Touringplans.com question

[dylan0511]

Does anyone know how accurate their predictions are? We are planning our park days around their mid October predictions and are wondering if they are somewhat accurate? Thanks in advance.

 

[G00fyDad]

We always go in October (or very late September) and have found that, while close, no site or book or any other information can predict what will happen with WDW attendance. It really is a crap shoot. While October still tends to be one of the least crowded months, I have seen crowds rise and fall each visit depending on a variety of things. Although it does seem that October has been getting steadily more and more crowded each trip. I remember our 2005 trip being almost empty of other guests. It was awesome. A literal walk-on for every ride, lots of open walking space, the weather was just right 75º to 80º every day and no rain. However, by our last trip it was ridiculous. Hot, humid, and people everywhere.

All of that being said, if any "prediction" site is going to be close, it is going to be Touring Plans.

 

[dylan0511]

Thank you. Right now I think we might be spared of too big of crowds because we don't have free dining our week, while the week before and after do. Right now predictions are good.

 

[copcarguyp71]

All of that being said, if any "prediction" site is going to be close, it is going to be Touring Plans.

I would have to agree. We also go in October and their prognostication is as good as any can be when making predictions based on historical trends, EMH's, regular park hours and such. We usually plan our days in the parks using their predictions but also enjoy freestyling at times as well. Some days you just wake up in the mood for a certain park and say "consequences be damned". I would say to get the most of the trip take TP advice into account but don't let it get in the way of what you think you would enjoy....it's vacation and a 30 minute wait in a cue can't take away the fact that YOU ARE NOT AT WORK!!!

Epcot will be busy no matter what for F&WF but I have never found it to be so crowded that is was not enjoyable but ADR's are not a bad idea although we have waited for walkups with success as long as you remember it is a vacation and be willing to downshift from the go go go mentality of daily life.

GO PHILS!!!!

 

[luv]

As they tell you in the book and on the site, a good plan is much more important than the days stuff.

The days are hard to predict. Obviously, if you aren't using the EMHs, you should avoid those. Otherwise, don't worry too much about days. And don't freak out if they Best Days change.

There really isnt any way to know who is the most accurate, days-wise. I mean, you could have four people go to one park each and count and all that stuff, day after day, all year long. Otherwise, it's too hard. There is no way to know. I love when people say this group or that group is more accurate...how do they know???

If I had to bet on anyone who does plans and such, I'd but my money on the UG/TP people. That's who I trust. But that doesn't mean they're right 100% of the time.

Have good plans, don't stress about days.

 

[G00fyDad]

Thank you. Right now I think we might be spared of too big of crowds because we don't have free dining our week, while the week before and after do. Right now predictions are good.

No problem. But keep in mind, the trips we have taken have only occured once during Free DDP. All of the others were right after it ended and it was still busier than mustard trying to ketchup.

 

[HouCuseChickie]

After 2011, I decided not to renew my Touring Plans subscription b/c their crowd predictions for our Aug trip that year were so far off it was pathetic.

I went it expecting crowd levels to be between 8s-9s...the biggest crowds we saw were nothing more than 4s. It also made me realize that the crowd predictions for our Dec 2010 calendar were pretty off as well. I just remember DH and I looking at each other in August 2011 --faced with a lvl 9 day in MK and realizing the crowds were on par with what we experienced back in Dec 2010 - which was supposedly a 1.3 level crowd day. Sorry- but that's not even close and it just made Touring Plans seem like a total sham and rip off to me.

Of course, membership is cheap enough if you want to try it, but from our experiences- we won't giving them any more $. I now use the info over on EasyWDW...it's free and I've found Josh's plans and crowd projections to be far more accurate than anything Touring Plans does.

 

[CP_alum08]

Like others have said, touring plans is based on historical data. The algorithms are well thought out and complex, but that doesn't mean they are perfect. Disney doesn't release any hard attendance records so a lot if it is speculation. But of the MANY, my money is on Touring Plans...literally

 

[dylan0511]

touringplans has historical data that you can examine to see how accurate their predictions are. However, they rate themselves using their last prediction, which has its problem (see below).

I'm a big fan of touringplans and have been a subscriber for years. I highly recommend them. However, there are 2 things about their predictions that I don't like:

• First, they are constantly revising their predictions, sometimes significantly. For example, a date six months in the future might be predicted as a "4", even though data from previously years indicates it was a "7". As the date gets closer and WDW adjusts park hours (one of the parameters touringplans uses to predict accuracy), the prediction for that date slowly rises. Sometimes a "7" isn't predicted for that date until only a week or so before. Since most people plan their vacations several months out, predicting a "7" one week before the day isn't very helpful. It seems that several people have written to them about this and I believe they've been working on algorithms to correct it. I get around this problem by looking at what actual attendance was like the previous year.
• Second, their newer prediction scheme is supposed to dump the days into "buckets", with the 10% least crowded days being a "1", and the 10% most crowded days being a "10". Mathematically, this means that the next 366 days should average to "5.5". Currently, their average is "6". For example, there are 41 "10" days but only 16 "1" days. According to their definition of the crowd calendar, there should be 36 or 37 of each.

Thanks, we actually noticed this morning that some days did change, some significantly, that prompted my question. We're going to stick with our plan for now and them maybe wing it while we're down there.

 

[dylan0511]

I would have to agree. We also go in October and their prognostication is as good as any can be when making predictions based on historical trends, EMH's, regular park hours and such. We usually plan our days in the parks using their predictions but also enjoy freestyling at times as well. Some days you just wake up in the mood for a certain park and say "consequences be damned". I would say to get the most of the trip take TP advice into account but don't let it get in the way of what you think you would enjoy....it's vacation and a 30 minute wait in a cue can't take away the fact that YOU ARE NOT AT WORK!!!

Epcot will be busy no matter what for F&WF but I have never found it to be so crowded that is was not enjoyable but ADR's are not a bad idea although we have waited for walkups with success as long as you remember it is a vacation and be willing to downshift from the go go go mentality of daily life.

GO PHILS!!!!

Are the rides busy during the Festival? Or just the world showcase?

 

[dylan0511]

After 2011, I decided not to renew my Touring Plans subscription b/c their crowd predictions for our Aug trip that year were so far off it was pathetic.

I went it expecting crowd levels to be between 8s-9s...the biggest crowds we saw were nothing more than 4s. It also made me realize that the crowd predictions for our Dec 2010 calendar were pretty off as well. I just remember DH and I looking at each other in August 2011 --faced with a lvl 9 day in MK and realizing the crowds were on par with what we experienced back in Dec 2010 - which was supposedly a 1.3 level crowd day. Sorry- but that's not even close and it just made Touring Plans seem like a total sham and rip off to me.

Of course, membership is cheap enough if you want to try it, but from our experiences- we won't giving them any more $. I now use the info over on EasyWDW...it's free and I've found Josh's plans and crowd projections to be far more accurate than anything Touring Plans does.

My wife likes easywdw and I think the predictions are pretty close so far. We usually go in the summer and have dealt with huge crowds on every trip, so we're looking for a little relief this trip.

Thanks everyone for the help.

 

[copcarguyp71]

Are the rides busy during the Festival? Or just the world showcase?

I would say WS draws the largest crowd of Epcot during F&WF but with Test Track shut down for renovations I would expect that the remaining rides would be a little busier from overflow. We will be there mid October so we are in the same boat. October remains our favorite time of year to attend.

 

[DisneyJoe]

For me, their tool for creating personal touring plans is where I get my money's worth with my subscription. I set up my personal plan for each day and it will evaluate and optimize it. I can then access if via the Lines app on my phone while I am on the trip, and follow it or not, and the plan will adjust as I go through my day. Having a plan is more important than knowing how crowded it will be.

 

[bethymouse]

I also looked at easywdw and it's free! We'll see if they're correct on Monday! Crowd levels are expected to be low 2's and 3's with one 4 I believe! There's another free website, but I can't remember the name!

 

[Mukta]

Touringplans.com mentions several times that a good touring plan is a lot more important that their best day predictor.
I love a good touring plan and theirs is the best.