If (and that’s a big if) this makes fastpass less appealing that could be a good thing if the queue dynamics are altered accordingly to accommodate more standby. Queues should move more freely.
If the status quo stays the same it will mean another revenue generating stream and as posted above will be a step closer to a have and have not scenario. And do nothing for park capacity or guest experience.
Details and costing are still not clear but something different is definitely coming as things stand.
This will certainly be interesting to watch how it pans out. And then some.
Hopefully a return to capping park attendance when needed.The problem is they have in the ballpark of 25%+ more raw attendance now than the did when they implemented fastpass...and they haven’t “added” much of a net gain in attractions...
So if it dumps people back into standard lines...what exactly does that look like??
Honestly there are still a surprising number of guests that already think fastpass isn’t free.It is going to be like watching a train wreck happen in slow motion. This is going to be one of those changes that every guest will notice. “You mean I have to pay extra for that now?” Onsite resort guests get the biggest “FU” because their $500/night room is just that a $500/night room with no tangible perks anymore.
I’m not an expert in queuing theory, but wasn’t the entire concept of FP to enhance utilization and spread the lines out? On a popular attraction there would be a longer wait, but fewer people in the standby line. Seems like this new direction being taken is saying that FP really didn’t have any advantage after all and the old system worked best. Seems like a step backwards. But as mentioned it will be the haves va the have nots.
Hopefully a return to capping park attendance when needed.
I agree on all points.
Let's hypothesize the following:
And it's all these small disincentives that I hope will add up to reducing the number of multiple-same-attraction-rides-per-visit that we see now, which will end up decreasing the share of capacity taken up by FastPass, which will enable more capacity to be available to the Standby queue.
- Off the bat, 1 FP vs 3 means that Disney will start off issuing 1/3rd as many complimentary FastPasses. Given the speculated 80% share of capacity, this means that complimentary FastPass will only have a 27% share of capacity.
- Let's also speculate that only half of the guests will buy the additional 3 FastPasses. This would represent 33% of capacity. I think 50% is high because all guests currently get 3 FastPasses per day, and I'd guess that at least half of them are price-sensitive. I'd guess that the onsite guests are less price sensitive and will have >50% uptake and offsite guests will be more price sensitive and will be satisfied with their one FastPass.
- This means the hypothetical new system would only give out 60% of the FastPasses compared to the 80% of the old system. The good thing is that this doubles the amount of capacity available to Standby.
- The other aspect of this that I think is significant is seasonality. I'm thinking that the crowd levels of holidays and summer mean that we may only "need" to buy the FastPass package in Premier Season and Magic Season, while being able to forgo it during Adventure Season and Choice Season. So in a way, this is a way for Disney to monetize seasonality even more than they do currently.
- I also think the new system could be a way to differentiate "frequent casual visits" from "special visits". If I visit multiple times in a year, I could see myself being satisfied with one FastPass per day. Meanwhile, if I only visit less than once a year, I want every visit to count and so I might be more likely to purchase the FastPass package.
- An additional (dis)incentive is that even if I only visit infrequently, but I stay for two weeks, I might be satisfied with one FastPass per day since I'll probably be able to hit everything I want to ride at least once.
This could really be win-win because it would also reduce both the amount of advance planning and the resulting daily regimentation of schedule that everyone has to put up with now.
But enough with this silver-lining/glass-half-full thinking, let's get back to the doom and gloom predictions!
I'd say this is true of MOST changes they make -- and has been true for a long time. Some people have booked their trips 11 mos. out (DVC) and have made ADRs at 6 mos. out, then FP at 30 or 60 days out. Can definitely be irritating at times. Curious how far in advance you think they should have to announce changes, though? 6 mos.? 11 mos.?So, I just love it when Disney is going to make a change. A big one. Known for awhile. But they don't tell anyone. Until a month away, then BAM. And all the people who have been planning for a frick year are left going, "Whaaat just happened?". Sure, there were rumors. But most people don't read these threads, and even some of the ones who do (a la ME) hold out hope that the rumors are off. Never are. Disney did not used to announce changes at the last minute. They used to give people some time to make it back to an old favorite before it was gone forever. Or time to adjust plans to their already planned and half paid for vacation. WHY?! Why did they start on this wretched path of last minute announcements? There has already been discussion on the fact that for a DW vacation you have to plan months in advance. Would an early announcement be so bad? Like they are going to implement changes..... starting Jan. 2020? Not next month for lord's sake!
You have a lot of nerve saying this on one of these boards!!!!This could really be win-win
But then demand for this new product would go down.The only thing that will reduce wait times as you have said many times is increased ride capacity in each park. MK needed that canceled 2000 seat theater and more than just adding Tron. A major expansion outside of the existing park is needed. HS is going to be insane until they add 2 or 3 more expansions, an Indy Land, more Pixar and one or two Marvel rides. AK still needs another section on the land between Africa and Asia and Epcot speaks for itself.
But do you really need a leg up on booking Figment and LWTL?I would imagine the booking windows will stay the same. Surely on site guests would still get first option.
Capping attendance is not an answer. If both Disney and Universal capped attendance to a level that made lines reasonable people would stop going because too many people would fly down to Orlando, stay in expensive hotels and eat at restaurants. Disney and Universal draw over 70 million a year in combined attendance. That is almost 200,000 a day between 6 parks or just under 50,000 a day per park. There are only 3 parks that can fit that number and not feel crowded. MK, Epcot and AK.
What Disney needs is as stated many times by many people is more rides and attractions at all parks. That alone will not solve the long term problem without new gates. Both Disney and Universal will need new gates.
Getting back to Fast Pass and front of line access. Both companies face problems. Disney's is actually easier to solve because they don't promise unlimited fast passes to anyone while Universal promised unlimited front of line access to people staying in their deluxe resorts and sell it for a price. There is no doubt without major expansion at both companies parks due to all the new hotels and timeshares being built in Orlando that there will be major problems.
Personally I would be irritated to have it announced past the full refund cancelation window IF it significantly effected my stay.I'd say this is true of MOST changes they make -- and has been true for a long time. Some people have booked their trips 11 mos. out (DVC) and have made ADRs at 6 mos. out, then FP at 30 or 60 days out. Can definitely be irritating at times. Curious how far in advance you think they should have to announce changes, though? 6 mos.? 11 mos.?
I would expect the program would be phased in like the FP+ was. And some people would, after complaining and threatening to cancel, be "grandfathered."Personally I would be irritated to have it announced past the full refund cancelation window IF it significantly effected my stay.
I totally agree! We booked CL rooms this December in order to take advantage of the additional paid non-tiered FP's. If this is something now being offered to everyone, why should I stay in my CL room?? I'm seriously thinking of making another reservation not in CL, just in case. That's crazy!!Any approximate time frame these changes roll out? So frustrating when in the midst of planning a trip that I booked months ago and is still months away..
That's what I'd do in your place -- you can cancel without penalty when things become clearer. Not ideal for Disney from a room stock perspective to have many do this, but this is what you get when something like this is in the air and hanging over people's trips.I totally agree! We booked CL rooms this December in order to take advantage of the additional paid non-tiered FP's. If this is something now being offered to everyone, why should I stay in my CL room?? I'm seriously thinking of making another reservation not in CL, just in case. That's crazy!!
Disney needs to cannibalize attendance at MK and will need to at HS. There is no way for Disney to handle the growth they will experience without lots of additions at the current 4 parks and a 5th gate. Can you imagine 75 million people or more in the current 4 parks, even with addictions in all of them? I can and it's not a pretty sight.Disney is going to avoid new gates like the plague...
Each new one cannibalizes the old gate attendance and adds longterm guaranteed expenses that public companies no longer accept
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