TWDC reports third-quarter profits

[DocMcHulk]

From what I have been seeing on the TA end, many of my clients are simply taking a day out of their 5-7 day Disney trips to hit IOA. They are still staying at WDW, on the DDP, etc. I think the people making the most money from WWoHP are Mears and the rental car companies. :lol:

I know in my personal situation, my wife and I are going to Disney in May of next year (staying off property). We've never been to IOA, but will be going because my wife is a huge Harry Potter fan. We wont be taking a day away from Disney, we are going on a day we probably wouldnt have gone to a park anyways.

 

[DisneyJoe]

Disney's attendance is still ahead. However, even with a slowdown at IoA, which doesn't seem likely, attendance could at least match that of AK and DHS.

The numbers reported from Universal were a combined increase in attendance for BOTH parks, not just one - so shouldn't you add the numbers for AK+DHS to make a fair comparison?

 

[captainkidd]

Same here - or they are doing a cheap hotel stay before or after WDW just to do IOA. Most take a break in the middle of their WDW stay, not wanting to change resorts - and getting the advantage of DME at both ends of their stay.

This is what we used to do. Not anymore. Not that it has anything to do with Harry Potter. I just find Universal more relaxing. Universal Express, the great service at the resorts, not having to make dining reservations months in advance.

I think what we're going to see is day guests visiting Universal see how much there is to do, how lovely an area it is, and how easy it is to get around and numbers are going to start to shift. The very first time I stayed at Universal about 4 years ago, I wondered why it hadn't already began to happen.

 

[captainkidd]

The numbers reported from Universal were a combined increase in attendance for BOTH parks, not just one - so shouldn't you add the numbers for AK+DHS to make a fair comparison?

Of those 3.6 million, let's say an estimated 2 million visited IoA. Multiply that number by 4. And again, that's during a less crowded time of the year. The 8-9 million being drawn at both AK and DHS are for the entire year.

In other words, an accurate guess of people visiting IoA is in the 8 million per year range.

 

[Kamikaze]

No problem.

Disney's attendance is still ahead. However, even with a slowdown at IoA, which doesn't seem likely, attendance could at least match that of AK and DHS. If that happens, this board may self-destruct.:lol:

In all seriousness, it's a very good possibility, and if it happens, Disney better throw away the "competition is good" excuse and think of some other reason they didn't pursue Harry Potter.

It doesn't need to 'slow down'. As Potterland was open 4th Q last year, the jump won't be anywhere near what it was this time around. Meaning the gain vs DAK and DHS won't be near as large. You're comparing YoY numbers.

 

[captainkidd]

It doesn't need to 'slow down'. As Potterland was open 4th Q last year, the jump won't be anywhere near what it was this time around. Meaning the gain vs DAK and DHS won't be near as large. You're comparing YoY numbers.

We'll have to wait to see what 2011's attendance is. I'm just taking a guess based on the 2nd quarter numbers from the year.

 

[devoy1701]

We'll have to wait to see what 2011's attendance is. I'm just taking a guess based on the 2nd quarter numbers from the year.

Interesting that DIS was downgraded today by analysts, despite beating estimates by $.06/share. They say DIS has no short-term potential outside of the ESPN brand.

Anyway. Stock was down today anyway because of the emotion running amock on Wall Street so I picked some more up anyway...almost $9.00 below the new target price.

 

[Magenta Panther]

If Lee says it's so, it's so.

But I still say that selling the parks would be a major PR disaster. The anger and dismay from Disney fans, AND the general public, would be massive. Iger would become the most hated Disney CEO in history. I really don't think I'm overreacting here. The realities of the situation and the reasons for such a sale don't matter. Selling the parks would seem like such a callous, money-grubbing move that it would tarnish the Disney image forever.

I hope to God it never happens.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Universal's attendance is much lower, so it's a lot easier to show a much more significant gain.

If Disney would've built the exact same attraction, and gotten the same increase in actual visitors, their percentage increase wouldn't have been even remotely as large as Universal's.

Not as low as you might think. In fact, attendance at IOA could potentially pass attendance at both Animal Kingdom and DHS next year. As of right now, they're right on their tails.

I'm not a Potter fan, but the numbers don't lie.

Here are the 2010 attendance #s for the 4 parks in question:
Hollywood Studios 9,603,000
Animal Kingdom 9,686,000
Universal Studios 5,925,000
Islands of Adventure 5,949,000


A 41% increase is nothing to sneeze at, especially considering that Universal didn't spend all that much (relatively speaking) on The Wizarding World.

After the release of these #s, Disney's stock price took a pretty significant hit - it sounds like investors aren't buying this positive outlook at all.

 

[Kamikaze]

After the release of these #s, Disney's stock price took a pretty significant hit - it sounds like investors aren't buying this positive outlook at all.

You can't judge any stock price right now. Everything is going down except for tech, basically.

 

[TP2000]

If DLR posted record 3rd quarter attendance and there was only a 1 percent gain then that means WDW attendance was way down.

Yup. There's really no other way to slice that pie.

If Disneyland Resort's two parks are showing strong attendance gains and just posted a "record 3rd quarter" for attendance, then the WDW Resort's four parks must either be stagnant or declining in comparison to last year's attendance.

Here's Bob Iger's exact words from his quarterly earning's statement yesterday, to put it in context.

Disney California Adventure's World of Color and The Little Mermaid ~ Ariel's Undersea Adventure, the first two attractions to open as part of the California Adventure redesign, have enjoyed tremendous success, helping to fuel record third quarter attendance at the Disneyland Resort. -Bog Iger

 

[Kamikaze]

Yup. There's really no other way to slice that pie.

If Disneyland Resort's two parks are showing strong attendance gains and just posted a "record 3rd quarter" for attendance, then the WDW Resort's four parks must either be stagnant or declining in comparison to last year's attendance.

Here's Bob Iger's exact words from his quarterly earning's statement yesterday, to put it in context.

Unless the 'record' was by 2%.

 

[PirateFrank]

From what I have been seeing on the TA end, many of my clients are simply taking a day out of their 5-7 day Disney trips to hit IOA. They are still staying at WDW, on the DDP, etc. I think the people making the most money from WWoHP are Mears and the rental car companies. :lol:

That is exactly what we are doing on our 9 day October trip....were skipping AK this trip, were renting a car, and going to IOA for the day...but were still eating breakfast and dinner in wdw.....

 

[Kamikaze]

That is exactly what we are doing on our 9 day October trip....were skipping AK this trip, were renting a car, and going to IOA for the day...but were still eating breakfast and dinner in wdw.....

Question - how are you spending the 8 other days that you can't get to AK?

 

[majortom1981]

hmm

It seems like disney is trying to play hide the wdw figures game by lumping it in with Disneyland.

Anybody have the figures for just wdw alone?

 

[Kamikaze]

It seems like disney is trying to play hide the wdw figures game by lumping it in with Disneyland.

Anybody have the figures for just wdw alone?

Can't have figures they don't release. And thats exactly why they bundle them together.

 

[McClane713]

Agreed, it would also be interesting to see how many Universal guests skipped Disney all together. I would be willing to bet not that many did.

Count two guests from my household. Just came into an unexpected bonus from work that helped make a quick trip to Florida a reality. Haven't seen WWOHP yet, so that's one day. For our 2nd day just decided today we're just going to Universal or HHN, or maybe even just a 2nd day at IOA. We decided that we wanted to just focus on Universal this trip. And after our last trip to Disney my wife isn't exactly in a hurry to go back. Almost had her talked into the MNSSHP, but not available in the little time we'll be there.

 

[devoy1701]

After the release of these #s, Disney's stock price took a pretty significant hit - it sounds like investors aren't buying this positive outlook at all.

You can't judge any stock price right now. Everything is going down except for tech, basically.

Agreed with Kamikaze.

One thing I've noticed is that many stocks have an initial downtick after positive results and earnings statements. Why this is, I have no idea, but its a reaction you can almost bet on as I've noticed it often.

In addition, as I mentioned in my comment above, investors don't see a positive outlook in Disney in the short term...besides ESPN they don't see any potential opportunities since the economy is heading for the gutter again and most of Disney's business is contingent on how much disposable income people have.

The stock is definitely undervalued right now though...which is why I picked some up after the earnings announcement. It's near 2009 levels once again and has an upside of almost 20%.

 

[asianway]

So Lee, what is the reason you hear for them wanting to sell the parks division? It's profitable and a main cog in the Disney empire. I can't imagine a Disney Company without the parks.

And why would the Board be present if there are just offers being presented? The offers would be submitted, Staggs would evaluate them and then get the members of the Board's input individually to see if the offer is even worthy of being submitted. There would be no reason for the entire Board to be present until an actual sale were being voted on. Even at that, I would think the vote would take place someplace much more convenient for Board members (like NY or LA).

Disney, along with many other companies are wanting to run asset-light. The parks division is capital intensive and has a great deal of exposure to the economy. Imagine if another 9/11 happened tomorrow...

They are wanting to focus on creating content and collecting a check - Marriott in 1993 and Starwood in 2006 are good examples of companies divesting themselves of assets while continuing to collect royalties, and in some cases, a management fee as well.

 

[Zummi Gummi]

It seems like disney is trying to play hide the wdw figures game by lumping it in with Disneyland.

Anybody have the figures for just wdw alone?

They don't release those numbers, unfortunately.