News Star Wars Galaxy's Edge Disney's Hollywood Studios opening date

lentesta

lentesta

Premium Member
winstongator said:
I have a much more limited dataset (my own experience plus what TP publishes), but there was one day (Jan 6, 19) when there were high waits at Kilimanjaro Safaris early, as mentioned in the volatility post. My explanation was Everest being down. The family behind me in line had a FP for Everest that changed to a flex-FP. It doesn't work for FoP, so say half goes to the Safari, and half to Dino. That goes to the FP line, not standby. If all that happened in an hour, you'd have no capacity left for standby and those waits could spike. However, that is something Disney would know as it's happening.
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Unplanned ride stoppages is the primary reason Disney's doing same-day FP drops, so this makes sense.

winstongator said:
Do you have more user submitted datapoint than the few dots shown? I've looked for some of my submitted times and didn't see them.
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They should all be in the data files. If you don't see them there, they were filtered out for some reason. Let me know an example time and date, and I'll ask the stats team to look.

winstongator said:
I started looking at this when trying to figure out what would happen with Galaxy's Edge crowd & wait wise. Not using FP is a great operational decision. Consider a capacity of 1800/hr. A 3 hr, no fp+ line, has 5400 people in it. A 3 hr standby line with FP+ taking 2/3rds of capacity only holds 1800. That's 3600 people in line that you'd need to entertain otherwise. After RoTR opens and they get to 2hr lines for each (assuming still no FP), that's 7200 people in line. That's 2.5M guests per year, or a huge attendance increase for DHS. To answer the question @danheaton posed to you of 'where will the Galaxy Edge crowds go?', I'd propose, many of them will be in the standby lines! The other question I had a guess for: 'where will the GE crowds eat?', I say Epcot. Skyliner over for more dining options.
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That's exactly the math I'd use to explain why there'll be no FP.

As for where they'll eat, I think the highest-rated place in DHS right now is the Starbucks(?). I don't think there's enough dining options there for those kinds of crowds. I'd expect Epcot and the Epcot resorts, plus Disney Springs, to get a lot of traffic.
 
RSoxNo1

RSoxNo1

Well-Known Member
lentesta said:
As for where they'll eat, I think the highest-rated place in DHS right now is the Starbucks(?). I don't think there's enough dining options there for those kinds of crowds. I'd expect Epcot and the Epcot resorts, plus Disney Springs, to get a lot of traffic.
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If only they had a massive pizza place that could serve actual pizza instead of ketchup and cheese on a sea sponge.
 
monothingie

monothingie

Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.
Premium Member
Genuine question here, is Docking bay 7 food and cargo a qs or ts? Disney Food blog uses the ambiguous term sit down, but others here have said qs. Any clarification?
 
ThistleMae

ThistleMae

Well-Known Member
monothingie said:
Genuine question here, is Docking bay 7 food and cargo a qs or ts? Disney Food blog uses the ambiguous term sit down, but others here have said qs. Any clarification?
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From everything I've read it's CS only...and I've been following mulitple threads and articles on this topic. You do sit down at CS, it's just you don't get waited on at your table, you have to go up to a counter.
 
Next Big Thing

Next Big Thing

Well-Known Member
lentesta said:
On a day-to-day basis, FoP has some of the longest average lines in WDW. Its popularity has endured far longer than any new ride Disney has opened in recent memory. If you want a model for what the Galaxy's Edge attraction wait times will look like, and for how long there'll be crowds, Flight of Passage is it.

That said, there's some evidence that recent posted wait times at the Animal Kingdom are being overstated at historically high levels. That's probably another thread, though.
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What about SDMT though? MK has way more rides and the popularity is still incredibly high for that ride.
 
jt04

jt04

Well-Known Member
DAK needs a new E Ticket in a new land. That would help. But they are probably waiting to see the impact of GE on the numbers.
 
stretchsje

stretchsje

Well-Known Member
I see @lentesta is already active in this thread, but on the latest Disney Dish, he and Jim Hill get into when Rise of the Resistance will open. The rumors of it opening a couple months after SW:GE's debut on the west coast are described by Jim to be optimistic because workers are being reallocated to make sure Smuggler's Run opens without a hitch. Given the benefit of going second and learning from Disneyland's mistakes, a smaller delay (relative to the opening of SW:GE) and smoother debut is anticipated in Orlando.

What else? Delays on RotR could be due to the ride vehicles and the complex sequences they are expected to perform. And the earlier-than-anticipated openings could be driven by the fiscal calendar, which makes sense (need to show growth and Toy Story Land didn't do it).

There was more, but these are the points that stood out to me. Good show, as always.
 
winstongator

winstongator

Well-Known Member
lentesta said:
Unplanned ride stoppages is the primary reason Disney's doing same-day FP drops, so this makes sense.



They should all be in the data files. If you don't see them there, they were filtered out for some reason. Let me know an example time and date, and I'll ask the stats team to look.



That's exactly the math I'd use to explain why there'll be no FP.

As for where they'll eat, I think the highest-rated place in DHS right now is the Starbucks(?). I don't think there's enough dining options there for those kinds of crowds. I'd expect Epcot and the Epcot resorts, plus Disney Springs, to get a lot of traffic.
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Len, I looked at your data again and have to bump Disney’s grade up a notch. The standard deviation of the error is 10 minutes, which is not that bad. There are a lot of times it’s wildly off, but that is probably due to something happening - unexpected ride closures and reopenings. I want to histogram the wait time error (actual wait - posted) to get a better picture. On my iPad now so that won’t happen (soon) and I might not be able to do it with such a large dataset in excel or sheets, might be python for this. I’d also like to plot wait time error vs wait time - are they more accurate at shorter or longer waits. I’d imagine some bias at very short waits - they don’t usually post zero, and often 10-15 is actually less than 5 and just the time to walk through the queue.

One thing that was interesting in the MK the other day is the way a ride closure affects other rides. I had a Bug Thunder Mountain FP, and the FP line was well into the walkway area. I inquired and splash had just gone down and many of the people with FP for that just shifted over to Thunder. One or the other ride trying to accommodate an hours worth of fp+ from both would be difficult if not impossible. Seemingly small differences in allocation of capacity to FP can have a big impact on that: 75% to FP means a two on one is overwhelmed by 50%, but 50% would be easier to handle two attractions worth.
 
lentesta

lentesta

Premium Member
winstongator said:
Len, I looked at your data again and have to bump Disney’s grade up a notch. The standard deviation of the error is 10 minutes, which is not that bad. There are a lot of times it’s wildly off, but that is probably due to something happening - unexpected ride closures and reopenings. I want to histogram the wait time error (actual wait - posted) to get a better picture. On my iPad now so that won’t happen (soon) and I might not be able to do it with such a large dataset in excel or sheets, might be python for this. I’d also like to plot wait time error vs wait time - are they more accurate at shorter or longer waits. I’d imagine some bias at very short waits - they don’t usually post zero, and often 10-15 is actually less than 5 and just the time to walk through the queue.

One thing that was interesting in the MK the other day is the way a ride closure affects other rides. I had a Bug Thunder Mountain FP, and the FP line was well into the walkway area. I inquired and splash had just gone down and many of the people with FP for that just shifted over to Thunder. One or the other ride trying to accommodate an hours worth of fp+ from both would be difficult if not impossible. Seemingly small differences in allocation of capacity to FP can have a big impact on that: 75% to FP means a two on one is overwhelmed by 50%, but 50% would be easier to handle two attractions worth.
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Cool. Let me know what you come up with.
 

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