The Debate Over The Biggest Blockbuster Of The Summer Comes To An End!

[DisneyDefenders]

I just got out of a screening of "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" and I must say that when the movie opens officially on Thursday at 8 PM, the debate over what movie will be the biggest blockbuster of the summer will officially come to an end.

While I liked Spider-Man 3, there are large numbers of people emerging from the theatre saying they didn't like the film. I predict Shrek 3 will drop down to #3 in the box office this weekend, as it isn't anywhere near to being as good as the first two installments. "At World's End" will surely be at #1, and I think Spider-Man 3 will stay at #2.

After seeing "At World's End," my worries that it wouldn't reclaim its title at the top of the all-time box office charts have been cast away. The "supposed" final installment of the trilogy ties the other two movies in together masterfully and because it does so, I would definitely recommend watching them before going to see this film.

All of the characters give their best performances yet, and the producers threw everything they've got at you with amazing battle sequences, some of the funniest moments from the comical characters we've come to love, and one of the best yet simplest allusions to the ride that inspired the movie.

I cannot offer any spoilers, as all who attended the screening were given a written statement that read "Do not reveal the many plot resolutions that occur throughout the film." Indeed, all of the questions left unanswered in "Curse Of The Black Pearl" and "Dead Man's Chest" are answered in "At World's End," and there are a few highly unexpected twists in the tradition of what we all love about the Pirates of the Caribbean movies.

As for this being the last installment of a trilogy...I'm not so sure that's precisely what they intended. The movie ends with another possible story to tell about Jack Sparrow, Will Turner, Elizabeth Swann, and Captain Barbosa. I imagine that they left it that way in case the results surpass even their own estimations, and will wow us in a few months with the announcement that the pirate adventure will in fact continue.

For now...I hope all of you enjoy "At World's End" as much as I did...I will surely be enjoying it again along-side audiences who will see it, as the biggest blockbuster of the summer sails into theatres May 25th!

 

[jesserin]

Thanks Chris! Can't wait to go see it next week! :sohappy:

 

[CaptainMichael]

Shrek will be number 2 this weekend. More kids are getting out of school and Spider-man has been out for awhile and seeing large declines. Also, the Shrek hype machine is alive and well.

 

[DisneyDefenders]

Shrek will be number 2 this weekend. More kids are getting out of school and Spider-man has been out for awhile and seeing large declines. Also, the Shrek hype machine is alive and well.

I wouldn't be so sure...I expect "Shrek The Third" will have a faster fall out than "Spider-Man 3" and that will put spidey back up at #2.

 

[NemoRocks78]

I wouldn't be so sure...I expect "Shrek The Third" will have a faster fall out than "Spider-Man 3" and that will put spidey back up at #2.

So you're saying that Shrek the Third, which is just coming off of a $121m weekend, is going to fall below the probable $20m or so SM3 will get for the weekend in just its 2nd? :veryconfu

Yeah... definitely not happening.

 

[k.hunter30]

Could you tell us if there is any scene or anything at the end of the credits? If so, is it worth staying to see it? (Note: the "scene" and the end of the second one was NOt worth staying an extra 5 min or so... IMO)

 

[DisneyDefenders]

End Of Credits

First...yes...I believe that Shrek will fall to #3 in the box office this week. It had a strong opening weekend, but the word is getting around that it is not as good as the first two and that will hurt it a great deal come this weekend when it has to compete not just against Spider-Man 3, but the biggest movie of the summer, "At World's End"

About the end of the credits...I had to get to the washroom pretty quickly once the credits started. I tried staying through, but I just couldn't. So it will be a nice surprise for me when I see it again on Friday.

 

[clarksfan95]

Shrek is sitting now on the not only the #1 best opening for an animated feature but also #2. It is much more popular with kids than any Disney fan might care to admit. I can't stand any of them, but when a third movie comes out and tops the 2nd...people should take notice.

Also, don't forget that Harry Potter is still right around the corner. He's become quite the movie Juggernaut and I think he'll challenge all of the May releases. Harry appeals to everyone....I see Shrek as mostly a kids movie and I see Pirates as more of a teenage/adult movie. Sure their are kids that like Pirates and adults that like Shrek and blah, blah, blah....but Harry Potter (another movie franchise that I just can't bring myself to totally love...it's a lot better than Shrek) has to be recognized as a contender for the top grossing movie of the year.

I'm sure Pirates will be good, but I won't say that it'll be the best movie of the year....I didn't like number 2...it had some funny moments and Johnny Depp is a great actor, but I thought some of the special effects were lacking in some areas and it dissapointed me. It'll definitely be big, but we shouldn't knock the competitor while they are plowing down everything else coming out this summer.

 

[DisneyDefenders]

Pirates Has The Widest Appeal

Shrek is sitting now on the not only the #1 best opening for an animated feature but also #2. It is much more popular with kids than any Disney fan might care to admit. I can't stand any of them, but when a third movie comes out and tops the 2nd...people should take notice.

Also, don't forget that Harry Potter is still right around the corner. He's become quite the movie Juggernaut and I think he'll challenge all of the May releases. Harry appeals to everyone....I see Shrek as mostly a kids movie and I see Pirates as more of a teenage/adult movie. Sure their are kids that like Pirates and adults that like Shrek and blah, blah, blah....but Harry Potter (another movie franchise that I just can't bring myself to totally love...it's a lot better than Shrek) has to be recognized as a contender for the top grossing movie of the year.

I'm sure Pirates will be good, but I won't say that it'll be the best movie of the year....I didn't like number 2...it had some funny moments and Johnny Depp is a great actor, but I thought some of the special effects were lacking in some areas and it dissapointed me. It'll definitely be big, but we shouldn't knock the competitor while they are plowing down everything else coming out this summer.

I have to disagree with you there...kids, teens, and adults alike love Pirates Of The Caribbean, where Harry Potter is actually targetted at an audience of children.

Look...I am not a basher of anything non-Disney. I'm just calling it like I see it. Yes, "Shrek The Third" did VERY well in its opening weekend, but having to compete against both "Spider-Man 3" and "At World's End" is hard enough, but is even harder when it is the weakest movie of the three. That's why I predict that it will be at #3 this weekend.

As far as Potter taking the top movie of the summer spot, I can't see that happening because it hasn't happened with any of the previous releases. Of all of the previous movies, the most recent one was the only one that I really cared for. But the reality is, they've all been good movies, but it's because of the audience they target that they don't get the top spot.

I come back to my point that Pirates has the broadest appeal, and that's why it has been in the top spots and will be again this year with "At World's End," especially once you've all seen what I have and understand what a great film this really is!

 

[darthjohnny]

All of the characters give their best performances yet, and the producers threw everything they've got at you with amazing battle sequences, some of the funniest moments from the comical characters we've come to love, and one of the best yet simplest allusions to the ride that inspired the movie.

I cannot offer any spoilers, as all who attended the screening were given a written statement that read "Do not reveal the many plot resolutions that occur throughout the film." Indeed, all of the questions left unanswered in "Curse Of The Black Pearl" and "Dead Man's Chest" are answered in "At World's End," and there are a few highly unexpected twists in the tradition of what we all love about the Pirates of the Caribbean movies.

I'm glad that the movie will really answer questions, just like the commercials promise.

That sounds great they have some cool references to the film. :sohappy:

 

[Tigggrl]

I have to disagree with one thing....YES I doubt Harry Potter will be the TOP movie of the summer, but to say that it is targeted to children is a bit blind! After all, I know plenty of adults who wait in line for hours to buy the book, and pre order it online. I have seen adults who claim to purchase 2 copies of the book, one for the kids and one for them. I myself have all of the books and the movies, and I would LOVE a time turner necklace, but just cant afford it right now. Have you seen the trailer? Its VERY dark, I truly think much darker than any before. I am not a child either.....well, at least not in age.....LOL.
Disney has managed to get an amazing marketing plan out of Pirates, finally something for the boys AND girls to enjoy, and the Princess and Pirates parties are a testament to this. Just don't count out Potter.....

 

[Nicole220]

Yes!!! I'm glad to hear it got a good review! Can't wait till Thursday!

 

[NemoRocks78]

First...yes...I believe that Shrek will fall to #3 in the box office this week. It had a strong opening weekend, but the word is getting around that it is not as good as the first two and that will hurt it a great deal come this weekend when it has to compete not just against Spider-Man 3, but the biggest movie of the summer, "At World's End"

Think about what you're saying here... Shrek the Third, a $121m opener, is going to FALL 85%+ IN ITS SECOND WEEKEND. You say that "word is getting around about it not being as good as the first two," so SM3 will take the #2 spot with around $20m for the 4-day, when most found SM3 to not be as good as the first two (and the word on that is/was huge about it being not as good as the first two or just a horrible film), and yet it fell only 60% on its second weekend. Suggesting an 60% drop for Shrek this weekend is even absurd. There is no way it will fall more than 50% for the 3-day.

 

[rbrower]

Thanks for the information!

 

[DisneyDefenders]

I have to disagree with one thing....YES I doubt Harry Potter will be the TOP movie of the summer, but to say that it is targeted to children is a bit blind! After all, I know plenty of adults who wait in line for hours to buy the book, and pre order it online. I have seen adults who claim to purchase 2 copies of the book, one for the kids and one for them. I myself have all of the books and the movies, and I would LOVE a time turner necklace, but just cant afford it right now. Have you seen the trailer? Its VERY dark, I truly think much darker than any before. I am not a child either.....well, at least not in age.....LOL.
Disney has managed to get an amazing marketing plan out of Pirates, finally something for the boys AND girls to enjoy, and the Princess and Pirates parties are a testament to this. Just don't count out Potter.....

Harry Potter is a series that is targeted to children. Whether or not some adults enjoy it too, is not in question. I am an adult who likes the series, but that does not take away that their target audience is children. The same goes for most Disney films...their target is children...but the ones that are done right get more than just their target in the net.

 

[DisneyDefenders]

Wait and see...

Think about what you're saying here... Shrek the Third, a $121m opener, is going to FALL 85%+ IN ITS SECOND WEEKEND. You say that "word is getting around about it not being as good as the first two," so SM3 will take the #2 spot with around $20m for the 4-day, when most found SM3 to not be as good as the first two (and the word on that is/was huge about it being not as good as the first two or just a horrible film), and yet it fell only 60% on its second weekend. Suggesting an 60% drop for Shrek this weekend is even absurd. There is no way it will fall more than 50% for the 3-day.

I stand by what I've stated. I believe that Spider-Man 3 will actually pick up from last week's numbers for a couple of reasons. Lots of people go to the movies over the long weekend and it is playing in more theatres than Shrek The Third is. I just really don't think that Shrek The Third can compete with two great movies like Spider-Man 3 and Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End in theatres, especially if it is playing on less screens than either of the other two.

Sunday night, the projected numbers will be in and we'll see who is right. :king:

 

[darthjohnny]

Shrek the Thrid is only playing on a handful of less theaters than Spider-Man 3 and Pirates 3.

I think Shrek will probably be in second place. Using the rules of halves, it might make just under $60 million.

I'm sure Pirates 3 will definately be #1. The only competition that Shrek might see is from that new movie, "Bug" but I think it will probably take 3rd, with Shrek taking 2nd, unless Spider-Man picks up from last week.

I guess we'll just have to see.

 

[NemoRocks78]

Sunday night, the projected numbers will be in and we'll see who is right. :king:

Indeed we will...

I'm sure Pirates 3 will definately be #1. The only competition that Shrek might see is from that new movie, "Bug" but I think it will probably take 3rd, with Shrek taking 2nd, unless Spider-Man picks up from last week.

Bug will not make more than $5-6m for the 4-day. It also is ZERO competition to Shrek the Third since it's an R-rated horror film.

My current top three 4-day predictions:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - $169.7m
2. Shrek the Third - $91.2m (though I could see it going down to around $80-85m or so - it all just depends on how the weekdays go)
3. Spider-Man 3 - $20.5m

 

[CTXRover]

Pirates should open very big this weekend if pre-sales are any indication. Fandango has reported presales that are three times greater than those for Dead Man's Chest this many days out from opening. All of the online pre-sale sites have indicated that pre-sales for Pirates are ahead of that for Spiderman 3 for the same number of day out from opening.

I believe the Thursday-Monday take will be huge. However, with the almost 3 hour running time leading to fewer showings per day, the competition taking up other available screens (unlike the virtually full reign that Spiderman 3 had at theaters) plus the fact that it is a holiday weekend spread over 4 days and that Thursday showings before 12am will NOT be included in the 3 day weekend total, I do not beleive Pirates will or can beat the 3 day record set by Spiderman 3 a few weeks ago. However, I do believe it can and should take the 4 day record, as well as the memorial day weekend record (which is currently 122.8 million over 4 days set by X-men: THe Last Stand in 2006).

I can almost guarentee that Shrek will be #2 this weekend. I'm still waiting to see how it fares over this week to determine how much, but I don't see it having the staying power the second did when it made 70+ in its second weekend (3 day) over the same period. The film is not generating the type of word of mouth its predecessors did for one good reason...it isn't very good. I thought the quality of the story was something akin to a direct to video sequel, which is a shame. Unlike Shrek or Shrek 2 which I saw again in the theaters with different groups of people, I have absolutely no desire to see Shrek 3 again, and I it seems my opinion is shared by many others. Repeat showings are the key to long-term success at the box office, and I'm not sure how much of that Shrek 3 will get. However, it may likely be the recipient of over-flow from sold out Pirates performances across the country, which will help beef up its second weekend.

I have no actual predictions yet, but I expect Pirates 4 day take, with Thursday previews, to be around 160-180+ million.

 

[Timmay]

I have to disagree with you there...kids, teens, and adults alike love Pirates Of The Caribbean, where Harry Potter is actually targetted at an audience of children.

Then you haven't been paying attention...we are way past stories for children at this point, and have been since the third movie/book.

Look...I am not a basher of anything non-Disney. I'm just calling it like I see it. Yes, "Shrek The Third" did VERY well in its opening weekend, but having to compete against both "Spider-Man 3" and "At World's End" is hard enough, but is even harder when it is the weakest movie of the three. That's why I predict that it will be at #3 this weekend.

But you are basing your prediction strictly from your own opinion...nothing more. I am sure there are many, many movie goers that do not see Shrek as the "weaker of the three". You just are not going to see Shrek drop over 80% at the box office this weekend.

As far as Potter taking the top movie of the summer spot, I can't see that happening because it hasn't happened with any of the previous releases. Of all of the previous movies, the most recent one was the only one that I really cared for. But the reality is, they've all been good movies, but it's because of the audience they target that they don't get the top spot.

I tend to agree that HP will not win the box office race this summer, but not for the reasons you say. If anything, it is getting too dark to appeal to a lot of people, especially kids!

I come back to my point that Pirates has the broadest appeal, and that's why it has been in the top spots and will be again this year with "At World's End," especially once you've all seen what I have and understand what a great film this really is!

Pirates has no more of a "broad appeal" than Spider-man...it is probably less. I predicted on this very board last summer that Spider-man 3 would not only break the opening weekend box office pull of POTC 2, but destroy it. I would be very, very suprised to see POTC 3 touch the opening weekend that Spider-Man 3 had. There are just too many factors that will go against this happening...like its 3 hour run time.