Universal Puts Disney's Reopening on Defensive

[MisterPenguin]

I’ve a hunch.

 

[DisneyJoe]

I just flashed back to my days working a MK and the Utilidors... How do you maintain distancing in such an enclosed space... and the change rooms... and where do CM's go for lunch, will the lunch room even work?

So many questions. All the managers have tiny tight offices. Scheduling.. Call centres... I just can't even picture it.

Call centers can be kept at home for the time being, as well as other services that have been successfully working well that way.

 

[MisterPenguin]

You don't understand everything the two week rule says. You don't need a declining case count. This is the rule...

Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period

OR

Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)

OK...

Between May 3 and 10, that number went up.

Florida went "full phase 1" on May 18.

 

[brianstl]

OK...

View attachment 473063

Between May 3 and 10, that number went up.

Florida went "full phase 1" on May 18.

The trajectory for the 14 day period went down..

 

[GoofGoof]

OK...

View attachment 473063

Between May 3 and 10, that number went up.

Florida went "full phase 1" on May 18.

Did they stop updating this tab? Last weekly info was for week ended 5/16. I thought maybe a delay due to holiday weekend but it’s still not updated. Maybe due to the changeover of staff.

 

[SoFloMagic]

Did they stop updating this tab? Last weekly info was for week ended 5/16. I thought maybe a delay due to holiday weekend but it’s still not updated. Maybe due to the changeover of staff.

Or maybe they don't want to publish it and are hoping nobody notices. Quite a few days above 1000 recently, so it wouldn't surprise me to see an increase on percentage too

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

View attachment 473058

Froderick. Lol

 

[Disney Analyst]

I’ve thought about that too. The locker area, the Character Zoo, the Mouseketeria entrance funnel, the main corridor under the castle... I can’t imagine how to do it. Then what about the above-ground break rooms and Cast bus systems?

When Disney’s old PR called its backstage Utilidor operations a “city,” they weren’t kidding. There’s a host of considerations completely separate from onstage guest areas.

I don’t envy the Disney execs responsible for the decisions, and I have a lot of sympathy for them.

Right? It’s a crazy world down there.

 

[GoofGoof]

Or maybe they don't want to publish it and are hoping nobody notices. Quite a few days above 1000 recently, so it wouldn't surprise me to see an increase on percentage too

I thought they were pretty good at updating it, but they did have some turnover so it’s possible they are just behind. Curious to see if total testing is up or flat vs the prior week. You need to know that to know how relevant increases in positive cases is.

 

[Herdman]

I think maybe it's a misconception that if people hear the MK is open that they will immediately flock there like a beach, for example, as we have seen. The beach is free in most instances. That's a little different than a family of 4 shelling out $500-600 bucks just on tickets for a one day experience that might be greatly diminshed. And that's just to get in.

There will be a lot of people watching this meeting online tomorrow for sure.

 

[SoFloMagic]

I thought they were pretty good at updating it, but they did have some turnover so it’s possible they are just behind. Curious to see if total testing is up or flat vs the prior week. You need to know that to know how relevant increases in positive cases is.

Oh they are very good at updating it for sure. I just worry about the turnover and motives. It may be nothing but it's not a good look.

Of course it could just be taking longer to compile with the holiday.

 

[DisneyCane]

I thought they were pretty good at updating it, but they did have some turnover so it’s possible they are just behind. Curious to see if total testing is up or flat vs the prior week. You need to know that to know how relevant increases in positive cases is.

If you download the detailed PDF report they show the number of tests, positives and percentages every day for the last 14 days. You can create the dashboard data point.

Did they stop updating this tab? Last weekly info was for week ended 5/16. I thought maybe a delay due to holiday weekend but it’s still not updated. Maybe due to the changeover of staff.

It often takes a few days for the new data point to show up.

Or maybe they don't want to publish it and are hoping nobody notices. Quite a few days above 1000 recently, so it wouldn't surprise me to see an increase on percentage too

You can look at the detailed PDF I referenced above. The data is already published. Whenever you see the "spike" days for new cases there is a huge increase in the tests reported on that day. The most recent one had around 40,000 tests which is basically double the average.

 

[Scrooged]

Did they stop updating this tab? Last weekly info was for week ended 5/16. I thought maybe a delay due to holiday weekend but it’s still not updated. Maybe due to the changeover of staff.

Wasn't there a shake up regarding one of the lead data scientists for the State of FLorida and these particular numbers, or am I not reading the thread correctly....?

 

[SoFloMagic]

Wasn't there a shake up regarding one of the lead data scientists for the State of FLorida and these particular numbers, or am I not reading the thread correctly....?

Yeah. Story on that

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242851256.html

 

[DisneyCane]

Did they stop updating this tab? Last weekly info was for week ended 5/16. I thought maybe a delay due to holiday weekend but it’s still not updated. Maybe due to the changeover of staff.

Or maybe they don't want to publish it and are hoping nobody notices. Quite a few days above 1000 recently, so it wouldn't surprise me to see an increase on percentage too

It takes a little math to figure it out from the detailed PDF report because I'm 99.9% sure the positive test number in the trend graph is for new cases. For new cases, the report shows the number each day and the positive percentage but they don't explicitly state the denominator. It isn't the total tests for the day because they remove people that have previously tested positive from the equation. For the trend, re-tests of people to see if they still have an active infection is not something you want in the data.

I did the math based on the report and when the data point is updated, I'd expect it to be 2%, which is slightly lower than the prior week (current latest data point).

 

[Seanual757]

We should have a betting pool and pick dates...June 23...can’t go wrong with lucky 23 for MJ!

6/6/2020

 

[Seanual757]

Sell your points to the NBA

I will sell all 3 of my resorts 900 points for a million

 

[Seanual757]

There‘s also a chance that if the date isn’t in June then they give a ballpark timeframe like mid-July or later in the summer. No guarantee they give an exact date. I know there’s a lot of back and forth about the governor or state wanting a specific opening date but what are the repercussions for Disney if they just don’t comply? You don’t approve their plan? They could just give a ballpark timeframe with a promise to update when it gets closer. Not saying that’s going to happen, but a presentation tomorrow doesn’t lock in a firm date.

Zero chance the mayor and or governor do NOT approve Disney’s plan. The Governor has already approved the plan even before Disney came up with a plan. The bottom line he wants the entire state open for business no questions asked. He has to make a certain person happy and stay on his good side so yea the plan will be approved w/in 24 hours of releasing it.

I am going with a 6/6 opening, recall workers on 6/1, training for 2 days with CM’s, testing with CM’s the following day, bring in APH’s to test on 6/5 with an opening on Saturday 6/6. This gives Disney 10 days to make it happen. Can it happen sure it can will it happen we will see what they say at 10am. I am shooting for 6/6 but the reality is I think a 7/1 opening is smarter and gives them more time to prepare I am just not sure they are going to wait and watch Universal be open for 3 weeks before they open the doors.

Why we need the money with zero coming in talk last night on the news is that the counties don't have the money to even open schools back up in the fall and they are trying to figure out how to open and pay the staff. We received a question air from both Orange county and Seminole County if they should open up in August or open up in January 2021.

 

[Seanual757]

I don’t think they are going to announce anything that will give them weeks worth’s of cancellations. They have purposely avoided that until this point and don’t see why they would decide to deviate from that course now.

By cancelling the 1st week of June already but not the second it gives them time to test a smaller group of guests my 6/7-13 reservation has NOT been cancelled yes it's still active. All speculation but will will know more in 3 hours.

 

[Seanual757]

For the first few weeks, months, and maybe up to a year, I don't see it.

The Disney we knew before this NO I do not see that returning for a good 12-24 months. What will it take to see this again first a vaccine, and second a total rebound of the economy.

We have 35+ million people out of work many businesses will not be coming back I think its going to take 3-4 years before the economy and unemployment returns to a some what normal level. I fear that it will take up to 10 years for pre-covid unemployment numbers to return. So a good chunk of families that would have been going to Disney for vacation will not be returning because of money, I have seen passholders say they will not return until No masks are needed so that will be 10-24 months or until the urges give in.