night will actually end up in WDW during the deal. My bet would be around 50% or less. Also, how many rooms, overall, are still available? I think deeper discounts are on the way. My guess is the reason they didn't announce a deal for June - November yet is because they're taking a wait-and-see approach. I would be surprised if the June - November (or whenever) deal beats this.

On an unrelated note, Southwest Airlines ticket prices continue to drop for late November and early December. We originally paid $216 per round trip ticket, and I have changed the reservations four times now (maintaining the same dates and times), making the tickets only $144 per round trip. I know that's not a direct indicator of Disney bookings for Christmas, but some of that drop (I would assume) is related.

 

[cpeterstx]

I would say that the weak dollar has welcomed more foreign tourists to the World but with the markets and economies slowing down all over the globe, I would also think it would be down more than 10%...

 

[MousDad]

"consumers may be taking "a wait and see approach" to booking vacations next year"

Translation: "HOLY CRAP we're screwed in 2009 unless the phones start ringing!!!!! Here, have 3 free nights. Oh, and here's and extra $200 also."

 

[ToTBellHop]

I was thinking about this last night when people were discussing Disney already selling out of Pop Century for many dates, and was hoping someone would bring this up.

I think you're right to an extent, but also consider this:

1) While Disney may be getting slammed right now, it was just announced, so I imagine there will be a huge drop off in the coming days.

2) How many of those people booked once they found out the values were no longer available? In looking at some posts on Slick Deals, a lot of people did not book once they heard a price.

3) How many of these people will cancel their reservations once they realize their circumstances don't allow the trip.

4) What is the availability of the more expensive resorts. I'd hazard a guess that some people who would normally book a higher level of resort are scaling back.

Basically, I'm asking how many people who called last night will actually end up in WDW during the deal. My bet would be around 50% or less. Also, how many rooms, overall, are still available? I think deeper discounts are on the way. My guess is the reason they didn't announce a deal for June - November yet is because they're taking a wait-and-see approach. I would be surprised if the June - November (or whenever) deal beats this.

On an unrelated note, Southwest Airlines ticket prices continue to drop for late November and early December. We originally paid $216 per round trip ticket, and I have changed the reservations four times now (maintaining the same dates and times), making the tickets only $144 per round trip. I know that's not a direct indicator of Disney bookings for Christmas, but some of that drop (I would assume) is related.

I agree with what you say and we have no numbers to look at, I just think even with 50% of callers showing up, Disney could potentially make up that 10% drop in attendance.

They actually lose money on people like me--I was going on my honeymoon regardless and had already booked, so I just called them up and will now save $430, which is nice.

As for airfares, I know ticket sales are down, but there would also be a bit of outrage from the public if fares didn't drop since oil costs less than half of what it did in July. Still waiting for the checked bag fees to be dropped...I could be waiting a long time. Sigh.

 

[MousDad]

I agree with what you say and we have no numbers to look at, I just think even with 50% of callers showing up, Disney could potentially make up that 10% drop in attendance.

They actually lose money on people like me--I was going on my honeymoon regardless and had already booked, so I just called them up and will now save $430, which is nice.

As for airfares, I know ticket sales are down, but there would also be a bit of outrage from the public if fares didn't drop since oil costs less than half of what it did in July. Still waiting for the checked bag fees to be dropped...I could be waiting a long time. Sigh.

You bring up a good point. I always wonder how many new ressies they need to make just to break even on offers like these after all the existing ressie holders call back and get the discount.

 

[tirian]

What exactly does, "higher than expected room nights at the resorts," mean? This is the second time I've seen this phrase quoted, which surprises me, since I can't deduce its meaning. I think there is a word (or several) missing. :shrug:

It's purposely vague to avoid saying, "Bookings for 2009 are extremely low."

 

[WDWFigment]

It's purposely vague to avoid saying, "Bookings for 2009 are extremely low."

Yeah, but what exactly is a "room night"? I think they just generally mean resort reservations, but is this referred to as a "room night"? I have never heard that term used.

 

[Jaytrod]

I'd like to know who the typical person is Disney is referring to that plans their vacation 10-12 weeks in advance. I don't know about any of you, but I generally need a bit more time than 2.5 months to plan and pay for a vacation.

it must be floridians. I live in south Florida and I usually make mine about 4-6 weeks in advance. Gives you less time to wait for it to come.

 

[DisneyMusician2]

You bring up a good point. I always wonder how many new ressies they need to make just to break even on offers like these after all the existing ressie holders call back and get the discount.

I would imagine they are hoping to make up for the hotel losses in food and gift revenue from an increased number of people. They probably make more from merchandise anyway.

 

[tirian]

Yeah, but what exactly is a "room night"? I think they just generally mean resort reservations, but is this referred to as a "room night"? I have never heard that term used.

Could it be yet another example that execs are actually normal people with questionable grammar? :shrug:


:lol: