Surprise! Red Tier Now Begins Sunday; Downtown Disney Restaurants???

[TP2000]

I'm shocked you're so casual about 2 million deaths. We've spent billions fighting terrorism over thousands of deaths, but 2 million deaths from disease is no problem.

You're also assuming hospitals keep functioning, which isn't the case at the moment.

And what you haven't reckoned with - these deaths are preventible. There is an effective vaccine. If we can survive another couple of months, everyone can get vaccinated and not get covid and die.

Disneyland will open back up. It won't be because you've convinced the world that 2 million deaths aren't something to worry about, but because of science and research that has stopped covid from spreading.

2,330,430 people haven't died. That was the cocktail napkin math I did assuming that every single 335 Million Americans would all get Covid and then survive or die based on CDC survival rates for the disease.

Today's end of year total for the USA is 352,210 deaths from, or with, Covid in calendar year 2020.

About 3 Million Americans drop dead every single year, give or take a hundred thousand.

It will take at least six months to get "every" American vaccinated, that's 335 Million people who need two doses, or about 670 Million doses of vaccine that need to be distributed and administered. Perhaps 9 months or longer. I think it will be a medical miracle if you can convince 200 Million Americans to get both vaccinations by the end of 2021, but that's just me.

I'm actually considering not getting the vaccine now. I'm pretty sure I already had Covid last February, and there's a lot of unknowns on this vaccine and its side effects; doctors and nurses collapsing in allergic shock, etc. The cocktail party chatter amongst my group the past couple weeks has been to let all the panicky & sickly folks who have co-morbidities go to the front of the line and let us old duffers who can still play a bit of tennis or golf wait this one out.

But if later this summer when I go to CVS and they are begging customers to use up all the Covid vaccines sitting around in their freezer, I might get the shot.

 

[castleparker]

Here is a good article on the loss of life expectancy. From the article, "2.5 million person-years of life have been lost due to the pandemic, in just the US alone. This corresponds to an average loss of 13.25 person-years for each COVID-19-related death, he says. This astounding cost will probably surprise many people, given the apparent public view that COVID-19 mainly affects elderly individuals and is of less concern to other age groups, writes Elledge. In fact, the study showed that almost half of the potential years of life lost occurred among non-elderly populations."

 

[1HAPPYGHOSTHOST]

I am so sorry to hear this. But yes I we should take this VERY VERY seriously. Just because you may feel healthy and safe doesn't mean it will extend to other family members and friends you know.

He has four daughters. I can't imagine what they are going through.

I know some people here don't want to hear this, but keeping the theme parks closed really do look like the right call in hindsight seeing how bad California has gotten. We are currently at 0% ICU beds in the entire state according to articles I read today. Don't know how accurate that is but either way the news isn't getting better here.

I know this is a few days later, but please update us on your uncle when you can!

Thank you for your kind words

 

[mimitchi33]

I haven't been in this much because rehashing the same arguments over and over and over is tedious to me, however,
Mary Ann died today of covid!!! How can anyone now not be for a complete lock down!??? We've got to stop this before Ginger goes!

Add Betty White to that list too. Now everyone will go nuts if THAT happens.

And on the topic, how are these people catching COVID if there's a mask requirement there?

 

[castleparker]

And on the topic, how are these people catching COVID if there's a mask requirement there?

A variety of things are causing this. Lack of compliance on an unenforceable requirement, for one. Also the fact that many are not wearing masks when visiting loved ones, where I believe the majority of spread is happening.

 

[mimitchi33]

A variety of things are causing this. Lack of compliance on an unenforceable requirement, for one. Also the fact that many are not wearing masks when visiting loved ones, where I believe the majority of spread is happening.

Being that it was a nursing home, I assume it was the latter being how they got COVID. Thanks!

 

[DisneyDrum]

Add Betty White to that list too. Now everyone will go nuts if THAT happens.

And on the topic, how are these people catching COVID if there's a mask requirement there?

Masks aren’t 100% effective. Health care workers have to get fitted to make sure their masks work correctly. Masks are better than no masks, but we won’t be through this until vaccine distribution moves forward.

 

[planodisney]

California numbers are now almost double case and death numbers here in Texas and we haven’t been shut down in any meaningful way for months. Just mask requirements.
Schools are all open, kids indoor and outdoor sports all taking place, churches open and all restaurants are open for indoor dining.
Six flags is open for Christmas holiday.

 

[Travel Junkie]

California numbers are now almost double case and death numbers here in Texas and we haven’t been shut down in any meaningful way for months. Just mask requirements.
Schools are all open, kids indoor and outdoor sports all taking place, churches open and all restaurants are open for indoor dining.
Six flags is open for Christmas holiday.

Despite the latest surge, CA still has vastly better overall numbers than places such as Texas or Florida when you look at deaths per capita.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

You can't really look at one or two things and say this reason or that reason is why a place is doing better at one moment in time. It goes in waves. Even places that have done so well like South Korea have seen a recent bump. It doesn't mean South Korea all of a sudden is doing a horrible job at managing the virus. It is simply very difficult to control.

This LA Times article goes into an explanation of why we see a huge surge in LA County. LA in particular and CA in general was always more susceptible to uncontrolled spread than other parts of the country. That partly explains why there have been stricter measures in place. For the most part the state has managed better than others despite being so large. However it has finally caught up. It also hurts the situation when so many are going out of their way to make things worse such as holding mass gathering events, knowing full well what the result will be.

L.A. was uniquely vulnerable to this COVID catastrophe. Here is what went wrong

L.A. was far more vulnerable to an extreme crisis from the coronavirus than nearly anywhere else in the nation.

www.latimes.com

 

[unmitigated disaster]

Here's a link to a post on reddit that has a letter from the EMS Agency in LA. Right now if you go into cardiac arrest outside of a hospital and the paramedics can't revive you they're declaring you deceased instead of rushing you to a hospital.

 

[TP2000]

Which again, you are so casual about. But it doesn't matter, since they were all old people who were going to die anyway.... How does a sizable amount of people lack such empathy?

Empathy is one thing. Virtue Signaling over every single death is quite another.

Right now in this country people are dying. A few young men have been shot and are bleeding out in a dirty gutter in Chicago. A mother of three just died instantly when her minivan was hit by an 18 wheeler on an icy road in Oregon. A young child drowned today in a backyard pool in Tampa. An 84 year old woman in a Vermont nursing home passed away in her sleep during her post-lunch nap. Etc., etc., etc. About 8,000 Americans die every day. In the time it took to read this post, a couple dozen people died in America.

But we can't all just live constantly in mourning because of that. We must focus on those we know and love, and our own community and family. If you tried to be sad for the thousands of Americans who die every day, you'd quickly go insane.

The question is... at what cost is it appropriate to ruin tens of millions of lives, not to mention stunting the education of a hundred million American school children? In a huge nation where about 3 Million die every year, was 350,000 deaths of primarily old and sickly people worth destroying the economy and permanently closing tens of thousands of businesses? Is it worth it to continue these closures indefinitely until such mythical time when all 335 Million Americans have received a vaccine and no one dies?

Disneyland is still closed. Downtown Disney restaurants are still closed, even though there is no Science & Data that proves outdoor dining spreads Covid. So we just do this for another six months? Eight months? And then what? For what purpose?

 

[TP2000]

Well, you know, when you keep emphasizing that if you're over 70ish you've outlived your time on earth, so it's okay that you die, you kind of have to expect it.

I'm just using Science & Data.

The average life expectancy for Americans right now is 78 years old. I don't think it's wise to expect any of us to live to be 120 years old. On average, we will die in our late 70's. Some of us may make it into our 90's (I've had a few relatives do that with ease), some of us may not make it past our mid 60's.

If the Science & Data bothers you and you want to pretent you will live to be 120 instead of 78, I don't know what to tell you. But I wouldn't bet on that outcome if I were you.

 

[castleparker]

was 350,000 deaths of primarily old and sickly people worth destroying the economy and permanently closing tens of thousands of businesses?

Lets change that to 350,000 loved ones, TP. Fathers, mothers, Grandparents. How many have posted on here that they lost a loved one to the virus? Yes people die everyday, that is a fact. But dying in a car crash is very different from dying alone in an overcrowded hospital, as a result as something as simple as hugging another person. As for the economic effects, I believe we are living in a country that is only willing to give out a measly care package to the common person, while giving magnitudes more to big business. So direct your ire to those who make these lockdowns financially unbearable. There is no justification of allowing this many people, regardless of their age, to die.

 

[castleparker]

I'm having trouble posting the link to the article, but here is a quote from a study done by a Harvard Medical School researcher on how many years of life was lost in the US.
"Elledge has estimated that as of early October 2020, more than 2.5 million person-years of life have been lost due to the pandemic, in just the US alone.
This corresponds to an average loss of 13.25 person-years for each COVID-19-related death, he says.

This astounding cost will probably surprise many people, given the apparent public view that COVID-19 mainly affects elderly individuals and is of less concern to other age groups, writes Elledge.

In fact, the study showed that almost half of the potential years of life lost occurred among non-elderly populations."

 

[TP2000]

Lets change that to 350,000 loved ones, TP. Fathers, mothers, Grandparents. How many have posted on here that they lost a loved one to the virus? Yes people die everyday, that is a fact. But dying in a car crash is very different from dying alone in an overcrowded hospital, as a result as something as simple as hugging another person. As for the economic effects, I believe we are living in a country that is only willing to give out a measly care package to the common person, while giving magnitudes more to big business. So direct your ire to those who make these lockdowns financially unbearable. There is no justification of allowing this many people, regardless of their age, to die.

Do you wander around every day of your life with a black armband on because 8,000 loved ones die every day in America?

Because I don't. If I tried to be sad for the loved ones of that 84 year old woman who died after lunch today in the Vermont nursing home, I'd just go insane.

Then, if you extrapolate it out past the USA, you'd have to consider that a million humans die on this planet every single day. That's a lot of loved ones. I can only focus on the humans I know and personally love, not the loved ones I don't know dying today in Mongolia or Norway or Uganda.

 

[TP2000]

Might as well put this here, gang...

Happy new year!!! 2020 has been the craziest year I think any of us have ever seen. But at my party tonight with a fun group of friends I will toast this fun group of virtual friends here! Onward to 2021!!!

 

[castleparker]

I am not physically crying for every soul lost. What I am doing is abstaining from activity that would lead to needless deaths of other's loved ones, as well as my own. That's where the empathy comes into play. Realizing my actions in this pandemic could effect someone else's life. I know your retort will be similar to " well you shouldn't drive then, because car crashes..." Car crashes don't fill up ICUs. I can't make you change your mind on how dangerous this virus is, but at least you can understand my position.

 

[Disney Irish]

Huh? Your house is not on the market, and thus not registered in the MLS system, and yet three separate people have just wandered up to you and offered to buy your home?

Out of curiosity, where the heck do you spend the morning of New Year's Eve that three different people wander up and offer to buy your home that is not for sale?

I mean, I live in a large, older home in a desirable OC neighborhood with excellent schools and I get around with a busy social calendar these past two weeks, but that's not a topic of conversation that comes up over dinner or drinks. Especially when my house is not on the market and not in the MLS system.

You obviously haven't been in the real estate market in an area that is "hot" right now. I get calls every day by real estate agents looking for houses as they have more buyers than sellers, especially here in the Bay Area. They have the listing of the house due to the last time it was refinanced, so they have the ball park of how much the house is worth given the recent sales in the area. So they have buyers ready with money if I'm willing to sell, all I have to do is sign. All my neighbors are getting the same offers, again none are willing to sell.

Despite your claims of a mass exodus up here there are still more people coming in. This is because even though some long established companies are changing the address of their HQ, their workers are still here and are not requiring them to move. And are bringing more workers from all over to fill positions. Not only that but VCs are still funding new start-ups right here in the Bay Area. The Bay Area has had a house shortage for decades, and its not going to magically get resolved because "some" are leaving.

 

[lazyboy97o]

You obviously haven't been in the real estate market in an area that is "hot" right now. I get calls every day by real estate agents looking for houses as they have more buyers than sellers, especially here in the Bay Area. They have the listing of the house due to the last time it was refinanced, so they have the ball park of how much the house is worth given the recent sales in the area. So they have buyers ready with money if I'm willing to sell, all I have to do is sign. All my neighbors are getting the same offers, again none are willing to sell.

Despite your claims of a mass exodus up here there are still more people coming in. This is because even though some long established companies are changing the address of their HQ, their workers are still here and are not requiring them to move. And are bringing more workers from all over to fill positions. Not only that but VCs are still funding new start-ups right here in the Bay Area. The Bay Area has had a house shortage for decades, and its not going to magically get resolved because "some" are leaving.

But you’re also the weirdo who has access to the special U-Haul website. Of course I’m typing this in a house to which I had an offer in before it was listed.

 

[Disney Irish]

But you’re also the weirdo who has access to the special U-Haul website. Of course I’m typing this in a house to which I had an offer in before it was listed.

I know its as if there wasn't this thing called "off-market" buying happening.