The Red Button Option

[Sirwalterraleigh]

MoAr StImUlUs!!!1!

Stay tuned on that...

The scary concept is what might happen to travel if they don’t do it?...a very likely possibility. Bob Iger shouldn’t have quit the task force

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Politics and Social Issues

Want to talk about travel and money instead?!?

 

[_caleb]

even the most cynical person wouldnt have imagined this kind of issue (no matter how many episodes of 60 mins, and the next big plague is coming), i for one thought if the big plague hit wed all be dead or population would be cut way down. This is different than i think anyone could have expected. you are into sports... when have all sports ever been cancelled. You have theme parks... when is the last time all theme parks closed..... movie theaters all being closed.... ok so the land was totally destroyed... we still have boats!! I do like your idea of animation and post production moving to more work from home... but that does bring up internet safety or people leaking things much more than being in a centralized bulding.

I agree. Didn't mean to imply that Disney could/should have seen this coming, just that their business were pretty much all directly impacted by the virus.

I'm not sure the security thing is any more of a risk when working remotely than it is when working from a centralized studio anymore, but I get what you mean- internet security is a huge risk for a company like Disney, as are leaks!

 

[DDLand]

even the most cynical person wouldnt have imagined this kind of issue (no matter how many episodes of 60 mins, and the next big plague is coming), i for one thought if the big plague hit wed all be dead or population would be cut way down. This is different than i think anyone could have expected. you are into sports... when have all sports ever been cancelled. You have theme parks... when is the last time all theme parks closed..... movie theaters all being closed.... ok so the land was totally destroyed... we still have boats!! I do like your idea of animation and post production moving to more work from home... but that does bring up internet safety or people leaking things much more than being in a centralized bulding.

There are some unexpected outcomes, but I have to concur with what @Lilofan said above. Imagine how different this conversation would be if Disney had carefully saved money and paid off its debts. Entering this crisis Disney could have had ample financial reserves and almost no debt. Disney has made LOTS of money over the last decade. Instead of rapidly paying off obligations and saving they recklessly indebted themselves and paid out tens of billions to shareholders through repurchases and dividends. Their financial planning was stupid. It’s a well known fact that theme park operators should save money in case of contingency. Disney proved shortsighted.

Admittedly, this is not only a Disney problem. Businesses are shamed for keeping savings and operating debt free. Corporate raiders enjoy coming along to “unlock shareholder value.” This is code for mortgaging the business to funnel money to shareholders immediately. The longterm employees and investors are left with an indebted and over-leveraged business that will eventually end up in bankruptcy. Have no fear though, because the government will gladly bail the company out so it can continue “unlocking shareholder value.”

If all goes well, Shanghai Disney could end up being worth multiples more than it is now. If Disney is forced to sellout, it will because of shortsightedness and a failure to prepare for the worst scenario. That’s a failure of leadership.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Is that with or without the motorcycle death? Sorry I don’t buy any of these numbers. Too many agendas at play

Better not get in a car or use a cell phone or ever go to the doctor for anything.

The mathematics, science, and engineering that makes them 'work' is the same numbers game.

 

[ppete1975]

There are some unexpected outcomes, but I have to concur with what @Lilofan said above. Imagine how different this conversation would be if Disney had carefully saved money and paid off its debts. Entering this crisis Disney could have had ample financial reserves and almost no debt. Disney has made LOTS of money over the last decade. Instead of rapidly paying off obligations and saving they recklessly indebted themselves and paid out tens of billions to shareholders through repurchases and dividends. Their financial planning was stupid. It’s a well known fact that theme park operators should save money in case of contingency. Disney proved shortsighted.

Admittedly, this is not only a Disney problem. Businesses are shamed for keeping savings and operating debt free. Corporate raiders enjoy coming along to “unlock shareholder value.” This is code for mortgaging the business to funnel money to shareholders immediately. The longterm employees and investors are left with an indebted and over-leveraged business that will eventually end up in bankruptcy. Have no fear though, because the government will gladly bail the company out so it can continue “unlocking shareholder value.”

If all goes well, Shanghai Disney could end up being worth multiples more than it is now. If Disney is forced to sellout, it will because of shortsightedness and a failure to prepare for the worst scenario. That’s a failure of leadership.

have you ever seen the youtube user "business man" he basically goes over companies that have failed. While i disagree with his outcomes alot and think he doesnt research as much as he should instead relying on profits over expenses than what was going on in the world. Anyhoo, its really shown me how many big companies end up being bought out and with the cost of purchase + the debt they already have is almost always too much. Lets say i buy your company for 2 billion (good chance i can eventually get my money back), but if the company i bought had 10 billion in debt.. paying that 12 billion back is much harder... plus the interest rates. Thats whats happened to many huge and popular companies that "all of a sudden go out"

and honestly i thought lilofan was talking about the poster, not disney sooooo its def monday part 2

 

[George]

Now that Disney has gone under I'm kinda hoping the rumor I read a while ago about the Yum! Brands taking over theme park operations is true. Tasty and inexpensive. I'll be walking right down Main Street noshing on my soft taco supreme.

 

[Bullseye1967]

I didn’t there was a “consensus” on the duration of any kind of immunity...

But it’s tossed around by tv shows and morons...I’ve seen that.

Bummer about the hardwood

Not sure these guys are morons or have been on TV, but these are from the articles I looked at while considering whether to go or not.

"We do not have any reason to assume that the immune response would be significantly different" from what's seen with other coronaviruses, said Nicolas Vabret, a professor of medicine at the Mount Sinai Icahn School of Medicine who specializes in virology and immunology.

"We think that actually second cases of COVID are biologically possible, but they are extremely rare," said Dr. William Schaffner, Director of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt Medical Center.

"To date, We have seen no human reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 that have been confirmed. Evidence of reinfection typically requires culture-based documentation of a new infection following clearance of the preceding infection or evidence of reinfection with a distinct form of the same virus" Said Elie F. Berbari, Infectious Disease Specialist Chair, Infectious Diseases, Mayo Clinic.

 

[ImNoImagineer]

I'm currently looking at a model of our solar system. What's the margin of error for number of suns?

Just quoting George Box.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not sure these guys are morons or have been on TV, but these are from the articles I looked at while considering whether to go or not.

"We do not have any reason to assume that the immune response would be significantly different" from what's seen with other coronaviruses, said Nicolas Vabret, a professor of medicine at the Mount Sinai Icahn School of Medicine who specializes in virology and immunology.

"We think that actually second cases of COVID are biologically possible, but they are extremely rare," said Dr. William Schaffner, Director of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt Medical Center.

"To date, We have seen no human reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 that have been confirmed. Evidence of reinfection typically requires culture-based documentation of a new infection following clearance of the preceding infection or evidence of reinfection with a distinct form of the same virus" Said Elie F. Berbari, Infectious Disease Specialist Chair, Infectious Diseases, Mayo Clinic.

I’m not saying that opinion isn’t there...it’s just far from a “consensus” to vacation on at this point...

It took 3 milliseconds to find a descent opinion...

Redirect Notice

I just think we aren’t “sure” yet. Carry on

 

[ppete1975]

i have no idea why you guys are being scaredy cats.... i have no problem going anywhere. I did just get my new vacation outfit though.....

 

[_caleb]

If the Red Button Option is taken and China/HK don't provide OLC-level management of the parks, what recourse would Disney have?

 

[el_super]

Lets say i buy your company for 2 billion (good chance i can eventually get my money back), but if the company i bought had 10 billion in debt.. paying that 12 billion back is much harder... plus the interest rates. Thats whats happened to many huge and popular companies that "all of a sudden go out"

This was also part of Disney's strategy to prevent the company from being completely bought out by a Comcast or Google and just becoming another subsidiary.

 

[richlightshed]

I am likely to be announcing the biggest news/rumors I will ever make in this thread (at least, I hope so). As a preface to this information, please remember that this information should be treated as RUMOR. I cannot verify that any of the following information is true in part or in whole. You should not make any business decisions based on the information provided herein. While this information has some details of a political nature, its required to even post what is going on... please do not discuss the political aspects of this news in this thread.

The last 24 hours has been eventful for Disney. While COVID cases in Florida are problematic to follow, Disney has been using the death rate to best gauge public safety. Within the past 24 hours, those numbers have reached levels that put staying open for the Walt Disney World Resort in meaningful jeopardy. Closing WDW is immensely painful for the company, and Josh D'Amaro's main job at this point is to keep the resort running... but there could be a situation in which the resort simply can't remain active to guests. At this point, it appears increasing deaths in Florida are due to - and increasing due to - nursing home infiltration. Should that change, Disney could conceivably close the resort OR resort back to the Secure Circuit plan that would involve closing everything except Magic Kingdom and the MK resorts. A push in that direction comes from the concern that even with their most restrictive capacity ceilings in place, some parks simply can't generate enough demand to warrant staying open (except for the purpose of demonstrating that they can be open for stockholders).

To add further to the company's woes, in the past 24 hours there was a major breach of security at Twitter. While the news media is mostly focusing on a bitcoin scheme that was part of the Twitter hack, Disney (and other companies) are much more concerned about the seemingly true issue that hackers had access to all Direct Messages on the platform for verified accounts. I am told that a small minority of individuals within the company AND linked to the company through various current and former projects may have had information within those Direct Messages that would be damaging. Disney Legal has advised individuals who may have had damaging information in their Direct Messages to delete their Twitter accounts, and at least one individual of significant stature has elected to do so. There is real fear in Burbank that hackers have information about the company, about individuals within the company, etc, which would be particularly unpleasant to have released into the public sphere.

But it still gets worse... also within the past 24 hours, the Trump administration has dropped the hammer on the Walt Disney Company. First, there was an executive order in regards to Hong Kong which can absolutely affect Disney employees and Disney company plans. Attorneys for the company are currently reading through the executive order and seeking guidance from the Trump administration as to how the company can avoid seizure of property due to potentially aiding in the harming of Hong Kong citizens' democratic rights via indirect means. Because of the broad and non-specific language in the executive order, Hong Kong Disney may stay closed indefinitely, regardless of the COVID situation there. Furthermore, in a speech on July 16th, Attorney General Barr made headlines with a speech in which he disclosed the number of Chinese Communist Party officials working in Shanghai Disney management, including the number who have communist insignia on their desks. This sent a ripple through the Disney Company as they realized that US Intelligence has inside information about their Shanghai operations, and are confident enough to release that information. This puts the company in an exceedingly difficult place: stray from China's demands and everything can be taken like in the NBA situation... act in China's interests and the United States Justice Department may now come calling.

Numbers inside the company now project that cash reserves could hit as low as 6 billion by the end of September, with the possibility of this pandemic situation going into mid 2021. This is an unsustainable path. With all of the previously disclosed information provided, I can now provide insight as to what is driving a wedge between Chapek and Iger. Whereas Iger is interested in his legacy and protecting it at all costs, Chapek is a numbers guy. And Chapek is proving to be formidable in protecting himself from being the scapegoat he might have been if he had allowed it. Against the wishes of Iger, a plan is being developed inside the halls that Eisner built which would allow for Disney to sell and divest its interests in the Shanghai and Hong Kong resorts in a preemptive move to avoid losing them outright due to a possible cold war between the US and China. It is the Red Button Option. In that situation, Disney would use the sale of Shanghai and Hong Kong rights, while maintaining a licensing agreement for IP a la the OLC situation, in order to generate extra cash for a possible extended COVID world where Disney continues to be deprived of revenue streams. At this point the Red Button Option is still in its infancy as a strategy in conceptualization, but it can quickly be moved into actionable state if situations continue to deteriorate. Going forward with the Red Button Option is fraught with difficulty... not the least of which being that Iger might resign in protest.

As for Splash Mountain and other frivolous projects, the pendulum has begun to shift inside the company. More information to come at a later date. Power seems to be shifting from certain factions towards an "all hands on deck, save the financials" mode. It's about time.

please DM me on twitter @richlightshed

 

[Model3 McQueen]

Interesting. Seems probable, but I’ll still treat as a rumour.

As for those against Pro, I’m reminded of a situation from late 2018. An insider was sharing information about the final characters in the new Super Smash Bros game. He disappointingly claimed that there would only be two more characters, Ken and a Pokémon. We all flung hate at him; “You have no credibility! Banjo, Geno, Shadow and more will be in! You’re track record is shaky at best!”

Who did we get? Ken and a Pokémon. If something sounds disappointing or bad, it’s probably true.

Same with the Tower of Terror rumor at Disneyland. Everyone laughed at it and called it malarkey. In hindsight, it was rather brave to leak that information.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

please DM me on twitter @richlightshed

 

[Ldno]

Same with the Tower of Terror rumor at Disneyland. Everyone laughed at it and called it malarkey. In hindsight, it was rather brave to leak that information.

That’s always the case with inside information, a lot of it is hearsay, I mean who knows who’s giving him the information, but the most important question is how high up is the inside person. After taking the free imageering in a box course by khan academy the most important lesson Disney teaches them during brainstorming process is that they NEVER have a bad idea, they just shelf it for future use, just because it doesn’t happen now, gives it a higher chance they might do it in the future. The funny thing is that rumors in the theme park business is just a huge river flowing in this direction sooner or later.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

If the Red Button Option is taken and China/HK don't provide OLC-level management of the parks, what recourse would Disney have?

That would be my thought. In Japan, they can be reasonably certain that they can enforce their contract and control how their IP is handled. In China...?

 

[EricsBiscuit]

If the Red Button Option is taken and China/HK don't provide OLC-level management of the parks, what recourse would Disney have?

Probably not much of any but I would rather take what I can and jump ship from China. China is going to be a disaster.

 

[Model3 McQueen]

That’s always the case with inside information, a lot of it is hearsay, I mean who knows who’s giving him the information, but the most important question is how high up is the inside person. After taking the free imageering in a box course by khan academy the most important lesson Disney teaches them during brainstorming process is that they NEVER have a bad idea, they just shelf it for future use, just because it doesn’t happen now, gives it a higher chance they might do it in the future. The funny thing is that rumors in the theme park business is just a huge river flowing in this direction sooner or later.

Admittedly, I like the idea of Disney's chickens coming home to roost.. even if the factor is one they couldn't really control. I can't stand $hapek's leadership and ideas, and the yearly price increases needed to slow down at some point. But yes understandably these rumors should be taken with a grain of salt.. but never fully dismiss what is being said either.

I'm both surprised, and not surprised, that this Splash theme wasn't leaked before hand. Probably like you said, it was on the backburner and not thrust into the spotlight until 2020.. but you'd think something so big would leak somewhere.