Of the new releases, the biggest opening will come from Walt Disney Animation Studios’
Strange World, which opens in 4000 theaters. The old fashioned sci-fi adventure is about a family exploring a mysterious planet, and it features the voice talents of
Jake Gyllenhaal,
Dennis Quaid,
Jaboukie Young-White,
Gabrielle Union, and
Lucy Liu. The market is ripe for a new animated film, with no significant toons since July’s
DC League of Super-Pets, and a big animated title from the House of Mouse has practically become a new Thanksgiving tradition, with a Disney or Pixar animated release every November for the past decade barring 2020. At 75% on Rotten Tomatoes, the reviews suggest
Strange World is a worthy if not exemplary addition to the catalogue, but the box office looks to underwhelm.
Last year’s Thanksgiving weekend release
Encanto was the softest opener for Disney Animation in over a decade (barring
Raya and the Last Dragon which released deeper in the midst of the pandemic), taking in $27.2 million for the three-day and $40.5 million for the five-day. It finished with a domestic cume of $96.1 million, getting kneecapped by the Disney+ availability just a month after its release to hit the streamer in time for Christmas, a fate which might also befall
Strange World. Though the box office climate is healthier than it was a year ago, early numbers on
Strange World are underperforming
Encanto. Keep in mind
Encanto got a boost from a huge Latino turnout, making up nearly 60% of the audience in the opening weekend, though that’s certainly not the full story for why the numbers here are lagging.
Strange World may not make it past $20 million for the three-day and $30 million for the five-day, which would be unimpressive milestones even if they were met.
As for
Strange World’s international outlook, expect a softer showing than usual with a number of markets out of play. France is a key one, with Disney sending it straight to Disney+ as a way of bypassing the country’s lengthy release window mandates. We’ll never know how much money is left on the table theatrically here, but for what it’s worth,
Encanto grossed $24 million in France out of its $160 million international total. There are also many countries where Disney has decided not to submit the film to censors owing to a major LGBTQ character in the film. The most significant of these markets is China, where it may not have gotten a release anyway, but there is also the Middle East and much of West and East Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia (notable exceptions here include India and Thailand), not to mention the continued absence of Hollywood releases in Russia. Of these markets where
Encanto released but
Strange World is not,
Encanto made just under $25 million (and that’s not including the $24 million from France). The film’s production budget comes to $135 million, so the outlook here isn’t great.