artvandelay
Well-Known Member
I haven’t seen the spoilers for who the two people are, but based on the edit it’s becoming obvious
-
The new WDWMAGIC iOS app is here!
Stay up to date with the latest Disney news, photos, and discussions right from your iPhone. The app is free to download and gives you quick access to news articles, forums, photo galleries, park hours, weather and Lightning Lane pricing. Learn More -
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
Survivor 49 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter PUSH
- Start date
This episode was very up and down. Before the immunity challenge, it was a little painful to watch with the boy band and Jeff trying to turn Kristina's moment into a transformative moment. But after the immunity challenge, it was Survivor at its peak.
It baffles me that people have such a bad read on Yellow Sophie. She was clearly on the bottom of the yellow tribe, and they made it very clear when they were upset she was still there instead of MC. They didn't even deny it when she told them to their faces that it hurts. Yet the yellow tribe plus Sage and Jawan still think she's on their side. Why?
Sage's plan was great, don't get me wrong, but it only works if everybody is on board. And Yellow Sophie will be the first one of that alliance voted out if she goes with them, versus potentially top 4 and able to make fire with the other group. I also think Sage started telling people this plan too early. She should've waited until she knew the results of the immunity challenge before trying something this big. Typically when there's too much time to think, it doesn't work out. Especially when there are people you're not totally confident about.
Taking out someone in the middle was a good idea for Rizo, Savannah, and the Sophi(e)s. Jawan and Sage had way too much power, and they were just flipping back and forth every time. They now have the power to take control with the extra vote.
Speaking of, is this the first time an extra vote has actually worked? They usually mean nothing. And Rizo had to have create that fake idol in order to read the room, right? Then decide whether to play his real one? Assuming that's the reason, it was brilliant. How he still has his idol at the final 7 is beyond me.
I was a little surprised that Blue Sophi didn't steal Kristina's idol. But she knew she had the votes to get Jawan. And I think it's very smart. She's in an amazing spot. She's tightly aligned with Rizo and Savannah, but she's not the head of the beast. I think she'll eventually use the KIP to take Rizo's idol when she does eventually decide to turn on them. I think it's a move that could potentially lead her to become the winner. I think she has the best chance to win out of anybody right now. She's right where you want to be this deep into the game. A legitimate player, but hasn't created too big of a target on herself. She's helping drive the decisions and strategy, but she's not taking the lead.
Also, Savannah's taunting of Jawan as the votes are being read was hilarious. She played into it so hard, making him think he got one over on her, knowing full well that he is going home. Amazing. I know she's divisive, but I love Savannah. I love a good villain.
And then Jawan taking Rizo's torch when he's voted out is the perfect conclusion to his story arc that he steals everyone's things without knowing.
Like I said... post-immunity challenge was peak Survivor. And this is why we watch.
Here are my updated rankings, again if they would win should they get to the final three.
The Favorites
1. Savannah
2. Rizo
3. Soph
Good Chance
4. Sage
5. Sophie
Off Chance
6. Steven
No Chance
7. Kristina
It baffles me that people have such a bad read on Yellow Sophie. She was clearly on the bottom of the yellow tribe, and they made it very clear when they were upset she was still there instead of MC. They didn't even deny it when she told them to their faces that it hurts. Yet the yellow tribe plus Sage and Jawan still think she's on their side. Why?
Sage's plan was great, don't get me wrong, but it only works if everybody is on board. And Yellow Sophie will be the first one of that alliance voted out if she goes with them, versus potentially top 4 and able to make fire with the other group. I also think Sage started telling people this plan too early. She should've waited until she knew the results of the immunity challenge before trying something this big. Typically when there's too much time to think, it doesn't work out. Especially when there are people you're not totally confident about.
Taking out someone in the middle was a good idea for Rizo, Savannah, and the Sophi(e)s. Jawan and Sage had way too much power, and they were just flipping back and forth every time. They now have the power to take control with the extra vote.
Speaking of, is this the first time an extra vote has actually worked? They usually mean nothing. And Rizo had to have create that fake idol in order to read the room, right? Then decide whether to play his real one? Assuming that's the reason, it was brilliant. How he still has his idol at the final 7 is beyond me.
I was a little surprised that Blue Sophi didn't steal Kristina's idol. But she knew she had the votes to get Jawan. And I think it's very smart. She's in an amazing spot. She's tightly aligned with Rizo and Savannah, but she's not the head of the beast. I think she'll eventually use the KIP to take Rizo's idol when she does eventually decide to turn on them. I think it's a move that could potentially lead her to become the winner. I think she has the best chance to win out of anybody right now. She's right where you want to be this deep into the game. A legitimate player, but hasn't created too big of a target on herself. She's helping drive the decisions and strategy, but she's not taking the lead.
Also, Savannah's taunting of Jawan as the votes are being read was hilarious. She played into it so hard, making him think he got one over on her, knowing full well that he is going home. Amazing. I know she's divisive, but I love Savannah. I love a good villain.
And then Jawan taking Rizo's torch when he's voted out is the perfect conclusion to his story arc that he steals everyone's things without knowing.
Like I said... post-immunity challenge was peak Survivor. And this is why we watch.
Here are my updated rankings, again if they would win should they get to the final three.
The Favorites
1. Savannah
2. Rizo
3. Soph
Good Chance
4. Sage
5. Sophie
Off Chance
6. Steven
No Chance
7. Kristina
dmw
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
definitely a better episode (except for Jeff trying to make the Kristina's emotions something bigger than they needed to be).
And, finally some serious thinking and attempt at big plays. I really enjoyed the editing this time. There were so many possible plans - most with serious probabilities for success.
The fake idol by Rizo... wow! That was a very interesting play. Caught me totally by surprise. And when his name came up so many times, I was wondering if Rizo had been blindsided big time.
I agree with @PUSH on the top three at this point.
I think Sage is probably the next one out. Her name has been tossed in as someone to fear. And, I can see the next episode being the easy vote out. After that, I think the leading alliance will break up and we will get a blindside of one of them.
BTW, do we have a Survivor 50 thread started yet? I have some thoughts on the players and the three tribe format...
And, finally some serious thinking and attempt at big plays. I really enjoyed the editing this time. There were so many possible plans - most with serious probabilities for success.
The fake idol by Rizo... wow! That was a very interesting play. Caught me totally by surprise. And when his name came up so many times, I was wondering if Rizo had been blindsided big time.
I agree with @PUSH on the top three at this point.
I think Sage is probably the next one out. Her name has been tossed in as someone to fear. And, I can see the next episode being the easy vote out. After that, I think the leading alliance will break up and we will get a blindside of one of them.
BTW, do we have a Survivor 50 thread started yet? I have some thoughts on the players and the three tribe format...
artvandelay
Well-Known Member
Kristina summed up the new era of Survivor perfectly:
“I’m here for the journey and experience”
But, it was good to hear yellow Sophie say she wants the money.
“I’m here for the journey and experience”
But, it was good to hear yellow Sophie say she wants the money.
I was thinking about this last night... the casting has become too heavily focused on people who are here for the personal growth. That's not why we watch Survivor. We want people who come to play and want to win the game. We aren't here to watch summer camp.
I don't think it necessarily has to do with everyone being a super fan, because we clearly have super fans on this season who are here to play (Rizo, Savannah, Soph, Sophie...). That's why I like them. It's why I like Sage, too. I don't care for Kristina, because she's just here to make friends and doesn't really want to win the game. The two can overlap, but winning the game has to be the main motivator. I think that's why I like a season like Second Chances so much... they were all playing so hard to win.
Jeff is out of touch with what draws fans in. His choices as a producer prove that. I've been saying Jeff is not a great producer, but is a good host. I feel like his hosting has been slipping the more I watch these recent seasons, though. He needs to be asking them tougher questions like he used to. He always used to talk about how he's a part of the game, and navigating him is part of playing Survivor. Now, they just have friendly conversations with him and go on their way.
I saw a clip of Rob C talking about how Survivor 51 and 52 are going to be pivotal seasons. Where they go after 50 is going to be crucial for the show's long term fate. If it continues like they have in 41-49, the show won't last much longer. If they can reinvent it and make it interesting again, it's a format that can work forever. But it's been so predictable for 10 seasons. They used to change things every season, and it made it interesting. Yes, we complained about things, but it was better than us having nothing to talk about. These past couple seasons, I haven't really felt anything regarding the show. And that's concerning for a die hard fan like me.
artvandelay
Well-Known Member
I listened to Rob’s Q+A podcast. He did talk about 51 and 52 being pivotal. It worth a full listen. Rob knows they’re never leaving Fiji, but try to mix things up. Go back to 2 tribes, bring back themed seasons, change the casting process.
Seems like Jeff is trying to bring his cancelled talk show to Survivor.
I started the podcast, but haven't gotten all the way through yet. I agree with him that production has gotten very stubborn in the new era. Jeff has continuously told us that the way they're doing it is the best way to do it, even if nobody else thinks so.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
I'm cautiously optimistic that they'll want to change things up after 10 seasons and that this season showed the benefits of tribe swaps keeping the game dynamic.
The stubbornness is confounding because this is a show that has always worked to change things up and keep things fresh.
It's weird when they do something like final four fire making and just decide that is has to be permanent. Granted, the goal of that is to increase the chances of a popular player make it further. The appeal TV product does need to be considered.
I think they'll have to do something. They've always said the reason they're still on is their ability to change and try new things. I assume post-covid they were given a smaller budget to produce the show. Even still, they can still do things to mix it up. They could still take a different approach to casting, create new and unique challenges, etc. I wish they would do more fun rewards. The sanctuary just isn't it.
48 and 49 just feel like they gave up until after 50. These are the most stale seasons I can remember since probably the couple years following Heroes vs Villains. What did they do to get out of the "dark ages"? They changed their casting process, switched the number of starting tribes frequently, and started going with new themes. Maybe that could work again.
For being a unanimous, straight forward vote, this was a pretty interesting episode.
I'll start with the things I didn't like, because you all know I'm critical of this show. But it comes from a place a love and respect for it. The Steven escapade was unnecessary. The note he read said the easy part is remembering the numbers, and the hard part is figuring out the lock. Was the combination not just the numbers in order?? What's hard to figure out about that? I get that there would probably be hundreds of possible combinations, so they had to make it somewhat doable, but don't word it that way then. Also... the thing barely rose from the time he originally started??? Last, the note says nobody will know who played it... I call BS. Who could have played this?? Oh, maybe the guy who just went on a journey to get an advantage!
I also didn't love the immunity challenge. They need to create new ones, not rework old ones. They made the challenge easier (I'm assuming to cut down the length that the challenge takes). The challenge was literally just walking back and forth. They could adjust their tower each time. They don't have to balance anything. I think one tower dropped, which shows how easy it was. There was no challenge.
Lastly, I absolutely hated how Jeff tried begged them to impersonate him pre-challenge. You know it's repetitive when they come in and say, "yep, I know exactly how this will go". And then he asked Sophi to be him?! What?! I have so much respect for Sophi for saying, "nah, I'm good." But then Steven played teacher's pet and volunteered!
I hated everything about it.
Alright moving on, because this was actually a fascinating episode when it comes to strategy and motivations.
Taking out Savannah was seemingly best for Steven, Kristina, and Sage. Sage let her emotions get in the way. Maybe she think Sophi will flip at the next vote and they can take out Savannah. If that's the case, fine. But the reason we were given on TV was pure pettiness.
Steven and Kristina were totally played by Rizo. Yes, Steven gets to keep his advantage, but he didn't clock that Rizo was manipulating and playing them.
Rizo seemingly doesn't have to do a whole lot to get people to believe him. He's controlled multiple votes by barely saying anything. I'm not sure why they all trust him? In this case, it looks like he actually was being trustworthy because he did vote Sophie, but it was purely to protect Savannah.
The most interesting person in this vote is Sophi. I think she made the right choice. If she takes out Savannah, she immediately become the biggest threat left. She will be vulnerable at some point before the final four. However, if she boots Sophie out, she still has the numbers to get Savannah next. She'll have herself, Steven, Kristina, and Sage. If they're able to do that, she could then steal Rizo's idol at the final 5 when he thinks he's safe and take him out. Then she guarantees herself a chance to make fire and get to the end. That's a lot that has to go her way, but it's not crazy to foresee if you're in her position. Based on everyone's motives, it seems quite logical. Do I think that will happen? No. But I do get the feeling she needs to make a play with Rizo's idol to win. Otherwise Savannah and/or Rizo will likely also be in the final three and win over her. She needs a play to get votes in the end, but she is in a great position to do so.
If I had to bet right now, I would say Sophi is the winner of the season. Savannah has the potential to be a losing finalist because she's rubbed people the wrong way. I could see Kristina as the zero vote finalist, because who's voting for her? She's done nothing and has played poorly. I can see a world where Sophi sticks with Savannah because they trust her, and she make the play on Rizo to steal his idol, in order to separate herself from Savannah and stand out.
It'll be an interesting final few votes.
Here are my power rankings by who wins if they get to the end. Nothing really changed. You could convince me Sage should be in the lower tier, and Steven should be in the higher tier. In reality, they're probably somewhere in the middle. They aren't bad players, but I just don't see either of them winning. That's likely influenced by the edit, though.
The Favorites
1. Savannah
2. Rizo
3. Soph
Good Chance
4. Sage
Off Chance
5. Steven
No Chance
6. Kristina
Also, adding another thought... Sophie was a great character. She was purpled to start the season, but she was so good when we got to finally see her. She was strategic, and she was good in confessionals. I really liked her, and I would love to see her play again.
I'll start with the things I didn't like, because you all know I'm critical of this show. But it comes from a place a love and respect for it. The Steven escapade was unnecessary. The note he read said the easy part is remembering the numbers, and the hard part is figuring out the lock. Was the combination not just the numbers in order?? What's hard to figure out about that? I get that there would probably be hundreds of possible combinations, so they had to make it somewhat doable, but don't word it that way then. Also... the thing barely rose from the time he originally started??? Last, the note says nobody will know who played it... I call BS. Who could have played this?? Oh, maybe the guy who just went on a journey to get an advantage!
I also didn't love the immunity challenge. They need to create new ones, not rework old ones. They made the challenge easier (I'm assuming to cut down the length that the challenge takes). The challenge was literally just walking back and forth. They could adjust their tower each time. They don't have to balance anything. I think one tower dropped, which shows how easy it was. There was no challenge.
Lastly, I absolutely hated how Jeff tried begged them to impersonate him pre-challenge. You know it's repetitive when they come in and say, "yep, I know exactly how this will go". And then he asked Sophi to be him?! What?! I have so much respect for Sophi for saying, "nah, I'm good." But then Steven played teacher's pet and volunteered!
I hated everything about it.Alright moving on, because this was actually a fascinating episode when it comes to strategy and motivations.
Taking out Savannah was seemingly best for Steven, Kristina, and Sage. Sage let her emotions get in the way. Maybe she think Sophi will flip at the next vote and they can take out Savannah. If that's the case, fine. But the reason we were given on TV was pure pettiness.
Steven and Kristina were totally played by Rizo. Yes, Steven gets to keep his advantage, but he didn't clock that Rizo was manipulating and playing them.
Rizo seemingly doesn't have to do a whole lot to get people to believe him. He's controlled multiple votes by barely saying anything. I'm not sure why they all trust him? In this case, it looks like he actually was being trustworthy because he did vote Sophie, but it was purely to protect Savannah.
The most interesting person in this vote is Sophi. I think she made the right choice. If she takes out Savannah, she immediately become the biggest threat left. She will be vulnerable at some point before the final four. However, if she boots Sophie out, she still has the numbers to get Savannah next. She'll have herself, Steven, Kristina, and Sage. If they're able to do that, she could then steal Rizo's idol at the final 5 when he thinks he's safe and take him out. Then she guarantees herself a chance to make fire and get to the end. That's a lot that has to go her way, but it's not crazy to foresee if you're in her position. Based on everyone's motives, it seems quite logical. Do I think that will happen? No. But I do get the feeling she needs to make a play with Rizo's idol to win. Otherwise Savannah and/or Rizo will likely also be in the final three and win over her. She needs a play to get votes in the end, but she is in a great position to do so.
If I had to bet right now, I would say Sophi is the winner of the season. Savannah has the potential to be a losing finalist because she's rubbed people the wrong way. I could see Kristina as the zero vote finalist, because who's voting for her? She's done nothing and has played poorly. I can see a world where Sophi sticks with Savannah because they trust her, and she make the play on Rizo to steal his idol, in order to separate herself from Savannah and stand out.
It'll be an interesting final few votes.
Here are my power rankings by who wins if they get to the end. Nothing really changed. You could convince me Sage should be in the lower tier, and Steven should be in the higher tier. In reality, they're probably somewhere in the middle. They aren't bad players, but I just don't see either of them winning. That's likely influenced by the edit, though.
The Favorites
1. Savannah
2. Rizo
3. Soph
Good Chance
4. Sage
Off Chance
5. Steven
No Chance
6. Kristina
Also, adding another thought... Sophie was a great character. She was purpled to start the season, but she was so good when we got to finally see her. She was strategic, and she was good in confessionals. I really liked her, and I would love to see her play again.
Last edited:
dmw
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Some more good strategic thinking in this episode.
I am wondering if the knowledge is power (KIP) advantage could be used against Steven, and how that might work. Steven has to declare he is using it and name the player whose vote would be blocked - BEFORE tribal. So, if the KIP is played at tribal, would Steven have to announce whose vote he blocked? That certainly could make for a very wild tribal with lots of side conversations. That is something that would be fun to watch!
Steven has definitely moved up. He could be a surprise finalist with a legit story on how he survived being on the bottom for so long. If he can lead or help orchestrate a blind side, I think he has a shot at winning. And, if he wins the next immunity challenge, I think that will solidify his chances at making the final three.
Rizo is the player to beat. I think more so than Savannah and Sophi, but those are the top three right now. However, I expect one of them will be the next member of the jury.
Sage... She lets her emotions get in the way. No chance she wins as she cannot think strategically.
I agree with @PUSH that Kristina might be the zero vote tagalong for the final three. Definitely no chance of winning.
I am wondering if the knowledge is power (KIP) advantage could be used against Steven, and how that might work. Steven has to declare he is using it and name the player whose vote would be blocked - BEFORE tribal. So, if the KIP is played at tribal, would Steven have to announce whose vote he blocked? That certainly could make for a very wild tribal with lots of side conversations. That is something that would be fun to watch!
Steven has definitely moved up. He could be a surprise finalist with a legit story on how he survived being on the bottom for so long. If he can lead or help orchestrate a blind side, I think he has a shot at winning. And, if he wins the next immunity challenge, I think that will solidify his chances at making the final three.
Rizo is the player to beat. I think more so than Savannah and Sophi, but those are the top three right now. However, I expect one of them will be the next member of the jury.
Sage... She lets her emotions get in the way. No chance she wins as she cannot think strategically.
I agree with @PUSH that Kristina might be the zero vote tagalong for the final three. Definitely no chance of winning.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
Being in the middle seems like it's a great place to be in. For one episode. Then neither side really trusts you.
Unanimously allowing Steven to go on the journey at the final seven is wild.
Unanimously allowing Steven to go on the journey at the final seven is wild.
Jeff clarified the KIP rules with Steven's advantage in his podcast or an interview (can't remember which). Steven has to declare who his is blocking before they even go to Tribal. He will do it in his final "walk" (aka going with a producer to do a confessional) before Tribal. Therefore, he's played it, so it can not be stolen by Sophi after that point.
I also disagree that Sage can't think strategically. Yes, she let her emotions get in the way this episode. But she's been surprisingly strategic. I didn't think she would. Sage led the Shannon blindside. She was in on the decision to vote Nate. She also was trying to pull the strings to vote Savannah in the last episode. It didn't work, but she showed she has the strategic ability.
So Savannah posted on TikTok that the beef between her and Kristina at Tribal was actually planned. They decided to say that to throw Sophie off, because Kristina told Sophie she was voting for Savannah, and Savannah said she was voting for Kristina. Savannah talked about how Jeff said the best players use Tribal to their advantage, and that's what she did.
artvandelay
Well-Known Member
Glad to see most of the players mention that they’re playing to win a million dollars (Survivor should really up the winners amount. 2 million would be nice).
Surprised to hear Sage and the Sophie’s talk about Savanah winning the game. The edit we’re getting is that Savanah is a “mean girl”, but three players think if she makes it the end she’d win.
Blue Sophie realizes she needs to do something should make for an interesting episode next week.
Better episode this week. Steven’s block a vote and Sophie’s KIP should come into play.
Surprised to hear Sage and the Sophie’s talk about Savanah winning the game. The edit we’re getting is that Savanah is a “mean girl”, but three players think if she makes it the end she’d win.
Blue Sophie realizes she needs to do something should make for an interesting episode next week.
Better episode this week. Steven’s block a vote and Sophie’s KIP should come into play.
dmw
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Yeah, after taxes, $1M is going to be about $600k, depending on the state in which you reside. It really is sad to hear the survivors talking about how life changing the prize will be, how they want to take care of family, etc. As young as most survivors are, that prize is not going to last very long. Just google past winners and where they are today. Most note that their lives have not changed very much. There are some exceptions (ie Boston Rob).
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
In the unlikely event that people are less willing to play for the prize money as is, they can always recruit more Canadian players.
That works out to just under $1.4 million CAD and it is not taxed.
Ultimately, this is a TV show that isn't as popular as it once was. There's no reason for them to increase costs when it will have no impact on the show content or ratings.
That works out to just under $1.4 million CAD and it is not taxed.
Ultimately, this is a TV show that isn't as popular as it once was. There's no reason for them to increase costs when it will have no impact on the show content or ratings.
artvandelay
Well-Known Member
Survivor’s own Jeff Kent has been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame