News The Walt Disney Company Q2 Earnings Call

Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Nubs70 said:
Forward looking statements in repect to Park attendance. With purchasing power falling 20% in the last 3 years, and continuing to decline, does $DIS foresee and state an expectation of a decline in attendance.
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They’re already there

And since ma, pa and kids don’t pile into the car on a random Saturday and go to a Disney park…their forecast estimates are known well in advance

And 20% is probably optimistic

The price gouging/credit crunch is relentless
 
Nubs70

Nubs70

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
They’re already there

And since ma, pa and kids don’t pile into the car on a random Saturday and go to a Disney park…their forecast estimates are known well in advance

And 20% is probably optimistic

The price gouging/credit crunch is relentless
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With purchasing power decreasing a significant percent, has PRGS and PCGS risen an equivalent percent? If PRGS and PCGS has not risen, the financial performance of the parks is underperforming.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Nubs70 said:
With purchasing power decreasing a significant percent, has PRGS and PCGS risen an equivalent percent? If PRGS and PCGS has not risen, the financial performance of the parks is underperforming.
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That’s a bit of acronym soup…

But if you’re asking do they have a spending problem in the parks unit - yes, they do

So far cuts and price increases have covered up decreases in numbers…but that isn’t sustainable
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
BrianLo said:
Except they won’t be marginal in 3 years. We should be comfortably at double digit percentage operating income by then.
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So they say

But alot of that is Bobism…whereas putting the logo on the screen over in demand content is enough

It’s gonna be a rough road. You got an obselete cable guy trying to assume it’s 1995…think it will work?

Or will he “retire” again?
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
So they say

But alot of that is Bobism…whereas putting the logo on the screen over in demand content is enough

It’s gonna be a rough road. You got an obselete cable guy trying to assume it’s 1995…think it will work?

Or will he “retire” again?
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He’ll retire just fine. Hopefully his replacement sticks.

But they’ve been right before and they’ll be right again.

Moderate term (three years) they need to achieve half of what they did in the prior 6 quarters over the next 12. Doing so should achieve double digit profitability.

What that means to me is much slower price hikes. 1$ annually x3. Or maybe a slight pause and then 2x $1.50. The ad tier level will still stay the same as shifting consumers towards it will be more profitable. All well hopefully and presumably still acquiring consumers with time. Then we’ll easily be 1+Billion a quarter in income.

The ultimate good news is that DTC is becoming a ‘self-funded’ entity. We can clearly see evidence of this with capex starting to flow back to parks.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
BrianLo said:
He’ll retire just fine. Hopefully his replacement sticks.

But they’ve been right before and they’ll be right again.

Moderate term (three years) they need to achieve half of what they did in the prior 6 quarters over the next 12. Doing so should achieve double digit profitability.

What that means to me is much slower price hikes. 1$ annually x3. Or maybe a slight pause and then 2x $1.50. The ad tier level will still stay the same as shifting consumers towards it will be more profitable. All well hopefully and presumably still acquiring consumers with time. Then we’ll easily be 1+Billion a quarter in income.

The ultimate good news is that DTC is becoming a ‘self-funded’ entity. We can clearly see evidence of this with capex starting to flow back to parks.
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We’ve been over this a ton

Netflix only got above water by spending a bazillion on content. That is likely not “optional”

We’ll see

They also assume a consumer that is under more and more price crunches each day will pay increasing fees and gobble up ads.

We’ll see
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
We’ve been over this a ton

Netflix only got above water by spending a bazillion on content. That is likely not “optional”

We’ll see

They also assume a consumer that is under more and more price crunches each day will pay increasing fees and gobble up ads.

We’ll see
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No, Netflix got above water by reducing their content spend; 2023 was rewound back to 2018 levels. Disney hasn’t even realized any content spend reductions.

Netflix further got above water by dialing up prices… and they are aggressively at a higher level than D+.

Consumers won’t be forced to pay more, they’ll be forced into the ad tier, which are relatively affordable for the consumer. But generates more revenue for the company than high priced non-ad plans.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
BrianLo said:
No, Netflix got above water by reducing their content spend; 2023 was rewound back to 2018 levels. Disney hasn’t even realized any content spend reductions.

Netflix further got above water by dialing up prices… and they are aggressively at a higher level than D+.

Consumers won’t be forced to pay more, they’ll be forced into the ad tier, which are relatively affordable for the consumer. But generates more revenue for the company than high priced non-ad plans.
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You’re not following Netflix’s strategy properly

They cranked the spending, got subs up and increased fees…and THEN throttled back. We don’t know if it will be sustainable yet?

But that’s what Disney is banking on. They may be right but it’s not a sure thing
 

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