News Star Wars Galaxy's Edge opening day reports - Disney's Hollywood Studios

[RobWDW1971]

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It's interesting to discuss, but why would food/beverages matter in the discussion of the SWGE success? People can only eat so much and that eating will steal from other venues throughout the park. You eat "lunch" at SWGE, you aren't eating "lunch" elsewhere in the park. You buy a drink here, you don't buy a drink there. Maybe with merch it's different, but it seems that most people have a budget they will spend and the dollars spent in SWGE are the dollars NOT spent elsewhere in the park. I don't see how there is any real gain. The only hope would be higher attendance (more people who need to eat/spend).

You're exactly right. There are multiple dynamics at play - total attendance, attendance mix/per cap (revenue/clicks), merch and F&B per caps, and hotel occupancy/ADR (not including DVC).

Driving merch and F&B per cap over millions of guests is challenging due to cannibalization and what you're talking about which in the restaurant industry is referred to as "share of stomach" or "share of wallet".

Harry Potter wands, light sabers, Star Wars cantina, etc are unique because they can get people to expand their wallet and spend more than historically and that can help to marginally improve merch/F&B per cap.

For an investment of SWGE’s scope, however, the key is incremental full paying guests as simply adding capacity for the same amount of guests is shifting spend and adding costs and even marginal per cap increases over an existing attendance base won’t ever be sufficient.

You need millions of new guests and per cap spending above historical levels.

 

[Jlasoon]

Seriously. If I were local, I'd be milking the low attendance as much as possible too.

I'm local, my passes expired in May. And after more than a decade of AP price increases, I didn't renew. My Disney Platinum pass reached $1k. Both my wife & I laughed, looked at each other & decided we'll just wait for the inevitable next recession. By the way my 2008 Premium AP renewal was $434 LOL.

This is what cheap credit does -----> Boom -----> Bust ------> Disney begging pass holders to renew. Happened in 2001, happened in 2008, will happen again.

 

[UNCgolf]

They won't learn. They will cut entertainment and cut some future projects because they will think that building out doesn't generate a good return. That's the lesson they will learn if Galaxy's Edge doesn't ultimately succeed.

This is exactly what I was going to say; good thing I read through the more recent posts before commenting.

I'm very afraid this is going to turn into Disney not even attempting to build big immersive areas (and to cuts across the board in the parks) because they'll look at Galaxy's Edge and go, "Waste of money; didn't work to bring in crowds. Spend less money on all future projects."

 

[monothingie]

This is exactly what I was going to say; good thing I read through the more recent posts before commenting.

I'm very afraid this is going to turn into Disney not even attempting to build big immersive areas (and to cuts across the board in the parks) because they'll look at Galaxy's Edge and go, "Waste of money; didn't work to bring in crowds. Spend less money on all future projects."

And cutbacks on projects in the hopper right now.
EPCOT

 

[RSoxNo1]

Another thing to throw into this bubbling stew of Star Wars mystery...

When Rise of the Resistance opens it will also not have Fastpass. And CM's have reported on another board that it will have slightly less hourly capacity than the 1,600-ish that the Falcon does.

Falcon has 1800 theoretical but is typically in the 1700-1750 range. You'd think Troy Porter would know this.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Very true. The ride system issues were almost up there with Gringotts.

I've been given more recent hourly #s for Hagrids. It's falling into the 1000-1200 range more consistently. Still not anywhere near it's THRC.

 

[marni1971]

Falcon has 1800 theoretical but is typically in the 1700-1750 range. You'd think Troy Porter would know this.

Interestingly the theoretical is quite a bit higher but they don’t think they’ll ever come close.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Interestingly the theoretical is quite a bit higher but they don’t think they’ll ever come close.

I should say, I'm basing Falcon's "theoretical" simply by what Chapek said publicly. Apologies if it's actually higher.

 

[danlb_2000]

Interestingly the theoretical is quite a bit higher but they don’t think they’ll ever come close.

What is causing it to fall short?

 

[RSoxNo1]

What is causing it to fall short?

Individual cabins going down and not hitting 47-48 second dispatches...

 

[Sir_Cliff]

This is exactly what I was going to say; good thing I read through the more recent posts before commenting.

I'm very afraid this is going to turn into Disney not even attempting to build big immersive areas (and to cuts across the board in the parks) because they'll look at Galaxy's Edge and go, "Waste of money; didn't work to bring in crowds. Spend less money on all future projects."

Honestly, I'd be happy if they stopped trying to build large 'immersive' lands around single IPs. The old model of more general themed lands in which different attractions (IP-based or not) could co-exist made and I still think makes far more sense than betting big on single movie franchises.

Regarding SWGE, my hunch is that we're seeing a deeper shift in the market for Disney's US parks that is just being revealed by the lukewarm response to the new land. Could be a perfect storm of aggressive price increases colliding with an impending economic slowdown or recession. Or not. It would be comforting, though, to think that the nickel and diming of guests was beginning to provoke some blowback. I am also interested to know how often a non-regular thinking about where to take the family on vacation looks at WDW, begins to read all of this info about pre-booking tiered fastpasses months in advance, date-specific pricing for tickets, special parties for extra cash, etc., begins to imagine the massive queues and grumpy kids, and then books a relaxing week in Hawaii for far less money. They've made it such a chore.

In terms of the land, logically I'd suspect the main reason it's not making up for any softness in the market was the decision to open without the main attraction. Even the mainstream media coverage of the openings seemed limp compared to the initial announcement of the lands and that had nothing to do with the lack of kinetic energy, background music, etc. I can understand why they opened when they did, but it was massive hubris to expect hoards of people to still rush in and throw whatever money they asked of them to experience the land knowing that the main draw still wasn't open. Then, presumably, Disney imagined they'd all come back and do it again a few months later.

 

[marni1971]

What is causing it to fall short?

From the THRC? Engineering spec compared to actual real life ops.

 

[TP2000]

Falcon has 1800 theoretical but is typically in the 1700-1750 range. You'd think Troy Porter would know this.

You'd think, wouldn't you?!

Falcon at the other park we don't talk about averaged 1385 an hour during its first 45 days of operation from May 31st to mid July, according to the Disney Parks Blog and a calculator. (1 Millionth rider was celebrated on July 15th)
https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/b...at-star-wars-galaxys-edge-in-disneyland-park/

I could see a 1700 riders per hour being achieved occasionally at the Falcon, but not consistently hour after hour, day after day. Which is why I say 1600-ish is probably best case scenario for an average hourly count over a 16 hour operating day.

Apparently the Resistance ride is slightly lower than Falcon, so I'm just guessing that it's 1500-ish as best case scenario over a 16 hour operating day.

But on a WDI PowerPoint three years ago when the WDI execs were trying to impress Bob Chapek in a Glendale conference room? Yes, I'm sure they used a wildly optimistic number like 1750 prominently in the PowerPoint, as if that hourly target could ever be achieved consistently for hours at a time for a full 16 hour operating day.

 

[TP2000]

My theory?

There’s a recession on deck and that fear, combined with the last couple of years of price hikes and upsell rollouts...has finally caused the consumer pause.

Just a hunch

American auto sales were up 10% in August '19 compared to August '18.

I use that as it's a big ticket item, often the most expensive thing someone owns besides their home, and to see a huge jump like that means the consumer is feeling very good about things. And it was a sales trend that stretched across all price points; from Honda up 20% and Toyota up 12% to BMW up 7% and Porsche up 14%. https://autoweek.com/article/car-news/new-car-sales-august-2019-winners-and-losers

American consumers aren't pausing when it comes to big ticket items. This year they are actually accelerating their purchases of big ticket items. The economy added another 130,000 jobs in August, unemployment remains at a 50 year low of 3.7%, and wages are rising at 3.2% while inflation remains at only 1.6%.

A WDW trip isn't as much as a car, but it's certainly spendy. We'll need to try another theory why folks are choosing to skip a WDW visit thus far.

I'm increasingly of the opinion that it's as simple as Star Wars Land in its current Chapek format just wasn't enough to overcome the traditional September doldrums on either coast.

 

[Higginbotham587]

I'm increasingly of the opinion that it's as simple as Star Wars Land in its current Chapek format just wasn't enough to overcome the traditional September doldrums on either coast.

And I’m baffled why anyone would think otherwise. One land and one ride would make somebody take a trip in September that they otherwise would not? Star Wars is a school age kid IP for sure and the ride is definitely for school age kids. Let’s rip kids out of school to go to Florida for one land and one ride? Doesn’t make much sense to me.

Now I went in August for a preview day because I could and didn’t want to wait for my bigger annual trip with the family. But I’m just I guess surprised that anyone would have thought there were tons of American families who wanted to take second month of school vacations to Disney. If there were September wouldn’t be such a slow month in the parks.

Wait for Christmas. I was there between Christmas and NYE last year and vowed never to visit again at that time. You could not even walk in the parks. Everything will be jammed and the extra capacity SWGE has will be welcome and filled.

Until then while I always believe Martin I find it hard to think that the DHS version has anyone at Disney really sweating yet. I don’t really care about DLR nearly as much and their local wild eyed loons rejecting a land that many Classicists on here told me was a bad fit for DLR neither surprises me nor meets my expectations.

 

[alphac2005]

American auto sales were up 10% in August '19 compared to August '18.

I use that as it's a big ticket item, often the most expensive thing someone owns besides their home, and to see a huge jump like that means the consumer is feeling very good about things. And it was a sales trend that stretched across all price points; from Honda up 20% and Toyota up 12% to BMW up 7% and Porsche up 14%. https://autoweek.com/article/car-news/new-car-sales-august-2019-winners-and-losers

American consumers aren't pausing when it comes to big ticket items. This year they are actually accelerating their purchases of big ticket items. The economy added another 130,000 jobs in August, unemployment remains at a 50 year low of 3.7%, and wages are rising at 3.2% while inflation remains at only 1.6%.

A WDW trip isn't as much as a car, but it's certainly spendy. We'll need to try another theory why folks are choosing to skip a WDW visit thus far.

I'm increasingly of the opinion that it's as simple as Star Wars Land in its current Chapek format just wasn't enough to overcome the traditional September doldrums on either coast.

My company has been going at it for more than two decades and citing the August sales numbers of vehicles isn't an accurate indicator of the overall strength of the economy. Manufacturers are increasing incentives including near historic high combinations of direct cash rebates and low to zero APR financing. The U.S. auto fleet is also at a historic high in age. People are holding onto vehicles much longer for a variety of reasons and many in the industry have anticipated that a combination of incentives and the fleet age would play into a possible pick-up. If we see a six or twelve month ramping up of vehicle sales, then there will be much more of definite consumer sentiment trend line. Speaking of which, U.S. consumer sentiment continues to decline when asked about today's economy and what they feel to be the upcoming state of economy. This is the lowest reading in three years.

On the economic side, you miss that U.S. manufacturing is now in contraction and inflation is a generally bogus metric today due to how it's calculated. The decline in the cost of fuel is one of the largest reasons that the metric remains low, but the inflation rate doesn't reflect real world increases in cost for the average American. As for the aforementioned, I do want to note that I have economists that work for my organization and outside economists with input as well.

Since my company is directly impacted by consumer spending, we've been clearly seeing a reduction in discretionary spending in the United States this year and many of our counterparts are seeing the same trend line. We're seeing other manufacturers with their most aggressive wholesale inventory incentives for retailers that we've seen in more than a decade. The trade war nonsense is impacting both B2B and B2C. The uncertainty is causing businesses to hold back on bringing inventory in and the consumer is starting to pull back in certain areas just in-case.

As for Disney, I think many can see that the company has finally reached a pricing ceiling. Galaxy's Edge certainly hasn't been able to move the needle, but there look to be many more fundamentals at play here.

 

[TP2000]

My company has been going at it for more than two decades and citing the August sales numbers of vehicles isn't an accurate indicator of the overall strength of the economy.

Certainly. When you have a $20 Trillion dollar economy like the US has, auto sales are just one of many factors.

But for this discussion, where some folks are thinking that US consumers have suddenly closed their wallets this summer which explains why the 1600 riders per hour Millennium Falcon ride rarely has more than a 45 minute wait on either coast, the simple fact that automotive sales increased by 10% in August, 2019 over August, 2018 seems a pretty good indicator that big ticket items are still enjoying a robust marketplace of willing consumers.

I know there's a certain chunk of the population hoping and wishing there will be a full-blown recession in 2020, but right now as the summer of '19 morphs into the fall, American consumers are still buying big ticket items at a healthy clip.

And vacations and leisure time are big ticket items for many Americans. Even Disney's recent earnings calls state that per-customer spending is up at the parks, while attendance remains flat or lower.

Cedar Fair announced a couple days ago that it's attendance is up 6% and spending increased 8% at its parks this summer. They just banked a record $1.12 Billion in profit.

Going up! Cedar Fair reports record revenues

SANDUSKY — Cedar Fair LP said Thursday the company collected record revenues at its chain of 11 amusement parks and five water parks through the first ...

www.toledoblade.com

The economic story in September, 2020 might be different, but we'll need to wait a year for that.

 

[TP2000]

I don’t really care about DLR nearly as much and their local wild eyed loons rejecting a land that many Classicists on here told me was a bad fit for DLR neither surprises me nor meets my expectations.

Ha! Love that sentiment! Wild eyed loons.

As you'll note from my posts here over the last few years, I was one of the defenders of Star Wars Land in Anaheim. I thought, and still think, that it's placement in Disneyland is good for the park. The aesthetic improvements it brought to the Rivers of America, the Disneyland Railroad and Big Thunder Trail are fantastic! I think Walt would love it.

It's also fascinating how they made it work at DHS, to a different degree of success. I have no problem with it in either park.

I just wonder how long it will be until they re-activate the virtual queueing system for either park. They obviously thought they'd need to be using that consistently from Day One, but in both parks it only lasted half a day and is now in mothballs. Do they need it this Christmas? Or ever again? I'll look forward to seeing how that works!

 

[BrianLo]

You'd think, wouldn't you?!

Falcon at the other park we don't talk about averaged 1385 an hour during its first 45 days of operation from May 31st to mid July, according to the Disney Parks Blog and a calculator. (1 Millionth rider was celebrated on July 15th)
https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/b...at-star-wars-galaxys-edge-in-disneyland-park/

I could see a 1700 riders per hour being achieved occasionally at the Falcon, but not consistently hour after hour, day after day. Which is why I say 1600-ish is probably best case scenario for an average hourly count over a 16 hour operating day.

Apparently the Resistance ride is slightly lower than Falcon, so I'm just guessing that it's 1500-ish as best case scenario over a 16 hour operating day.

But on a WDI PowerPoint three years ago when the WDI execs were trying to impress Bob Chapek in a Glendale conference room? Yes, I'm sure they used a wildly optimistic number like 1750 prominently in the PowerPoint, as if that hourly target could ever be achieved consistently for hours at a time for a full 16 hour operating day.

I timed dispatches (the single rider line is the best place to get enough data to somewhat estimate this).

I'm in agreement with @marni1971 and @RSoxNo1, the ride is running around 1750ish.


Which of course is way better than SDMT and FOP (without FP to boot). Millennium Falcon cannot really be compared to other rides at WDW until we have FP+, once that occurs it is similar to 3 track/theatre TSMM or Soaring.

 

[mikejs78]

Certainly. When you have a $20 Trillion dollar economy like the US has, auto sales are just one of many factors.

But for this discussion, where some folks are thinking that US consumers have suddenly closed their wallets this summer which explains why the 1600 riders per hour Millennium Falcon ride rarely has more than a 45 minute wait on either coast, the simple fact that automotive sales increased by 10% in August, 2019 over August, 2018 seems a pretty good indicator that big ticket items are still enjoying a robust marketplace of willing consumers.

I know there's a certain chunk of the population hoping and wishing there will be a full-blown recession in 2020, but right now as the summer of '19 morphs into the fall, American consumers are still buying big ticket items at a healthy clip.

And vacations and leisure time are big ticket items for many Americans. Even Disney's recent earnings calls state that per-customer spending is up at the parks, while attendance remains flat or lower.

Cedar Fair announced a couple days ago that it's attendance is up 6% and spending increased 8% at its parks this summer. They just banked a record $1.12 Billion in profit.

Going up! Cedar Fair reports record revenues

SANDUSKY — Cedar Fair LP said Thursday the company collected record revenues at its chain of 11 amusement parks and five water parks through the first ...

www.toledoblade.com

The economic story in September, 2020 might be different, but we'll need to wait a year for that.

Let me be clear - I am not saying that there is a recession going on or that it is what's responsible for the lack of attendance. I'm just speculating as to why the parks are dead. It's been made known here by several people that it isn't just WDW that is having attendance problems, but that Uni is as well. Galaxy's Edge cant be responsible for that, unless people are so afraid that it's going to be jammed that they are purposefully staying away from all of Orlando.