Too many hotels?

[FettFan]

With the current construction of the Star Wars Hotel, the Riviera DVC resort*, and the newly announced "Wilderness Lodge Jr." being built on the former River Country site, is it possible that Disney just has too many hotels?

Often on these boards we complain about park overcrowding, and I think one of the biggest culprits toward this is the number of hotels and DVC additions that Disney continues to build at a breakneck pace.






*side note: If Nickelodeon decided to build their own Riviera Resort....would that be the "Nick Riviera Resort"?

Because I would totally sign up for that.

 

[Naplesgolfer]

With the current construction of the Star Wars Hotel, the Riviera DVC resort*, and the newly announced "Wilderness Lodge Jr." being built on the former River Country site, is it possible that Disney just has too many hotels?

Often on these boards we complain about park overcrowding, and I think one of the biggest culprits toward this is the number of hotels and DVC additions that Disney continues to build at a breakneck pace.






*side note: If Nickelodeon decided to build their own Riviera Resort....would that be the "Nick Riviera Resort"?

Because I would totally sign up for that.

I think in general they want to have more of their customers in the bubble vs offsite. DVC makes Disney HUGE amounts of money up front and creates large predictable revenue streams. I suspect we will never see another Disney hotel without a DVC component. The two DVC included resorts will have staggered openings so they don't compete for sales.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

I think in general they want to have more of their customers in the bubble vs offsite. DVC makes Disney HUGE amounts of money up front and creates large predictable revenue streams. I suspect we will never see another Disney hotel without a DVC component. The two DVC included resorts will have staggered openings so they don't compete for sales.

Yeah. Now as a newly minted dvc owner I get nervous that demand will go down at some point

 

[Naplesgolfer]

Yeah. Now as a newly minted dvc owner I get nervous that demand will go down at some point

I think we are somewhat protected by the fact that dues are due and paid regardless. You have to sell to stop paying. Then the new owner pay's.

 

[John park hopper]

Will Disney reach a point where they have so many hotels and DVC that they make the Disney parks exclusive for on site guests only ?

 

[Naplesgolfer]

Will Disney reach a point where they have so many hotels and DVC that they make the Disney parks exclusive for on site guests only ?

I don't know. My guess is that they more likely increase the advantages for staying in the bubble vs off-sites. I also think a year or so after the 50th the perks they just gave to the Disney springs "Partner" hotels will go away.

 

[JIMINYCR]

Will Disney reach a point where they have so many hotels and DVC that they make the Disney parks exclusive for on site guests only ?

I cant see Disney ever excluding guests who decide to stay off site. Disney gets a lot of money from locals and off site guests. But it is very possible that as a means of drawing guests in, they will offer exclusive perks for those staying in a Disney resort that off site guests wont get. Tiered FP+, discounted things etc. One other possibility would be Disney monitoring and enforcing non resort guests using Disney transportation without a fee. Its supposed to be a privilege reserved for resort guests.

 

[JIMINYCR]

is it possible that Disney just has too many hotels?

I think so. Disney will never think so. Just keep filling up those rooms and the parks. It doesnt matter if the attraction lines reach the other side of the park. We'll still keep adding more.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

OP, I had the same thought. I too wonder if all the new hotels/rooms will increase the already crowded parks? I suspect Disney knows this and has a plan, I hope!!!! The parks are already too crowded. IMO.

 

[marni1971]

One might say they’re competing now with Uni to have new resorts open before Comcast do. The latter have a lot more coming.

 

[StarshipDisney]

I don't know. My guess is that they more likely increase the advantages for staying in the bubble vs off-sites. I also think a year or so after the 50th the perks they just gave to the Disney springs "Partner" hotels will go away.

That would be a major plus if they eliminate that "Partner Hotel" thing. On the other hand, my fear is that in 5 years every single motel/hotel within 10 miles of Orlando will offer the "Partner" benefits.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Will Disney reach a point where they have so many hotels and DVC that they make the Disney parks exclusive for on site guests only ?

I've been saying something similar for a while. There is the AP/local equation to figure out. How do you tell someone who lives 15 minutes away (or in my case an hour and a half) that they can't come for a "day trip" without a Disney hotel res. Don't know that they could completely shut out visitors that are staying off site, but I think there will be "incentives" (extended park hours, maybe a pre-requisite for hard ticket events and other activities etc..) that will strongly "encourage" on property stays.

We're not there yet. Probably not in the foreseeable future, but at some point in time - yeah I could totally see an environment where Disney prioritizes on-property guests (a lot more than they do now). Logistically though, they'd have a lot to figure out.

I also think Disney Transportation will at some point be accessed/monitored by MB. (scanner on buses, monorail, boats, and Gondolas)

 

[Lensman]

Will Disney reach a point where they have so many hotels and DVC that they make the Disney parks exclusive for on site guests only ?

Good question!

I'm happy to be corrected, but I think Disney currently has about 35,000 rooms at WDW. If we use an 85% occupancy factor and 3 people per room as our average, that's 89,000 people. I think phase-one capacity constraints at MK kick in at 65,000 people, with a hard constraint at, what, 100,000? Epcot, DHS, and DAK add another 150,000-230,000 in capacity, for a total* of 215,000-330,000.

But Disney wouldn't want to have as many rooms as their capacity, they'd want no more room guests than their lowest attendance days. I don't have and couldn't find great statistics on that, but if we spitball it at 1/2 of the soft-limit of 215k people, that's about 110,000 people. But you could raise that number by adding in conference attendees and group event people - like the cheerleading attendees, who can fill rooms in off-season.

Anyway, I suspect if we refine the estimates we can get to numbers that are close to ones we could use to discuss their desired room inventory. And from a strategy perspective, I think Disney will always want offsite room inventory to take the bulk of the hit during slow seasons and years, but as a result need that room inventory to provide room capacity during peak season and the "good years".

* This total is misleading since I don't think Epcot, DHS, or DAK get anywhere near their soft limits, but we'll have to wait until we hear back from some people who have more accurate leaked or estimated numbers.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Any economic downturns will probably put the brakes on that happening. We have those downturns on a regular basis and there is no reason that it won't happen again. If there is a downturn, it is the high end/price areas that will feel it the most. I think that if they are thinking about setting it up so that the parks are an exclusive to onsite visitors only, they are headed for a major problem. And that is exactly when the offsite will be more likely to flourish, in my opinion.

 

[Cmdr_Crimson]

IMO instead of all these deluxe looking hotels why not do what Universal is doing and make something similar to the Endless Summer hotels make it a value based resort and much bigger for guests who have a smaller budget that they can still at least stay on property...I'm sure the All Stars, Pop & AoA get a ton of guests but, something with a simplistic theme to Disney and easier access within the property would be a better idea than just an overpriced stay on the Ol' Swimmin Hole..

 

[Lensman]

IMO instead of all these deluxe looking hotels why not do what Universal is doing and make something similar to the Endless Summer hotels make it a value based resort and much bigger for guests who have a smaller budget that they can still at least stay on property...I'm sure the All Stars, Pop & AoA get a ton of guests but, something with a simplistic theme to Disney and easier access within the property would be a better idea than just an overpriced stay on the Ol' Swimmin Hole..

I'm not quite sure what you're proposing for Disney. As you say, Disney already has All-Stars, Pop, and AoA. Are you asking for a *less themed* value property? Or are you just looking for non-bus transportation? If the latter, it's partial change but we'll get Skyliner transport from Pop/AoA to Epcot and DHS next year.

I do think that everyone would agree with you if you're saying that Disney should try to target actually providing good value again. But that might be a different fight.

I'd be interested in a resort capacity comparison between WDW and Universal Orlando. I'll start with a list of room counts:
All-Star Sports: 1920
All-Star Music: 1604
All-Star Movies: 1920
Pop Century: 2880
Art of Animation: 1120

Prime Value (though I think these are accepted to be more equivalent to moderates, though one could also argue that AoA isn't truly in the value category):
Cabana Bay: 2200
Aventura: 600

Value:
Endless Summer: 750 (Surfside) + 2050 (Dockside)

 

[xdan0920]

Incentives for staying onsite are going away, not expanding. Disney doesn’t need to offer incentives for onsite guests when onsite guests are willing to pay for extra access and pay a premium for their room.

 

[Lensman]

Incentives for staying onsite are going away, not expanding. Disney doesn’t need to offer incentives for onsite guests when onsite guests are willing to pay for extra access and pay a premium for their room.

I do worry about onsite incentives being "monetized".

 

[Disstevefan1]

With the current construction of the Star Wars Hotel, the Riviera DVC resort*, and the newly announced "Wilderness Lodge Jr." being built on the former River Country site, is it possible that Disney just has too many hotels?

Often on these boards we complain about park overcrowding, and I think one of the biggest culprits toward this is the number of hotels and DVC additions that Disney continues to build at a breakneck pace.






*side note: If Nickelodeon decided to build their own Riviera Resort....would that be the "Nick Riviera Resort"?

Because I would totally sign up for that.

Disney will continue to build and sell DVC until folks stop buying..... It's as simple as that.

 

[Cmdr_Crimson]

I'm not quite sure what you're proposing for Disney. As you say, Disney already has All-Stars, Pop, and AoA. Are you asking for a *less themed* value property? Or are you just looking for non-bus transportation? If the latter, it's partial change but we'll get Skyliner transport from Pop/AoA to Epcot and DHS next year.

I do think that everyone would agree with you if you're saying that Disney should try to target actually providing good value again. But that might be a different fight.

I'd be interested in a resort capacity comparison between WDW and Universal Orlando. I'll start with a list of room counts:
All-Star Sports: 1920
All-Star Music: 1604
All-Star Movies: 1920
Pop Century: 2880
Art of Animation: 1120

Prime Value (though I think these are accepted to be more equivalent to moderates, though one could also argue that AoA isn't truly in the value category):
Cabana Bay: 2200
Aventura: 600

Value:
Endless Summer: 750 (Surfside) + 2050 (Dockside)

What I am saying is they should make a value resort with simplistic Disney theming say with something themed to the Disney Comics for example, with bus transportation and the same other amenities you get at the other value resorts....

I honestly think that once skyliner POP & AoA will become a new in-between price of Value-Moderate or "Val-Mod" what I like to call it..Now that these hotels have an exclusive transport as similar to the Monorail resort lines Disney will figure out a way to gouge the guests who are staying at those hotels because of the new benefit of transportation...