The source i've spoken with has an excellent track record as well. On both this attraction as well as many others. They were the one who broke that initial info dump I posted back in 2022 when everyone else was assuming this was still a low budget overlay with hollowed out sets and very few AA's. This includes the amount of new original major characters being created, and that the AA's would not be face projected. As well as the fact that the attraction was going to open significantly earlier than originally planned.
I'll reiterate that I think the renders Archive posted did originate from Disney, not fanmade fakes. My contention is the way in which people are trying to extrapolate information and jump to conclusions based on what is and isn't present in them. These renders are extremely primitive and being used for testing internally, they're not in a remotely complete enough state to be making any assertions about how many figures are to be included. Whether those assertions are from Splash Archive, or from his friend who he says got ahold of the renders and simply relayed their own claims.
When Archive first posted about these renders on Twitter in July last year, he claimed that it would only have six animatronics, as the official finalized number. That post is still up for reference-
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When he was informed that he was missing three other characters that had already been confirmed nearly three months prior, he altered the claim to state that there would only be 9 figures. And THAT was now the true final number with no possible chance of any additional figures. This to me indicates that Archive's numbers are based on what either he or his friend are seeing from the renders, along with whatever else Disney has confirmed to the public so far.
To reiterate, the fact that every one of these renders demonstrates a different combination of characters present (one of them without any characters at all, and another showing two in a t-pose) should at least serve as a warning not to jump to conclusions here.
At this point, I am not the only one on this forum who heard that the ride will have a very impressive quantity of AA's. I don't think anyone has been told a specific number yet, they're keeping things close to the chest if they have. But several people with good track records here have also now independently heard from their own sources that the "dozens" claim by Disney is the real deal. And that it doesn't mean a meager 24 or even 36, but considerably more still. Allegedly something that should satisfy people who valued that particular aspect of Splash.