Stock Market Woes

[OvertheHorizon]

So much of our money (401K, etc.) is in the hands of institutional investors who use those computer programs to buy and sell in ways that don't necessarily help individual investors, but that keep traders profitable since they "win" no matter whether stock is bought or sold.

Disney reported highest quarterly earnings, beat the estimate of what the dividend would be, and their stock promptly dropped 15%. All of this while they are on the verge of launching the biggest grossing film in Hollywood history, within a year of opening a new theme park that has 300 million people who can visit on a day trip, and lots of other blockbuster IP in the pipeline for the next year and a half. Allegedly the stock tanked on Iger's mention of lost subscribers for cable - but Disney has enough "skin in the game" of TV and video production to weather the collapse of cable. When the market is this fickle regarding a solid company with good profits and assets, one has to wonder why any individual investor would want to venture into such shark infested waters?

 

[PhotoDave219]

I'm not overly concerned…

When I say that only "unforeseen world events" could derail this project, needs to be a lot bigger than this.

 

[PhotoDave219]

So much of our money (401K, etc.) is in the hands of institutional investors who use those computer programs to buy and sell in ways that don't necessarily help individual investors, but that keep traders profitable since they "win" no matter whether stock is bought or sold.

Disney reported highest quarterly earnings, beat the estimate of what the dividend would be, and their stock promptly dropped 15%. All of this while they are on the verge of launching the biggest grossing film in Hollywood history, within a year of opening a new theme park that has 300 million people who can visit on a day trip, and lots of other blockbuster IP in the pipeline for the next year and a half. Allegedly the stock tanked on Iger's mention of lost subscribers for cable - but Disney has enough "skin in the game" of TV and video production to weather the collapse of cable. When the market is this fickle regarding a solid company with good profits and assets, one has to wonder why any individual investor would want to venture into such shark infested waters?

All the institutional investors heard was "ESPN lost subscribers." They immediately sold out at that point.

Wall Street is not interested in long term. They love short term profits.

 

[rob0519]

This is a scary time for small investors. Particularly those in or nearing retirement. The quality of their lives unfortunately go up and down with the market as pensions go away and people are left to manage a 401k. Yet, here is a thread about how a multi-billion dollar company may have to delay constructing a few rides at an amusement park. No matter what the market does, Disney will still be better off than most of the people who use their hard saved money to visit.

 

[George]

Even in this over dramatic Dow plunge, DIS is going up in price.

Did you know that you could buy shares of DHS directly? I hope they remember to change the ticker name after the name change since it still sells as MGM on the NYSE. Of course, DHSAiHFPoA (Disney's Hollywood Style Adventures in Hollywood Fun Park of Adventure) won't fit on the ticker.

 

[ford91exploder]

All the institutional investors heard was "ESPN lost subscribers." They immediately sold out at that point.

Wall Street is not interested in long term. They love short term profits.

The problem is with Ala Carte ESPN will continue to lose subscribers as will the Disney channel as one caters to hard core sports fans, The other caters to families with young children, $DIS does not have a lot of programming which interests a broad sector of viewership, A&E is the exception here.

That said yes the 'Street is addicted to short term profit.

 

[Mouse Trap]

All I know is my buy order for DIS @ $91 a share never went through this morning before it started to rip higher. The poor little guy can never win at this game...

 

[ctrlaltdel]

Seriously though if you're an investor just ride this thing out. This could last for a while but if you don't need you're money in the short term you'll very likely be fine. Trying to time the market is the worst thing to do.

 

[ctrlaltdel]

The problem is with Ala Carte ESPN will continue to lose subscribers as will the Disney channel as one caters to hard core sports fans, The other caters to families with young children, $DIS does not have a lot of programming which interests a broad sector of viewership, A&E is the exception here.

That said yes the 'Street is addicted to short term profit.

I won't disagree with you on the audience base being limited, but sports fans and families do make a large portion of the population.

 

[Rodan75]

I honestly think this may go in the opposite direction, if the concerns over ESPN keep dragging on $DIS, they could conceivably accelerated construction to bolster their Parks and Rec revenue . I saw a number of analyst-lite sites mention that possibility last week as the sell off was starting to take root. Maybe we'll get Star Wars by 2019 this way. =-)

 

[ford91exploder]

I won't disagree with you on the audience base being limited, but sports fans and families do make a large portion of the population.

Perhaps a third of the people I know are what I would consider 'hard core' ie willing to pay a premium price for internet/cable sports entertainment. Right now ESPN is being subsidized by all the people who get it in with the 'Disney' bundle which Disney strongarms into most basic packages.

With that coming to an end perhaps 20% or so will be willing to pony up the 15-25 subscription fee for a ESPN 'bundle' currently pretty much every cable household is paying $5-9 dollars for the ESPN content.

 

[ford91exploder]

I honestly think this may go in the opposite direction, if the concerns over ESPN keep dragging on $DIS, they could conceivably accelerated construction to bolster their Parks and Rec revenue . I saw a number of analyst-lite sites mention that possibility last week as the sell off was starting to take root. Maybe we'll get Star Wars by 2019 this way. =-)

It would be a good move in my view, The 'easy' money from Cable has deformed the Disney 'way'

 

[gmajew]

The next 45 min will be interesting as the day traders that bought low begin their sell offs.

 

[ctrlaltdel]

Perhaps a third of the people I know are what I would consider 'hard core' ie willing to pay a premium price for internet/cable sports entertainment. Right now ESPN is being subsidized by all the people who get it in with the 'Disney' bundle which Disney strongarms into most basic packages.

With that coming to an end perhaps 20% or so will be willing to pony up the 15-25 subscription fee for a ESPN 'bundle' currently pretty much every cable household is paying $5-9 dollars for the ESPN content.

Fair enough. I'm probably a bit biased since I'm one of those hard core sports fans. It'll be interesting to see Disney transition that's for sure.

 

[peter11435]

I won't disagree with you on the audience base being limited, but sports fans and families do make a large portion of the population.

Exactly. In the a la carte world Disney will be much better off than most. Every cable channel has a limited audience. But as you point out sports fans and families with children make up some of the largest audience bases there are. This is why current state, ESPN and Disney channel command such high premiums. Disney will likely come out ahead of nearly every cable media provider but it will still cause huge changes to the company's finances going forward. Fortunately for disney they have made and are making huge investments in their other segments.

 

[PhotoDave219]

The problem is with Ala Carte ESPN will continue to lose subscribers as will the Disney channel as one caters to hard core sports fans, The other caters to families with young children, $DIS does not have a lot of programming which interests a broad sector of viewership, A&E is the exception here.

That said yes the 'Street is addicted to short term profit.

The website "Seeking Alpha" has a story up -> Disney: The Fear is Overblown.

The drop across the cable & media sector seems like lemming mentality; people are selling just because the other guy is.

 

[ford91exploder]

The website "Seeking Alpha" has a story up -> Disney: The Fear is Overblown.

The drop across the cable & media sector seems like lemming mentality; people are selling just because the other guy is.

Wall St is all about the highest paid lemmings on earth when one lemming does something the rest of the herd follows, The problem is when they go over the cliff they take our retirements with them (along with the rest of the economy)

 

[ford91exploder]

forget dis, im worried aboot my own A**

As are the rest of us...

 

[FutureCEO]

I think the overall concepts of a Star Wars Land and Toy Story Land are safe. The art was presented at D23, but specifics were few. Leaves them room to work with. I could definitely see new attraction count take a hit in both lands.

Attractions count of two per land...if you cut it down to one that is still not much

 

[Darth Sidious]

It would take a 9/11 type event, God forbid, to derail the investment Disney is making in Florida.