Touringplans.com

[Leo!]

After my recent experience, I think I can't trust in the numbers shown in touringplans.com. I was really happy, cos regarding the page, all the days were 1, 2, or 3... and during my stay (october 14 to 22) the parks were almost PACKED.

Dissapointed really, cos I've purchased the membership to see the full calendar.



Any other bad XP with TP.COM?

 

[ohhector]

While I understand the nature of such things (predictions) is very volatile (weather, people are unpredictable in essence, etc), I found the numbers that showed for last week (when I was there) to be very off.

I could imagine being a little off here and there, but none of my experiences came even close to aligning with their predictions.

*shrug*

 

[Vtlsgns2]

I've had several instances of predicted crowd levels not coinciding with actual crowd levels, and I've had other instances in which they were very accurate. I think crowds are simply becoming increasingly difficult to predict. I was reminded this past crazy crowded weekend that they are predictions, not guarantees, but I empathize with your frustration.

 

[Testtrack321]

After my recent experience, I think I can't trust in the numbers shown in touringplans.com. I was really happy, cos regarding the page, all the days were 1, 2, or 3... and during my stay (october 14 to 22) the parks were almost PACKED.

Dissapointed really, cos I've purchased the membership to see the full calendar.



Any other bad XP with TP.COM?

I love them and trust them. Weird. Send an email to them to see what's up.

 

[corey154]

I wish I'd of read this before I bought the membership. I understand you can't fully predict crowds, but I figured they'd be pretty close. From what I'm hearing lately it's not.

 

[CP_alum08]

From what I understand, the guys and gals at Touringplans have no more information than you or I do about the parks. They have just taken all the past info, put it into a database and use that to determine the expected crowd levels. They also have people in the parks constantly checking on crowd levels. There is no possible way to predict what the crowd levels will be for any specific day. This year the end of Sept. and into Nov. was substantially busier than in past years, so even the predictions WDW themselves give would have been off.

If you are going at an 'off' time, I think you need to half expect it to be busy. From what people have said, there aren't the same empty park days as there have been in years past. The information you got on when crowds will be low, is available to everyone. And if people have the choice, I assume they will want to plan a vacation when it would (presumably) be the least busy. Which means there will be more people than expected.

I don't think Touringplans, which has had consistently good reviews, can be to fault. Their predictions for the same time next year will be slightly higher now because of this year.

 

[erstwo]

I keep thinking I'm going to start a thread about this, but haven't yet......

Disney sent me an email last week inviting me to "Book my Thanksgiving or Christmas vacation" Huh? You're inviting me 2 weeks before the busiest week of the year?! Shouldn't Disney resorts be PACKED OUT by now?

So I went on the website and sure enough, available rooms at ALL levels. Went to check my weeks ( 2 weeks after Thanksgiving - with free dining) only 2 (TWO!!) hotels available - Contemporary for $3000 room only OR All Star Music for $300 room only. That's it. Two options.

The difference? Value.

You'll pay 1.5 times as much for a room at Thanksgiving or Christmas PLUS you won't get Free Dining!

Value is what everyone is looking for these days, so I think more and more people are saying "screw it" and taking their kids out of school for 5 days to save a cool $1000 to $2000. And who can blame them?

SO, what used to be "down times" (Value times) are now the busiest times and the more Expensive times are going to be less crowded.

Anyone else think this too? :shrug:

 

[DisneyJoe]

TouringPlans Membership is $11/year, less than $1/month.

You are paying for their years of data gathering and statistical modeling, that just like other statistical models (weather/hurricane forecasting??) are only accurate to within certain tolerances.

TourngPlans constantly goes back and reviews their accuracy and makes adjustments - and publishes these in their blogs - not even the weather stations do that!

http://blog.touringplans.com/2010/09/09/park-recommendations-accuracy/

They also provide Cheat Sheets, a smartphone app/site called Lines, and a Ticket Calculator.

A good value, IMHO.

 

[cinderellafan6]

Yea I look at them but tend not to pay full attention to them. I think they have been off also so its not just u!

 

[HouCuseChickie]

I wasn't initially going to pay for Touring Plans. We'd already made a chunk of decisions for our trip, but I figured- what the heck. If it were $30-50 or more for membership, I probably would have skipped it...but for $11- it was worth the gamble.

 

[jimmaher]

I think they do a great job and the plans work great!

 

[adamcav]

I've always been more than happy with The Unofficial Guide, TouringPlans.com as well as 'Lines'.

As stated before, the predictions are based on data and it would seem at any time that Disney could do something to affect those parameters (unexpected promotions, etc.). I'm sure the touringplans crew adjusts constantly when they are given new info.

For the tiny membership fee (even less if you own the book) the resources provided are well worth it. I used 'Lines' during my August vacation and found it incredibly helpful (Thanks Len and team!).

I'm sure if/when Len sees this thread he'll take a look at things.

 

[todpatcam]

I agree - for the low cost it's not a bad deal but you have to know it's just an educated guess. __We were at WDW from 9/30 thru 10/6 and the crowd levels were rated very low but most days the crowds were pretty large. __The day they had Epcot as a good day was crazy crowded - you could barely walk through the world showcase. __We still had a great vacation but would love to be able to pick a less crowded week but who wouldn't.__

We're already looking forward to our 2011 trip in early Nov or early Dec :xmas:

 

[RonAnnArbor]

I think TouringPlans.com does a fantastic job - and their iPhone app is fantastic -- I use it all the time when I go to WDW and it is pretty accurate...

However, their data are only estimates, and it says that pretty clearly on the site. With the iPhone app, people update the real wait times in real time and you get true numbers.

THe last few years, October/November were clearly down somewhat from this year. The estimate for my days were 3, 4, and 2 respectively -- and in reality they were about 7, 7, and 8 a few week ago.

The estimates for ride wait times were also off (in some cases by more than an hour). They had estimates, for example for Soarin' to be 35 minutes, but in reality, the wait was 80 minutes for standby. Easily rectified by looking at the real-time posts by people in the park that day...but estimates were way off.

I've dropped them a line to see if they could change their "estimates" to realtime numbers since there are hundreds of people in the parks every day updating them on the iPhone -- but clearly no response. IRonically, they automatically update the fastpass return times in real-time, but not the real wait times.

 

[lentesta]

Hey Leo,

Thanks for using the site. You're right, we underestimated crowds by 2 or 3 points on our scale. Drop me an email, please, and we'll make things right: len@touringplans.com.

If anyone would like to determine the accuracy of the calendar, we post a comparison of the actual crowd levels versus the predicted crowds, for every day of the year, on the site. To see these numbers, click on the "Historical Crowds" link, then choose the past day you want to see. The section titled "Predicted vs. Actual Crowd Levels / Park Recommendations" has those data.

Len