Universal Epic Universe (South Expansion Complex) - Opens May 22 2025

[Andrew25]

Universal WANTS Epic to pull crowds away from Universal Studios. This will make it easier to take a number of attractions offline and build new ones while not massively inflating wait times on the existing attractions. As I’ve said before, there are major plans for an overhaul of things at the Studios park after Epic Universe opens.

Not really, Universal wants people to add Epic in order to sell more nights at the hotels. Replacing USF for Epic doesn't accomplish that.

BUT, that will probably happen as they've kind of left USF with dud after dud and no significant changes. The parade/nighttime show will be a short-term solution to keep USF afloat.

Y'all know that Uni will charge as much as WDW if they think they can get away with it, right?

Yes, Universal has "gotten away" with increasing pricing over the years because they've "justified" increased prices through expansions and changes to the resort.

It does bother me that Universal gets away with things like removing 3D from rides, reduced park hours when the Disney community will be up in flames.

We shall see what happens, but I wouldn't put it past Universal to pull another SWGE-Disneyland style stunt and restrict APs all summer long while pushing 1-day tickets only.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Exactly and this is the final nail in the coffin.

No more buy 2 - get 2 free. If Epic is successful enough, there may barely even be deals on the 4th day, let alone three.

Now, it’s totally worth more money, they built a whole new park after all. But the calculus that Universal is about to stop being a deal is not really being accounted for. If it’s the same price as Disney… do people actually pick it over Disney?

I say yes to Epic but TBD on the rest of the resort. I’ll do a dedicated trip next year for Uni and then maybe only tack on an Epic day moving forward until IOA/USF build a draw.

If they are too bullish on this, they’ll shoot themselves in the foot. Remember how over-confident Iger was over SWGE?

 

[Andrew25]

It is important that unrealistic expectations not be set. I think Epic will be HIGHLY successful.

I do not think it is possible for UOR to increase gate clicks by 50% year one. No other resort ever has and that includes not just crap second gates (Epcot, DisneySEA). It will take some time, the other parks will shed attendance to Epic more than length of stays and new guests will counter-balance.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but Epic will open with (arguably) the biggest marketing potential in any Disney/Universal park with a deadly Nintendo + Potter IP combo.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Not really, Universal wants people to add Epic in order to sell more nights at the hotels. Replacing USF for Epic doesn't accomplish that.

BUT, that will probably happen as they've kind of left USF with dud after dud and no significant changes. The parade/nighttime show will be a short-term solution to keep USF afloat.


Yes, Universal has "gotten away" with increasing pricing over the years because they've "justified" increased prices through expansions and changes to the resort.

It does bother me that Universal gets away with things like removing 3D from rides, reduced park hours when the Disney community will be up in flames.

We shall see what happens, but I wouldn't put it past Universal to pull another SWGE-Disneyland style stunt and restrict APs all summer long while pushing 1-day tickets only.

We see why they get away with it. Uni fans defend everything and put down any critiques while Disney fans lament the font choice on a banner. Universal used to be store brand Disney at store brand prices but if they want to charge Disney prices ($1000/night at a premier hotel in December…), they should be held to the same standard.

 

[Andrew25]

We see why they get away with it. Uni fans defend everything and put down any critiques while Disney fans lament the font choice on a banner. Universal used to be store brand Disney at store brand prices but if they want to charge Disney prices ($1000/night at a premier hotel in December…), they should be held to the same standard.

I agree with the fan part, but Universal's hotels certainly justify their pricing. Cabana Bay is a far bettering offering than some of Disney's moderates and it was priced below Disney's values. Nicer rooms, amenities, pools, etc.

But I do agree that some Universal fans are still "fazed" in the 2013-2017 construction boom era the resort was in when multiple great projects were in construction simultaneously. It's diminished, but every once in a while I have to correct someone when they mention that Universal's pricing is cheaper than WDW lol

My biggest gripe with Universal is that they have the potential to fix things relatively quickly... they just don't want to or are distracted by other projects (Frisco/HHN/etc.).

 

[BrianLo]

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but Epic will open with (arguably) the biggest marketing potential in any Disney/Universal park with a deadly Nintendo + Potter IP combo.

Totally. Epic will do great. It’s the entire resort though I’m referring to.

I’m just trying to get ahead of USF dropping off a cliff being an indictment. It’s really not, it’s a normal part of a new gate along with that specific gate exacerbated needing significant help.

Two measures of success - I think Epic will be the most popular gate in its first full year of operation, maybe second to IOA, but that’s ok. I also think UOR gaining 30% attendance resort-wide will also be an acceptable benchmark of success.

Something like Epic 10.5 million, IOA 9.5 million and USF 8.5 million is how I picture the first full year shaking out. Within 5-10 years they’ll all be back to around 11 million.

 

[Andrew25]

Totally. Epic will do great. It’s the entire resort though I’m referring to.

I’m just trying to get ahead of USF dropping off a cliff being an indictment. It’s really not, it’s a normal part of a new gate along with that specific gate exacerbated needing significant help.

Two measures of success - I think Epic will be the most popular gate in its first full year of operation, maybe second to IOA, but that’s ok. I also think UOR gaining 30% attendance resort-wide will also be an acceptable benchmark of success.

Something like Epic 10.5 million, IOA 9.5 million and USF 8.5 million is how I picture the first full year shaking out. Within 5-10 years they’ll all be back to around 11 million.

IOA was a 11.0M prior in 2022 according to TEA, can't imagine attendance has dropped far below, probably flat come next year.

USF was at 10.8M in 2022, no way attendance drops that dramatically over 2-3 years, especially with them increasing the number of special events that "artificially" inflate the park's popularity.

 

[BrianLo]

IOA was a 11.0M prior in 2022 according to TEA, can't imagine attendance has dropped far below, probably flat come next year.

USF was at 10.8M in 2022, no way attendance drops that dramatically over 2-3 years, especially with them increasing the number of special events that "artificially" inflate the park's popularity.

Again, this flies wildly counter to how every single other new gate launch has ever driven attendance…. Ever. Across all operators including USO.

Attendance must drop at other gates. Or this is the exception to the rule in an unprecedented way.

My numbers add up to a resort wide attendance bump of approximately 135% for a reason

 

[UNCgolf]

Again, this flies wildly counter to how every single other new gate launch has ever driven attendance…. Ever. Across all operators including USO.

Attendance must drop at other gates. Or this is the exception to the rule in an unprecedented way.

My numbers add up to a resort wide attendance bump of approximately 135% for a reason

Yeah, EPCOT and Disney-MGM both saw a roughly 10% attendance decrease in 1998 when Animal Kingdom opened. Even Magic Kingdom saw a decent drop.

That drop continued into 1999 with Animal Kingdom's first full year of operation; EPCOT declined about 5% more and Disney-MGM around 8%.

 

[Andrew25]

Again, this flies wildly counter to how every single other new gate launch has ever driven attendance…. Ever. Across all operators including USO.

Attendance must drop at other gates. Or this is the exception to the rule in an unprecedented way.

My numbers add up to a resort wide attendance bump of approximately 135% for a reason

Think you can expand on your numbers a bit? (Love this conversation, just trying to understand your logic a bit more.)

You're suggesting in 2026 (first full year of Epic), USF will see a 21% drop in attendance, IOA will see a 14% decrease, and UOR overall will experience a 31% attendance increase due to Epic compared to 2022? *Used 2022 as that is the last TEA data, and is closely aligned to what the resort was experiencing pre-Covid.

Not saying your wrong to suggest a decline in attendance, but 21% decrease in attendance at a single park is pretty wild, something Comcast would not take likely.

Don't get me wrong, I find USF undesirable at times... but it's got special events and Diagon Alley to support it. Just can't wrap my head around such a significant drop.

 

[ThemeParkTraveller]

Think you can expand on your numbers a bit? (Love this conversation, just trying to understand your logic a bit more.)

You're suggesting in 2026 (first full year of Epic), USF will see a 21% drop in attendance, IOA will see a 14% decrease, and UOR overall will experience a 31% attendance increase due to Epic compared to 2022? *Used 2022 as that is the last TEA data, and is closely aligned to what the resort was experiencing pre-Covid.

Not saying your wrong to suggest a decline in attendance, but 21% decrease in attendance at a single park is pretty wild, something Comcast would not take likely.

Don't get me wrong, I find USF undesirable at times... but it's got special events and Diagon Alley to support it. Just can't wrap my head around such a significant drop.

It seems extreme, but it wouldn't be unprecedented. TDL dropped 27% in attendance the year after TDS opened, and it was the most popular theme park in the world at the time.

 

[Andrew25]

It seems extreme, but it wouldn't be unprecedented. TDL dropped 27% in attendance the year after TDS opened, and it was the most popular theme park in the world at the time.
View attachment 783586

Thanks for that - do you mind sharing where you got this data from?

Also, 2001/02 tourism was reeling from terrorism... so numbers might have played a factor a bit.

 

[ThemeParkTraveller]

Thanks for that - do you mind sharing where you got this data from?

Also, 2001/02 tourism was reeling from terrorism... so numbers might have played a factor a bit.

Numbers were sourced from Amusement Business Magazine.

Top Parks 2002!

www.csus.edu

I agree about the post-9/11 impact for the other parks, but it likely had a very negligible effect on TDR when international visitors were still under 5% of total attendance in those years.

 

[UNCgolf]

Think you can expand on your numbers a bit? (Love this conversation, just trying to understand your logic a bit more.)

You're suggesting in 2026 (first full year of Epic), USF will see a 21% drop in attendance, IOA will see a 14% decrease, and UOR overall will experience a 31% attendance increase due to Epic compared to 2022? *Used 2022 as that is the last TEA data, and is closely aligned to what the resort was experiencing pre-Covid.

Not saying your wrong to suggest a decline in attendance, but 21% decrease in attendance at a single park is pretty wild, something Comcast would not take likely.

Don't get me wrong, I find USF undesirable at times... but it's got special events and Diagon Alley to support it. Just can't wrap my head around such a significant drop.

21% might be a little high, but as I said above, EPCOT and Disney-MGM both experienced 15% or so drops (MGM a bit more than EPCOT) from their pre-Animal Kingdom attendance to Animal Kingdom's first full year of operation.

 

[rd805]

I think social media being what it is these days, and the ease of high quality promo videos on Instagram, Tiktok, etc -- EU will hit the ground running. It's up to Universal to keep the other 2 parks going, and I'm anxiously awaiting the next phases to their vacant spaces.

I think they did a great job with the IP infused new Dreamworks zone. It's not for "me" (a 34 year old male without young children)- but it's going to be popular for a lot of families. I will still love to explore and will definitely do meet and greets (at least the first time), because Universal always has shorter lines for those characters lol.

 

[BrianLo]

Think you can expand on your numbers a bit? (Love this conversation, just trying to understand your logic a bit more.)

You're suggesting in 2026 (first full year of Epic), USF will see a 21% drop in attendance, IOA will see a 14% decrease, and UOR overall will experience a 31% attendance increase due to Epic compared to 2022? *Used 2022 as that is the last TEA data, and is closely aligned to what the resort was experiencing pre-Covid.

Not saying your wrong to suggest a decline in attendance, but 21% decrease in attendance at a single park is pretty wild, something Comcast would not take likely.

Don't get me wrong, I find USF undesirable at times... but it's got special events and Diagon Alley to support it. Just can't wrap my head around such a significant drop.

Disney Parks Annual Attendance History

I've been accumulating attendance data on the Disney Parks and many others for a long time now and over the last few days, I finally closed a couple of data gaps on a few parks back into the 70's and 60's. Now that I was able to fill in those data gaps I thought I would share for those...

forums.wdwmagic.com

This actually is a nicely combed thread of data. You can visually see how the parks function.

I hope I’m wrong (I won’t be completely wrong), but this is the nature of capital expenditures. One does not realize the full outlay in year one, it takes time to pay off. If it does we’re going to see a golden age of theme park investing. Comcast will basically rush a fourth gate. Why wouldn’t they when they could reach their attendance demands and profitability day zero of an investment?

Tokyo Disneyland essentially never fully recovered its attendance. Though in terms of good enough, that occurred in 2013.

For the record I’m saying a 20% drop (or whatever) at USF would actually be a ‘success’. I’m actually trying to get ahead of this one when the attendance has a normal adjustment and the Disney loyalists crow about what a mistake it was.

 

[BrianLo]

21% might be a little high, but as I said above, EPCOT and Disney-MGM both experienced 15% or so drops (MGM a bit more than EPCOT) from their pre-Animal Kingdom attendance to Animal Kingdom's first full year of operation.

You are right. I might be a bit bold there. Epic may not hit those heights and USF/IOA might drop more slightly.

I think what’s unprecedented potentially in this equation is that the newest park actually seems dramatically better than another. TDS and Epcot stand out as fantastic parks (maybe even better than Epic in some ways), but their castle equivalents were on a much more solid foundation that USF. So I’m sort of adjusting for Epic over-indexing.

But in reality they all may be somewhere in the 9+ million range.

I’m also somewhat adjusting to the expectation that 2023 numbers are not as strong.

 

[Andrew25]

Disney Parks Annual Attendance History

I've been accumulating attendance data on the Disney Parks and many others for a long time now and over the last few days, I finally closed a couple of data gaps on a few parks back into the 70's and 60's. Now that I was able to fill in those data gaps I thought I would share for those...

forums.wdwmagic.com

This actually is a nicely combed thread of data. You can visually see how the parks function.

I hope I’m wrong (I won’t be completely wrong), but this is the nature of capital expenditures. One does not realize the full outlay in year one, it takes time to pay off. If it does we’re going to see a golden age of theme park investing. Comcast will basically rush a fourth gate. Why wouldn’t they when they could reach their attendance demands and profitability day zero of an investment?

Tokyo Disneyland essentially never fully recovered its attendance. Though in terms of good enough, that occurred in 2013.

For the record I’m saying a 20% drop (or whatever) at USF would actually be a ‘success’. I’m actually trying to get ahead of this one when the attendance has a normal adjustment and the Disney loyalists crow about what a mistake it was.

2023 is certainly a down year, but I also believe that Diagon/Hogwarts Express is a massive ticket seller that would at least convince folks to include USF as part of their visit with how easy it is to add to your trip.

I know us fans like to complain about USF, but it has a lot going for it, especially in the next year:

• Parade
• Nighttime Show
• DreamWorks (minor addition, but should convince families to visit more often instead of outright ignoring)
• Special Events (Mardi Gras, Holidays, HHN)

IOA/USF saw a downturn of 12% going into 2010 with Hogsmeade addition.

• 2023 - placed DAK/EP/MK numbers closer to their early 2010s attendance, excluding DHS thanks to park changes. UOR attendance has skyrocketed thanks to onsite resorts, so placed it closer to their 2017/2018 numbers.
• 2024 - assumed MK flat due to Tiana, assumed 8% decline at all the other parks. UOR sees biggest decline at 12%.*
• 2025 - assumed WDW to benefit a bit, but not too much with no major additions known. UOR sees 7% increase overall pending ticketing structure behind Epic.
• 2026 (ignore) - placed USF/IOA closer to their 2018 numbers, while putting WDW at their 2019 number just to see what they need to do to make up over the next 2-3 years.

*UOR has been nonstop busy since the start of the year, so I'm skeptical of a 12% decline in 2024, especially with this summer's additions.

SeaWorld has been in a decline, and I'd imagine Epic will do more damage. Only way I see SWO getting out of their funk is if that onsite hotel gets expedited soon.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Epic's success won't be judged by Universal in dry attendance numbers alone, but mostly if it extends the length of on property stays.

 

[Andrew25]

Epic's success won't be judged by Universal in dry attendance numbers alone, but mostly if it extends the length of on property stays.

Yes, which is why I believe USF/IOA will benefit from Epic and not see a dramatic attendance decline. Universal cares more about occupancy rates than in-park attendance at this point. They'll do whatever it takes to convince folks to visit longer/more of their parks with discounts/packages.