Universal's Potential Growth (2014-2024)

[mahnamahna101]

Well, with Diagon Alley appearing to be a smash success in the making, Universal Orlando is in the spotlight... more importantly, at a turning point.
How much more can the parks grow?
Will they add a 3rd gate?
What would be a good theme for a 3rd gate?
Will they keep Wet n' Wild or close it for their new waterpark?
How many hotels will they add?

As someone who considers themselves a fan of both Universal and Disney, I tend to criticize both (Disney World the most - but it's out of love!). Universal has far less to complain about when you consider some of the things that are planned/rumored:

1. Kong E-ticket
2. CityWalk 2.0
3. Gardens of Allah interactive museum
4. Hotel #5
5. Updates to parade and nighttime show at USF
6. KidZone revamp/replacement
7. Mummy upgrade/refurb
8. JP expansion/JW overlay
9. Disaster replacement/overlay
10. Seuss expansion
11. Wondersea Island (game-changing waterpark) & potential 2nd CityWalk-esque area
12. Shrek replacement
13. Mystery plot expansion (by MIB and Springfield)
14. Potter 3.0
15. LC revamp/replacement
16. TL revamp/replacement
17. Potential 6th and 7th hotels
18. T2 3D upgrade/replacement
19. Twister upgrade/replacement
20. Eventual 3rd gate

So what's Universal's peak as far as attendance goes?

2014:

1. USF: 8.6 million
2. IOA: 8.6 million

2015:

1. USF: 9.4 million
2. IOA: 9.3 million

2016:

1. USF: 9.9 million
2. IOA: 9.8 million

2017:

1. USF: 10.2 million
2. IOA: 10.3 million

2018:

1. USF: 10.7 million
2. IOA: 10.9 million

2019:

1. USF: 11.1 million
2. IOA: 11.4 million

2020:

1. USF: 11.5 million
2. IOA: 11.6 million

2021:

1. USF: 11.7 million
2. IOA: 11.9 million

By MK's 50th... both parks could feasibly be in reach of 12 million. Say, the 3rd gate brings 12 million guests as well. The water park is game-changing so it brings in 5-6 million

That's 42 million - of course, this might be wishful thinking.

Where could you see Universal in 10 years?

 

[Tangled21]

Do you know for sure there will be a potter phase 3?

 

[kap91]

I can't see universal doing all 20 of those things in 10 years. I mean I know they're on a spending binge at the moment but they can't do it indefinitely.

That being said, they definitely have a lot of room to grow and I think the waterpark is a safe bet for that time period.

It's so weird for me seeing universal act like they have been because it's so different from how the universal I grew up with 10 minutes down the street acted. The one that literally did almost nothing my entire life. Figures I move away and they finally get some fire under their seat.

 

[kap91]

Do you know for sure there will be a potter phase 3?

Even if there are no current plans, with the guaranteed success they'd have even building something mediocre, and the sheer amount of material to draw on, they're bound to do it. It's when not if

 

[mahnamahna101]

Do you know for sure there will be a potter phase 3?

Aside from Kong, Hotel 5, CityWalk 2.0, the waterpark, KidZone revamp, and the Gardens of Allah museum, none of the stuff is locked in or anything. Just speculation/rumors that have been posted on here and Orlando United.

 

[mahnamahna101]

I can't see universal doing all 20 of those things in 10 years. I mean I know they're on a spending binge at the moment but they can't do it indefinitely.

That being said, they definitely have a lot of room to grow and I think the waterpark is a safe bet for that time period.

What could you see them adding over the next decade?

I agree that it would be extremely unlikely all of that comes in, especially when they still have to focus some attention on Hollywood, Japan, Singapore and any new parks they build. If we got 10-12, I'd call it an amazing decade though

 

[kap91]

What could you see them adding over the next decade?

I agree that it would be extremely unlikely all of that comes in, especially when they still have to focus some attention on Hollywood, Japan, Singapore and any new parks they build. If we got 10-12, I'd call it an amazing decade though

The waterpark and hotel(s) make the most sense and my guess would be that if they do that you'll see work at the existing parks mostly stop during that construction period.

I'd say the odds of potter 3 are pretty high after that considering what little is left of the LC and what has to be their desire to milk the property for all it's worth. But around that time period (4-7 years from now) is also when I think Comcast is likely to start feeling the sting of what at that point will be several billion dollars of investment in Orlando alone not to mention in la and japan. That makes me wonder if they'd slow down after the water park and go both at a slower pace and smaller scope, perhaps adding the dark ride to suessland or replacing twister or shrek - delaying any larger expansion until after the 10 year mark. It's hard to guess, right now they have so much room to grow because they fell so far down hill before and went so long without touching anything. The growth in attendance can't always grow at the rate hp1 caused and 2 will cause. And once it slows then they won't get the same kind of return on investment that has prompted their spending binge. Just trying to figure out when that will happen and what can be done in that time is difficult. And also whether they're willing to spend the same with that lesser return.

If I was running universal my next move would be to focus on doing a dca style revamp of both parks, but specifically the original - revamping the layout, entrance, facades etc to make it much prettier and make more sense than the ugly hodgepodge that currently exists especially at the front of the park. That wouldn't be specific attractions but would do wonders to making the parks actually nice places to be. My guess though is that their primary interest is hotels, and attendance increasing, capacity, additions (water park, and big attractions they can advertise)

 

[mahnamahna101]

The waterpark and hotel(s) make the most sense and my guess would be that if they do that you'll see work at the existing parks mostly stop during that construction period.

I'd say the odds of potter 3 are pretty high after that considering what little is left of the LC and what has to be their desire to milk the property for all it's worth. But around that time period (4-7 years from now) is also when I think Comcast is likely to start feeling the sting of what at that point will be several billion dollars of investment in Orlando alone not to mention in la and japan. That makes me wonder if they'd slow down after the water park and go both at a slower pace and smaller scope, perhaps adding the dark ride to suessland or replacing twister or shrek - delaying any larger expansion until after the 10 year mark. It's hard to guess, right now they have so much room to grow because they fell so far down hill before and went so long without touching anything. The growth in attendance can't always grow at the rate hp1 caused and 2 will cause. And once it slows then they won't get the same kind of return on investment that has prompted their spending binge. Just trying to figure out when that will happen and what can be done in that time is difficult. And also whether they're willing to spend the same with that lesser return.

If I was running universal my next move would be to focus on doing a dca style revamp of both parks, but specifically the original - revamping the layout, entrance, facades etc to make it much prettier and make more sense than the ugly hodgepodge that currently exists especially at the front of the park. That wouldn't be specific attractions but would do wonders to making the parks actually nice places to be. My guess though is that their primary interest is hotels, and attendance increasing, capacity, additions (water park, and big attractions they can advertise)

Personally, I'd prefer DC get removed for phase 3 of Potter. Use LC for the Wonka proposal Universal Creative made. Of course, I don't really want phase 3 at all... only so much left you can add.

And the entire resort is supposed to look completely different by the end of the decade according to the CEO of Comcast. Spirit posted it.

And not billions... Universal is a lot better at budgeting/managing costs than Disney. Essentially DM, TF clone, Springfield, Cabana Bay, CityWalk 2.0, Diagon, Kong, and the interactive museum would be $1 billion at Uni. KidZone replacement, I'd say $750 million-$1 billion over 10 years, from 2015 on, is reasonable. Universal wants to strike while the iron's hot.

I'd say, by 2017, they'll slow down considerably, but we'll still get something new every year.

 

[IAmFloridaBorn]

DC should be removed. Dueling Dragons as it was was the better coaster operation. I also think this would free up a ton of land. room for 3 new e tickets possibly.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

My money is phase 3 being The Ministry of Magic going where Fear Factor Live is. The Dumbledore vs Voldy battle could be epic. That courtroom in the basement, Deloris Umbridge's office, The Hall of Prophecies, Sirius Black's murder. There is tons of stuff they could cover.

 

[kap91]

Personally, I'd prefer DC get removed for phase 3 of Potter. Use LC for the Wonka proposal Universal Creative made. Of course, I don't really want phase 3 at all... only so much left you can add.

And the entire resort is supposed to look completely different by the end of the decade according to the CEO of Comcast. Spirit posted it.

And not billions... Universal is a lot better at budgeting/managing costs than Disney. Essentially DM, TF clone, Springfield, Cabana Bay, CityWalk 2.0, Diagon, Kong, and the interactive museum would be $1 billion at Uni. KidZone replacement, I'd say $750 million-$1 billion over 10 years, from 2015 on, is reasonable. Universal wants to strike while the iron's hot.

I'd say, by 2017, they'll slow down considerably, but we'll still get something new every year.

The day Universal yanks down an exposed steel coaster and replaces it with more potter-quality stuff is the day I am firmly convinced they've changed.

Yes they seem to get more for their dollar (though their business and corner-cutting tactics to achieve that can be debated) but I think you're low balling just a bit. Original Potter was $300+ million alone, there's no way potter 2 is cheaper or near the same the price, plus all the stuff you mentioned and on the schedule, plus a water park. Seems to me that's between potter 1 and the near future that's at least $2billion bordering on 3 and they're just starting to spend in LA and Japan too.

I can't keep up with all the threads on here. Good to hear that they're doing something about the way the resort looks as a whole and hopefully the flagship. Honestly like I said though, there's still so much cognitive dissonance from me hearing and seeing Universal do any of this that it's difficult for me to accept.

I definitely agree with your timeline for slowing down though. Except for the fact that I see that as the relative beginning of WDW starting to speed up (Avatar will be opening, Disney Springs will have just opened, all infrastructure projects complete, and I think it's safe to say that Star Wars and possibly the entire studios redo will be relatively soon thereafter). Part of me thinks that if that happens it might spark Universal to continue at their current pace. Definitely the most exciting time in Orlando I can ever remember. Heck, even IDrive is expanding faster than it's ever done before. Why did this all wait until after I moved away?

 

[nerdboyrockstar]

It's so weird for me seeing universal act like they have been because it's so different from how the universal I grew up with 10 minutes down the street acted. The one that literally did almost nothing my entire life. Figures I move away and they finally get some fire under their seat.

What time period is that? I honestly don't remember a long period where Universal did absolutely nothing.

 

[marni1971]

Mummy upgrade/refurb...YES!

Give it time

 

[IAmFloridaBorn]

My main thing with DC is that is wasn't re-themed and their track layout was built for the to duel which they wont ever do again. Remove it. dd some more inside family attractions to that already popular part of the park and you wont have any issues.

if I'm not mistaking DC had more of a wait time when it was Dueling Dragons. Seems as though Potter Fans aren't interested in two rough inverted coasters.

Oh And What is MOM? I know what it stands for but would that be a ride or show? E ticket type ride or...?

 

[kap91]

What time period is that? I honestly don't remember a long period where Universal did absolutely nothing.

Early 90's through 2000's. Yes I know they didn't completely stand still during that time period but aside from building IoA and later the Mummy it seemed mostly stagnant. IOA literally never received any additions. And more importantly it seemed once something was built that's the last it was ever touched. Very glad things are changing but hard to believe.

 

[Quinnmac000]

If they do get rid of the dueling dragons at least replace it with a super high speed high thrill ride. I get they are trying to make the parks more family oriented but they do need to keep their current fan base happy also which does consist of thrill seekers.

 

[marni1971]

Early 90's through 2000's. Yes I know they didn't completely stand still during that time period but aside from building IoA and later the Mummy it seemed mostly stagnant. IOA literally never received any additions. And more importantly it seemed once something was built that's the last it was ever touched. Very glad things are changing but hard to believe.

Studios was never stagnant.

Jimmy Neutron
Twister
Mummy
MIB
T2:3D
Shrek

IOA admittedly wasn't plussed aside from Storm Force and IIRC the Flyers. Some would say that was an indicator what a full park it was to begin with. Not personally saying either way.

If anything, prior management, the recession of late 90s and 9/11 plus a dire marketing campaign harmed the resort more. Two of those three are thankfully long gone. The third is out of their control.

 

[mahnamahna101]

If they do get rid of the dueling dragons at least replace it with a super high speed high thrill ride. I get they are trying to make the parks more family oriented but they do need to keep their current fan base happy also which does consist of thrill seekers.

An idea of what they could fit into the DC plot -
Everest-sized coaster themed to the TriWizard Tournament (46"), Ford Anglia family dark ride, Whomping Willow flat ride, Shrieking Shack or Azkaban show/walkthrough

 

[kap91]

Studios was never stagnant.

Jimmy Neutron
Twister
Mummy
MIB
T2:3D
Shrek

IOA admittedly wasn't plussed aside from Storm Force and IIRC the Flyers. Some would say that was an indicator what a full park it was to begin with. Not personally saying either way.

If anything, prior management, the recession of late 90s and 9/11 plus a dire marketing campaign harmed the resort more. Two of those three are thankfully long gone. The third is out of their control.

Was saying it felt like it was stagnant more than anything. The period I went most often saw only the addition of neutron, shrek, and mummy. Two of which were severely disappointed. Also mib hardly worked right in that period.

 

[mahnamahna101]

For the record, here's areas for potential expansion of the parks:

1. Dr. Doom's spot (a little land near it)... if they ever retheme MSHI (not likely, but hypothetically), they should remove Fearfall and build something akin to ToT in terms of theming
2. the whole Toon Lagoon front area - if Universal bulldozed it and started from scratch, you could probably fit a dark ride and a nice show
3. Dudley - the ride was never truly finished as far as theming goes (it was supposed to open summer 2000, but got fasttracked for the grand opening in May 1999)... if they retheme the island to Middle Earth, the Lonely Mountain or Mt. Doom could be an epic icon for that section of the park. But I'd be happy if they finished theming the ride as well.
4. The Trikes/Discovery Center area - the area where a JP expansion is most likely... a family coaster that flies over the lagoon briefly (with some rockwork, a waterfall, maybe a cave and some AAs), with a crazy idea being that Discovery Center and Burger Digs are repossessed for a Mr. DNA dark ride. New Discovery Center exhibits could be featured in the queue. Thunder Falls would then become the main restaurant for JP all year-round
5. Camp Jurassic - potentially an extension or flat ride could fit in here
6. Dragon Challenge area - I know it's a fun coaster and used to be world-class (back when the queue had skeletons and the ride still dueled)... but IOA is pretty land-locked. I also think LC wouldn't be enough for a Forbidden Forest expansion... plus you could fit 3 or 4 attractions into the DC area. Perfect for rounding out Potter.
7. Lost Continent - this is obviously a major place of expansion since it's not large enough to be a grand land, but it's a decent amount to build a mini-land or expand Seuss. I like the Wonka idea that Universal Creative proposed - and from the sounds of it, the area would be similar to an Epcot pavilion (all 3 attractions housed in one building)
8. Sneetch Beach - potentially a nice flat could fit here... although a lot of people like the idea of keeping it the way it is
9. the plot next to Cat AND some USF soundstages - now, my reasoning is that Grinch and Horton (better dark ride story than Lorax) would both make great attractions, and also that IOA could use another show. Plus, USF isn't really filming much of anything these days so all of those soundstages are unnecessary. The easy solution is to bulldoze a few of them for a nice-sized Seuss expansion. Horton dark ride, Grinch E-ticket, Seussical show, Lorax flat ride (maybe a balloon race themed to Truffula Trees?)
10. Shrek/Lucy - once the interactive museum opens, Lucy will be rendered redundant... and Shrek is obviously tired and itching for a replacement in the near future (it'll stay until the new family-friendly section opens in 2016). Using the method from Transformers, a two story family dark ride themed to the Monsters or maybe something similar to GMR could be a great people-eater.
11. the former KidZone area - would be a good section for a mini-land (80s movie land could be epic)
12. the huge mystery plot - could hold a DA and an attraction... very well could be where the new family-friendly area (KidZone replacement) could go
13. Fear Factor/MIB - either this area gets a sci-fi theme, or a retheme: can't see them staying unless there's some sort of cohesive theme
14. Disaster + Beetlejuice - if Beetlejuice was relocated to the Animal Actors stage, it would open the space necessary for a great Godzilla or Fast and Furious-themed E-ticket (all-ages like Disaster, though)

Not including Kong in this since obviously that plot is taken up already.