Universal Puts Disney's Reopening on Defensive

[brianstl]

One of the issues is that when I say something like "fireworks price and availability have gone in the wrong direction", people begin extrapolating that in weird ways. Never have I suggested Disney is suddenly out of stock or that that had ceased purchasing fireworks for some zany reason prior to the US shutdowns. It simply means that GOING FORWARD, Disney may have difficulty acquiring various custom shells and they will almost certainly cost more.

As of this morning, however, Disney has far... far more to worry about given China's encroachment on Hong Kong. "Owning" parks and more in a potential cold war opponent is something they have little plan for.

This is not just a problem for Disney. Many companies are in the same boat. This is what happens when dollar signs cloud your vision. It makes it harder to see that you are selling out to a communist dictatorship. Every company should have been planning for this eventual possibility the whole time they were doing business in China.

 

[easyrowrdw]

They can't stop taking reservations from a business and fiscal systems standpoint. I own a small business (healthcare) and have been deemed essential but mandated to only do emergency care during the pandemic. That means I had to cancel all elective and routine procedures. However, I didn't just cancel across the board, I proceeded on a week by week basis. I also didn't stop scheduling patients who wanted to make appointments for routine care, I just scheduled them much further out. The point being, from a business standpoint you have to keep the flow of revenue (in my case patients, in Disney's cases vacation clients) in place so when you are ready to finally open or resume business you have an adequate flow of people coming in to justify the resumption of your business. Basically, Disney needs to continue to accept reservations in order to meet minimum occupancy standards/criteria that are a necessary to open. Without a certain number of bookings, opening those resorts is not practicable. So they will continue to accept booking even if they don't plan to open until next year (which I don't think is the case).

I think there's a key difference in the situations. You intend to keep those appointments as long as the governmental restrictions allow. What's been "reported" here is that Disney doesn't intend to keep many of these reservations. I stand by my previous statement that this is fraudulent.

If Disney really does intend to remain closed until the end of August (World) and next year (Land), then I hope they get hit hard. It's shameful.

 

[disneymama10]

If it’s not feasible to wear masks outdoors in the summer heat then maybe the parks shouldn’t reopen until Fall.

Personally I think Disney is 100% in the right to be cautious and open later than everyone else. If they can take the $$$ loss there’s no reason to rush it (not that losing money is a reason TO rush it).

I think the major issue with most people speculating they are not working to reopen is that they haven't released a target date AND they are still cancelling reservations weekly. That is a lot to leave in limbo for families traveling out of state, asking off work (if still working), etc. A lot of families save for YEARS in order to afford a single trip (sometimes once in a lifetime type of trip) to Disney! Cancelling reservations weekly and continuing to take reservations without announcing if they will actually open is careless IMHO.

I feel like if Disney would just release a target date a lot of the argument that Disney isn't planning, etc. could be resolved. I know that is the frustrating part for me, the open-ended speculation of when will they open? We personally have had 2 trips cancelled during the closure. We were actually supposed to leave yesterday for a weeklong trip at AKL and we moved it to July 5th-11 at CSR only to decide to cancel it because my husband only has so much vacation time yearly and didn't want to use that week if it wasn't a sure thing.

 

[disneymama10]

I live in NYC and I see most people wearing masks when they are out. Most stores won't let you in without one.

That is definitely not the case for most stores in Georgia. In fact, only a small portion of people are choosing to wear masks.

 

[brianstl]

This is not just a problem for Disney. Many companies are in the same boat. This is what happens when dollar signs cloud your vision. It makes it harder to see that you are selling out to a communist dictatorship. Every company should have been planning for this eventual possibility the whole time they were doing business in China.

It is amazing to see China just destroy Iger’s whole China plan over the same weekend that they are supposed to be working to finalize a plan to open WDW in some way. The whole Disney Iger era is threatening to go down the toilet.

 

[stratman50th]

You may want to recheck those counts...as of today Polk Cty has 853 cases and 49 deaths.

Florida COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Florida COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

That's all of Polk County. Polk City still has less than 5. So I'd send you back to the dashboard.
Thanks....

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

fdoh.maps.arcgis.com

 

[jinx8402]

I think there's a key difference in the situations. You intend to keep those appointments as long as the governmental restrictions allow. What's been "reported" here is that Disney doesn't intend to keep many of these reservations. I stand by my previous statement that this is fraudulent.

If Disney really does intend to remain closed until the end of August (World) and next year (Land), then I hope they get hit hard. It's shameful.

But doesn't the current situation show why it was prudent to not outright cancel through August? Even if that is what they were projecting, they needed the flexibility to open earlier if necessary, and you can't do that if you already cancelled everyone outright. They have been cancelling a month out because from every thing we have been hearing is it would likely take 3-4 weeks to get things in order to reopen. They have been keeping options open, which any prudent business should be doing during this situation.

 

[DisneyCane]

There will obviously be those who disobey the rules and don’t wear masks and others who wear them but don’t do so properly. But there will be more people wearing them than there would be if they were not required. And that is why it’s not pointless. It doesn’t have to be all or nothing to be effective.

From what I have observed, when people wear masks voluntarily they tend to wear them properly. Based on being in stores like Walmart in places that don't require masks roughly the same percentage of people voluntarily wear them properly than I observed wearing them properly where it was mandatory.

For some people, making them mandatory will even lead to a rebellious attitude vs. if they were voluntary they might feel more socially accepted to participate in wearing them.

That's part of why I think that making them mandatory is pointless. I believe that if they were voluntary but encouraged you'd have a higher percentage of people wearing them properly. JMO.

It’s also a pipe dream to think there is going to be a successful vaccine in 6-8 months from now that can be distributed worldwide. That isn’t how vaccine’s work. Plus history shows that rushed vaccines can have bad results (see Merck’s HPV vaccine Gardisil).

The fastest successful vaccine brought to market was the one for Mumps, which took four years. People think that there will magically be some different result for COVID. History and science disagrees with this.

A vaccine for this virus shouldn't be compared to past unknown viruses. It is very similar to the original SARS virus where vaccine research was done 16 years ago but development stopped because it wasn't needed. Scientists have been studying SARS for a long time. Also, the family of human coronaviruses have been known and studied for a very long time as well.

It isn't a pipe dream if governments are willing to fund the production of hundreds of millions of doses before testing is complete. The wait to start production is a big part of Fauci's original 18 month time frame.

 

[jpeden]

From what I have observed, when people wear masks voluntarily they tend to wear them properly. Based on being in stores like Walmart in places that don't require masks roughly the same percentage of people voluntarily wear them properly than I observed wearing them properly where it was mandatory.

For some people, making them mandatory will even lead to a rebellious attitude vs. if they were voluntary they might feel more socially accepted to participate in wearing them.

That's part of why I think that making them mandatory is pointless. I believe that if they were voluntary but encouraged you'd have a higher percentage of people wearing them properly. JMO.



A vaccine for this virus shouldn't be compared to past unknown viruses. It is very similar to the original SARS virus where vaccine research was done 16 years ago but development stopped because it wasn't needed. Scientists have been studying SARS for a long time. Also, the family of human coronaviruses have been known and studied for a very long time as well.

It isn't a pipe dream if governments are willing to fund the production of hundreds of millions of doses before testing is complete. The wait to start production is a big part of Fauci's original 18 month time frame.

We have known the genetic sequencing of corona viruses for 30 years and have never made a successful vaccine. People keep ignoring that fact.

Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year

Considering the history and science behind making these drugs, “a year to 18 months would be absolutely unprecedented,” one expert warns.

www.google.com

 

[disneymama10]

The skyliner is an odd choice because it's an enclosed space with ventilation. So there is 0 chance you can wipe these down between guests or at any regular frequency, but since there is some ventilation you won't necessarily give the virus to the party they cram in with you.

I definitely would expect only one party per skyliner moving forward, personally. No insider knowledge at all, just an observation/guess.

 

[lazyboy97o]

We have known the genetic sequencing of corona viruses for 30 years and have never made a successful vaccine. People keep ignoring that fact.

Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year

Considering the history and science behind making these drugs, “a year to 18 months would be absolutely unprecedented,” one expert warns.

www.google.com

Yes, but there also wasn’t much demand for a human coronavirus vaccine before SARS. A vaccine for four out of hundreds of causes of the common cold is not really something in which people would be interested.

 

[GoofGoof]

But doesn't the current situation show why it was prudent to not outright cancel through August? Even if that is what they were projecting, they needed the flexibility to open earlier if necessary, and you can't do that if you already cancelled everyone outright. They have been cancelling a month out because from every thing we have been hearing is it would likely take 3-4 weeks to get things in order to reopen. They have been keeping options open, which any prudent business should be doing during this situation.

This ^^^

Why would Disney cancel reservations for months out now? Lets say they cancelled through August today then if the situation looks better a month from now and they want to push an opening up to Aug 1 or July 15. Now anyone who originally had a hotel reservation, ADRs, FP reservations booked between 7/15 and the end of August is furious. They have to rebook everything but maybe they don’t get the room they want or the ADRs or the FPs. Better to keep the reservations on the books and cancel when they are certain they won’t open.

I get that it’s frustrating being left in limbo (I have a trip in Aug and have no idea what’s going to happen). Disney has created a situation where you have to plan in advance with DVC As much as 11 months out, ADRs 6 months in advance, FP+ 60 days out. Because of all that they need to keep reservations open and roll it. I’d prefer to know what’s happening one way or the other but I also understand that it’s a logistical nightmare.

 

[sbunit]

I think there's a key difference in the situations. You intend to keep those appointments as long as the governmental restrictions allow. What's been "reported" here is that Disney doesn't intend to keep many of these reservations. I stand by my previous statement that this is fraudulent.

If Disney really does intend to remain closed until the end of August (World) and next year (Land), then I hope they get hit hard. It's shameful.

I understand your frustration. I have a trip booked for this coming December and it's going to be a nightmare to plan and figure out dining, shows and MVMCP etc. I'm strongly considering rescheduling the trip to spring of 2021 but even then who knows what's going to be available in terms of attractions and shows etc. I'd prefer to have the full experience with no limitations.

Regardless, I digress. Point being, if Disney just outright canceled everything into their INITIALLY planned august opening, they give themselves absolutely no flexibility to consider an earlier opening as is the case now. It is bad business strategy to corner yourself to just one option. that one option may initially seem smart but as other variables transpire over time, that option may need to be scratched and you may have to go in a different direction. Disney is playing too smart by keeping all doors open whether it be an earlier or later resumption of operations. You can't fault them and any wise business owner would do the same. But yes, communication could be better on their part.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes, but there also wasn’t much demand for a human coronavirus vaccine before SARS. A vaccine for four out of hundreds of causes of the common cold is not really something in which people would be interested.

Agreed. The Oxford team is actually using the basis for a MERS vaccine as the starting point for theIr Covid vaccine. They had a potential working vaccine but MERS was so limited in outbreaks they never had an opportunity to properly test it. Nobody has ever had more than an academic interest in a vaccine for the common cold.

I don‘t know whether we will get a vaccine that works or not. Nobody does. Saying it’s never been done before is no guarantee it can’t be done. This situation has never happened before. There’s no historical context.

 

[DisneyCane]

We have known the genetic sequencing of corona viruses for 30 years and have never made a successful vaccine. People keep ignoring that fact.

Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year

Considering the history and science behind making these drugs, “a year to 18 months would be absolutely unprecedented,” one expert warns.

www.google.com

It hasn't been made because they stopped development, not because it can't be done. It is extremely expensive to fully develop a vaccine and nobody is going to pay to do it if it isn't absolutely necessary. There would have been a SARS or MERS vaccine but both viruses were controlled with quarantines and died out on their own.

 

[easyrowrdw]

But doesn't the current situation show why it was prudent to not outright cancel through August? Even if that is what they were projecting, they needed the flexibility to open earlier if necessary, and you can't do that if you already cancelled everyone outright. They have been cancelling a month out because from every thing we have been hearing is it would likely take 3-4 weeks to get things in order to reopen. They have been keeping options open, which any prudent business should be doing during this situation.

I think it depends on what they plan to do. If they have no plans to open until August, but think July might be an option, then cancel through June. I certainly don't think they should be taking new reservations if they intend to be closed. I'm not convinced that is the case, though.

It seems more likely to me that what others have said is true - that they have varying targets depending upon the external circumstances (namely, the status of the virus). As such, varying goals have been reported by different people - I think even May by the OP. If that's the case, then communicating that they're closed indefinitely is appropriate, as that's true. It gives guests the option to cancel due to the uncertainty without deceiving them.

 

[Getachew]

I'm hearing Universal didn't surprise Disney at all with their June 5th reopening date. Both Disney and Universal were on the Governor's Reopening Committee, they both outlined their plans. Universal said June, Disney said end of August. Disney pushed really hard to have Universal blocked from opening in June, but the Governor and Orange Co. officials like the thought of that Summer tourist tax money, so Universal's plan got approved. Now Disney is back to the drawing board trying to figure out what they can can bring on line by mid-June with their now limited staffing resources.

This is not really a case of Disney being "caught flat-footed" as just the fact that the 2 resorts are in much different situations in regards to the ability to reopen.

Universal is still paying all of their full time employees. All they have to do is schedule them to work, train them on new policy procedures, and fling the doors open. It was in Universal's best interest to get the parks open ASAP and stop paying employees with no incoming revenue.

Disney, on the other hand, sent all their international and college program employees home and furloughed almost everyone else. Not to mention that they require 3 times the staff that Universal needs. It simply going to take longer to get the place ready for guests.

so now something open mid June? Anyone else can confirm?

 

[sbunit]

We have known the genetic sequencing of corona viruses for 30 years and have never made a successful vaccine. People keep ignoring that fact.

Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year

Considering the history and science behind making these drugs, “a year to 18 months would be absolutely unprecedented,” one expert warns.

www.google.com

What many people also don't realize, nor does the media report is the following fact...

There's a great book you can pick up from Amazon, Spillover: Animal infections and the next human Pandemic. It was published before Covid19 but it basically predicts this current Pandemic in general terms and makes sense out of everything going on now.

In one of the chapters the author briefly describes how viruses can be grouped as either DNA or RNA based on their genetic packaging that they transfer to hosts when infecting them. To keep things short and simple, DNA based viruses contain much more genetic info while RNA viruses have very small amounts of sequencing. As a result RNA viruses have a much higher infectivity rate and vastly higher mutation rates as compared to DNA viruses. RNA viruses typically want to infect quick and replicate as much as possible because due to their inherently high mutation rates they end up developing a lot of errors in their genetic sequencing later. As a result, RNA versus typically come in with a bang and eventually fizzle out and disappear later. Coronavirus is a RNA virus

In comparison, DNA viruses are much more stable due to their longer genetic sequencing. They mutate much less. Have a lesser infectivity rate BUT hang around much longer and because they hang around longer, usually have a higher mortality rate because the host slowly succumbs to them. HIV is a DNA virus. Yes HIV mutates but the mutations are more stable as compared to RNA viruses because DNA viruses like HIV contain more genetic coding that will result in less errors later.

Whats the point of all this? Irrespective of vaccines, it is very possible, and signs are pointing to this with the decline in rates, that this coronavirus will just eventually fizz out in time based on its inherent genetic instability like it's other RNA based cousins (see the first Sars virus outbreak).

 

[Duckberg]

1. Vaccine development for a mutating virus?
2. Herd immunity?
3. Living not just existing?

 

[GhostHost1000]

Ok cliff notes. What is happening with the Hong Kong Disney relationship?