Understanding Why Disney's Magical Express Is Ending

kpilcher

Well-Known Member
Today is a different market.

The stock market is at record levels. Housing remains strong. DVC resale prices are at record levels. The demand is there.

Despite what you might read, the unemployment rate is at a somewhat normal level at the moment; not near historic highs or lows. Still, several industries are experiencing high rates of unemployment, greatly impacting the real rate of unemployment, so the distribution of those unemployed is not even.

IMO, the rate of vaccination is Disney's biggest hurdle to WDW returning to normal. (This assumes vaccines remains effective against future variations.)
I always love your perspective, so not trying to quibble, but don't you think the unemployment rate is skewed by discouraged workers right now? The % may not be anywhere near a record high but our local food pantries in Central Florida are still struggling to meet unprecedented demand. They are working to increase capacity to meet that sadly needed demand. My middle of the middle class neighborhood sees lines of cars miles long when food distribution events happen. As much as I adore data, the numbers aren’t quite reflecting reality.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I always love your perspective, so not trying to quibble, but don't you think the unemployment rate is skewed by discouraged workers right now? The % may not be anywhere near a record high but our local food pantries in Central Florida are still struggling to meet unprecedented demand. They are working to increase capacity to meet that sadly needed demand. My middle of the middle class neighborhood sees lines of cars miles long when food distribution events happen. As much as I adore data, the numbers aren’t quite reflecting reality.
Right. If you go back and read my post more closely, you’ll see that I mentioned the “real rate of unemployment” and that “several industries are experiencing high rates of unemployment.”

Currently, many tourist based economies (such as central Florida or Hawaii) are experiencing high unemployment. However, this is localized.

Conversely, other regions and industries are struggling to find qualified people to hire at the moment.

Millions are ready to vacation in central Florida once things return to normal. Money is not what is stopping them. It’s the rules and restrictions resulting from COVID. People don’t want to wear masks. People do want to see nighttime fireworks.

As I previously wrote, the rate of vaccination is probably the single most important factor to WDW (and central Florida) returning to normal.

Repeating what I wrote, today is a different market. The stock market is at record highs. The housing market is strong. The federal government is pumping trillions into the economy.

We just need everyone to be vaccinated to return to normal. (Well, at least until the next national crisis happens...)
 

ohioguy

Well-Known Member
I think it boils down to Disney having to make a decision: renew the contract with MEARS or not. MEARS may have been asking for too much money, or other terms, that Disney simply couldn't accommodate. Since the contract was for multiple years, maybe even a decade, Disney had to think long-term about its needs. Given the high speed rail that's coming, and guests increasingly renting vehicles regardless, the DME became an extraneous expense that was seen as negligible to the WDW operation.
 

The Colonel

Well-Known Member
You seriously think that Disney does that because they are basically saints. You may not know where the payoff comes from but you can sleep well at night knowing that they get a whole lot of cash from that situation or they wouldn't have done it.
I don’t really know what you are talking about. I don’t think they are saints about anything. It’s a contractual obligation. DVC would not make money charging DVC members for parking.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Disney is counting on strong to historic demand after the next couple of years. People want to travel - went to the beach for Spring Break and it was quite crowded. If anything, Disney has a supply problem coming up
First Disney needs to address staffing issues. A few members recently traveled to WDW and their hotel rooms at CBR were not ready until 7pm with check in time being at 3pm.
 

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
That’s not what he said. The DVC members have already paid for parking. Therefore, it cannot be surcharged.
Right, and I say that people that rent a room in a Disney resort have already paid for the parking as well. But that didn't stop them from charging it again. No matter what "method" they use they are still being charged for parking.
 

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
I don’t really know what you are talking about. I don’t think they are saints about anything. It’s a contractual obligation. DVC would not make money charging DVC members for parking.
My point was that they have charged for parking whether it be as a separate line item of part or "a contractual obligation". It is in there and always has been.
 
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The Colonel

Well-Known Member
My point was that they have charged for parking whether it be as a separate line item of part of "a contractual obligation". It is in there and always has been.
Not to belabor this, but DVC members staying on points do not pay for parking. If they were to be charged for parking, the revenue would offset their dues. Disney does not stand to make money by charging DVC members for parking. The cost of the parking lot and related maintenance is built into the dues. If that is what you mean by DVC members are charged for parking, then yes of course they are.
 

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
Not to belabor this, but DVC members staying on points do not pay for parking. If they were to be charged for parking, the revenue would offset their dues. Disney does not stand to make money by charging DVC members for parking. The cost of the parking lot and related maintenance is built into the dues. If that is what you mean by DVC members are charged for parking, then yes of course they are.
I understand that, but the point is that in my opinion they have been paying that fee it was just never spelled out as a line item. They haven't charged it again because, I assume by what you are saying that they have it specifically listed in the contract terms and agreements. And I agree lets not belabor this any further.
 

plawren2

Active Member
Right. If you go back and read my post more closely, you’ll see that I mentioned the “real rate of unemployment” and that “several industries are experiencing high rates of unemployment.”

Currently, many tourist based economies (such as central Florida or Hawaii) are experiencing high unemployment. However, this is localized.

Conversely, other regions and industries are struggling to find qualified people to hire at the moment.

Millions are ready to vacation in central Florida once things return to normal. Money is not what is stopping them. It’s the rules and restrictions resulting from COVID. People don’t want to wear masks. People do want to see nighttime fireworks.

As I previously wrote, the rate of vaccination is probably the single most important factor to WDW (and central Florida) returning to normal.

Repeating what I wrote, today is a different market. The stock market is at record highs. The housing market is strong. The federal government is pumping trillions into the economy.

We just need everyone to be vaccinated to return to normal. (Well, at least until the next national crisis happens...)
from 2000 we have had (by my determination alone) 3 major national crisis-that disrupted the economy in some significant shape or form
- 9/11
-Housing Bubble burst/Great Recession 2007-2009
-COVID 2020-2021
I have not really considered the previous three decades of my life, but 3 such events in last 20 years does seem a large number.
Could make it likely we will experience another in next 7+ years, anyone's guess what they would be as none of these 3 were really predictable. but there are several contenders......... So enjoy 2022-2029 I suppose......
 

HarperRose

Well-Known Member
When I used to post regularly on wdwmagic.com, I liked to believe I gained a bit of a reputation for producing charts. :)

It's been about 4 years since my last chart, so it's time for another.

Let's have a look at Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS), which Disney reports every fiscal quarter (i.e. 4 times each year) in its SEC filings.

Disney defines PRGS as follows:

Per room guest spending is used to analyze guest spending at our hotels and is defined as total revenue from room rentals and sales of food, beverage and merchandise at our hotels, divided by total occupied hotel room nights.​

Disney uses PRGS to track how much you spend at the hotel. Most of this is the cost of the room itself, followed by food. Did you stop by the food court before or after your theme park visit? This is tracked in PRGC. Did you buy some souvenirs at the hotel store? This is tracked in PRGC.

Here's PRGS (per quarter) for the 10 years prior to 2020. (I decided not to include 2020. A disproportionate number of Value and Moderate Resort rooms were closed, skewing the numbers. This makes 2020 extremely difficult to compare to previous years using publicly available data.)

View attachment 548414
All that proves is Disney has exponentially increased prices.
 

homerdance

Well-Known Member
We flew in this weekend for what we thought would be our last visit using the DME. We had to get our bags for the first time which was mildly disorienting bc we didn’t know how to get back to DME after grabbing our bags, no biggie.

When we found it we were shocked by the line. It ran down past the rental car counters and was easily an hour wait just to get to the point where you scan your magic band to get segmented into smaller lines. We cut our loses, ordered an Uber for $45 and had a great experience. Never got to the park faster. It’s definitely how we’ll do it in the future no matter what Mears offers.

The biggest part we missed was the service of getting your luggage directly to your room. With that gone all that was left was an extra line and frustration outside of the bubble. Obviously the time of year and even time of the week could change that long line but in the future I’ll just enjoy the quick stress free service a ride share provides for a nominal fee.
Has anyone tried the stand alone service offered by bagsinc? we are looking at it, was hoping to find some reviews because that is honestly the biggest bonus to use DME.
I understand that, but the point is that in my opinion they have been paying that fee it was just never spelled out as a line item. They haven't charged it again because, I assume by what you are saying that they have it specifically listed in the contract terms and agreements. And I agree lets not belabor this any further.
The parking fees paid by non-DVC members or by breakage rooms are listed as a line item credit on the DVC statements.
 

kpilcher

Well-Known Member
Right. If you go back and read my post more closely, you’ll see that I mentioned the “real rate of unemployment” and that “several industries are experiencing high rates of unemployment.”

Currently, many tourist based economies (such as central Florida or Hawaii) are experiencing high unemployment. However, this is localized.

Conversely, other regions and industries are struggling to find qualified people to hire at the moment.

Millions are ready to vacation in central Florida once things return to normal. Money is not what is stopping them. It’s the rules and restrictions resulting from COVID. People don’t want to wear masks. People do want to see nighttime fireworks.

As I previously wrote, the rate of vaccination is probably the single most important factor to WDW (and central Florida) returning to normal.

Repeating what I wrote, today is a different market. The stock market is at record highs. The housing market is strong. The federal government is pumping trillions into the economy.

We just need everyone to be vaccinated to return to normal. (Well, at least until the next national crisis happens...)
Thanks for clarifying. I must have misinterpreted how you were using the phrase “real unemployment.” There are a whole heap of a lot of people here who hope you’re correct about demand.

I fully agree with the need for mass vaccinations to really boost travel.

For several reasons, there are large groups who are reluctant or determined not to get a shot. Some are already reacting negatively to Pfizer’s CEO saying annual vaccines are likely needed.

Now that I’ve had my second dose I feel more willing to go places I haven’t in more than a year now. Universal and SeaWorld, for example. I’m still leery of cruises, and that’s a shame because I love cruising.

I‘m not sure what kind of industries you’re seeing that are struggling to find help in Georgia, but on the Volusia County coast a growing number of bars, restaurants and hotels are offering incentives like signing bonuses.

Getting back to DME and its replacements, it is going to be extremely interesting to see how Mears changes its game plan in the medium to long term to compete for both customers and workers against Brightline, Uber, Lyft, Sunrail, and whatever else comes along. Mears grew out of a traditional taxi business. That model is already crimped by ride share.

It will also be interesting to see what Universal/I-Drive and the Convention Center provide as incentive for some kind of mass transit link with the airport and/or Disney. Brightline has more than a billion reasons to not build their way.
 

kpilcher

Well-Known Member
from 2000 we have had (by my determination alone) 3 major national crisis-that disrupted the economy in some significant shape or form
- 9/11
-Housing Bubble burst/Great Recession 2007-2009
-COVID 2020-2021
I have not really considered the previous three decades of my life, but 3 such events in last 20 years does seem a large number.
Could make it likely we will experience another in next 7+ years, anyone's guess what they would be as none of these 3 were really predictable. but there are several contenders......... So enjoy 2022-2029 I suppose......
I can’t speak for Parents, but I think we all must get used to the possibility / likelihood of a growing number of unexpected major disruptions. Climate likely plays a factor, but so does the income disparity gap, not to mention the polarization of our political parties. I also still fervently believe we can bounce back. Look at close events 100 years ago: World War 1, 1918 Pandemic, Great Depression and WWII all fell in about a 30-year span and that’s glossing over a lot.
 

whiterhino42

Active Member
I don't see why people renting a car wouldn't still use Disney internal transportation to get around the resort. The buses are far more convenient than driving yourself to one of the parks and getting in all the traffic plus having to pay the parking fees.

I have a car when I'm at Disney (because I drive there from Atlanta) and hardly ever use it -- mainly just to go to other resorts for occasional meals. Although I now have to pay the exorbitant resort parking costs (as @Sirwalterraleigh mentioned above with regards to the Boardwalk, when I was at POR last January the lot outside our building was never more than about 5% full), driving to the parks every day would double that expense.
You don't pay the parking fees if you are a resort guest at the parks. Driving your own car is MUCH faster.
 

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