Taking that further, we were there a week ago (11/6) and Rise was down in the morning. By afternoon the posted wait was 220 mins at one point, and may have peaked higher. It was slowly coming down and we hopped in at 140. It was odd because when we walked by at the 220 wait and again when we got in at 140, the actual end of the stand by line was not overflowing the queue. I was confused how the wait could be so long when you could hardly see anyone waiting outside. It was painfully obvious once we were in line. We'd wait 10 minutes to move 10 feet. Clearly the Lightning Lane was taking the vast majority of capacity and there were lots of LLs to get through thanks to the earlier downtime. Our wait turned out to be 206 minutes!
In summary, as always the reliability of the ride is the main problem. It's the biggest reason to purchase a Lightning Lane. I fall in the camp with those that find it ridiculous to pay for individual rides on top of the high ticket price, but if I had known it would be 3+ hours of waiting, then I'd have spent the money on Rise instead of Genie+. We actually missed out on 3 LLs because of our time in line (it was going to be tight to make one of them with a 140 min wait, but 206 plus the ride time killed it). We fortunately were able to ride everything anyway.
My advice if anyone cares: if Rise is a must-do for you, just pay for it (consider doing it instead of Genie+) or rope drop it. If you are okay skipping it if it has a bad day then you can risk waiting for a shorter afternoon/evening line and get more done at rope drop with other rides (we did Mickey/Minnie, Tower of Terror, and Rock 'n' Rollercoaster in the first 45 mins of the day). Or if you have more than one day at the park, then you should be fine at least one of the days as I don't think the reliability is a problem most days now?