So Can We Finally Call Cars 2 A Flop

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wm49rs

A naughty bit o' crumpet
Premium Member
Well it is simple when you compare the sequel's performance to the original, the difference in ticket prices, and any difference in the cost of the budgets. Domestically cars 2 has made $22.5 million less at this point then cars, and the gap is widening by $1 million + each weekday and $2 or $3 million each weekend day. The average ticket price has increased $1.31 since cars was released in 2006. The production budget is $80 million more for cars 2 then cars, with no clue on what the difference for the print and ad budgets is.

But we're not talking about the first movie, the discussion is whether or not Cars 2 is a flop. And considering all of the data is not in yet, perhaps holding off judgement, as difficult as that may be around here, is the best course to take. At least, at the very least, until it is no longer in the theatres.....
 

stlbobby

Well-Known Member
Simply adding the numbers provided and comparing it to the total provided is not mincing numbers, it is called auditing.

Well it is simple when you compare the sequel's performance to the original, the difference in ticket prices, and any difference in the cost of the budgets. Domestically cars 2 has made $22.5 million less at this point then cars, and the gap is widening by $1 million + each weekday and $2 or $3 million each weekend day. The average ticket price has increased $1.31 since cars was released in 2006. The production budget is $80 million more for cars 2 then cars, with no clue on what the difference for the print and ad budgets is.

Clearly I was mistaken when I accused you of mincing numbers.
 

stlbobby

Well-Known Member
This is from the article:

But after a bunch of theater chains declared bankruptcy in the early 2000s, these frontloaded deals started to fall out of fashion, says Doug Stone with BoxOfficeAnalyst.com.


This was the part you referenced earlier and this is what I was saying is wrong. It is not the reality. I don't care what one guy from a web-site says.

The article itself goes on to state.

The percentage of revenues that the exhibitor takes in depends on the individual contract for that film — which in turn depends on how much muscle the distributor has, according to Stone.


I'm quoting this from your post. I posted it previously. Disney/Pixar is a big player with a known quantity. They demand the biggest deals.

According to the book The Hollywood Economist by Edward Jay Epstein, studios take in about 40 percent of the revenue from overseas release — and after expenses, they're lucky if they take in 15 percent of that number.

I don't know this book, or the author, but this is where the math gets really fuzzy. The studios and distributors will manipulate numbers to make even Potter movies look like they lost money, that's according to your original source. I know there are greater expenses in overseas distribution, but the studios are not losing the kinds of money sited here.

The distributor can get up to 60%, they don't get 90% of the haul.

Disney is the distributor and the studio for Cars 2. They are different divisions, Buena Vista and Pixar, but it is all the same company. They aren't splitting profits.

Also, most of the ticket revenue is for large films. There is no way that theaters will keep 45- 50% of ticket revenue they are only keeping 10% on 90% of their ticket revenue.

I don't even know what you are trying to say.

Simply adding the numbers provided and comparing it to the total provided is not mincing numbers, it is called auditing.

Sarcasm aside you are not "auditing" anything. You are making massive assumptions about revenue streams to manipulate a supposition you originally posed as a question.

The bottom line is there are simple industry standards on how a film is judged. I've explained them before, in strict box office numbers there are hard benchmarks and how and when a movie reaches it's production budget.

Some films will be given a greater consideration for merchandising and other revenue streams. Cars 2 is one of those films, but even without ancillary revenue Cars 2 has easily topped it's budget worldwide. It will probably get close to it domestically.

Was Disney looking for more? Yes, but it isn't a flop.
 

stlbobby

Well-Known Member
After the weekend, Cars 2 has made 17 million less domestically than Cars after 24 days, without any sign that it is going to make more than 2 million per day. Along with that, the budget is atleast 80 million more than Cars. It seems that Disney may barely break even.

So can we finally call Cars 2 a flop?

After three weeks Cars 2 ranks:

170 All Time Domestic Box Office
230 Worldwide Domestic Box Office
32 Animated Movie
27 Computer Animated Movie
4 Biggest Opening Weekend in June
3 Rated G Opening Weekend

Several of these numbers will improve as Cars 2 lingers through the summer.

Clearly this film is not a flop.

If you still insist on calling it a flop then apparently only 169 movies have ever not flopped.
 

flavious27

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
But we're not talking about the first movie, the discussion is whether or not Cars 2 is a flop. And considering all of the data is not in yet, perhaps holding off judgement, as difficult as that may be around here, is the best course to take. At least, at the very least, until it is no longer in the theatres.....

Sequels and prequels are going to be judged against the movies that preceded them, those prior movies set the bar for future movies in the same franchise.
 

wm49rs

A naughty bit o' crumpet
Premium Member
Sequels and prequels are going to be judged against the movies that preceded them, those prior movies set the bar for future movies in the same franchise.

No, they're simply part of the line and are used as an arbitrary barometer to gauge the success of the current incarnation, or vice versa. No one would measure TRON: Legacy against its predecessor, so it's not an universal axiom. Cars 2 is in many ways different than the original. So let the prattle subside until all of the monies have been counted.....
 

stlbobby

Well-Known Member
Sequels and prequels are going to be judged against the movies that preceded them, those prior movies set the bar for future movies in the same franchise.

One, this isn't true in the industry or in the eye of the public.

Two, it isn't the argument you've been making for almost 50 posts. You're changing the argument now because you're previous points didn't hold water.
 

flavious27

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Also, most of the ticket revenue is for large films. There is no way that theaters will keep 45- 50% of ticket revenue they are only keeping 10% on 90% of their ticket revenue.

I don't even know what you are trying to say.

Well read this comment and then you will.

The distributor can get up to 60%, they don't get 90% of the haul.

Disney is the distributor and the studio for Cars 2. They are different divisions, Buena Vista and Pixar, but it is all the same company. They aren't splitting profits.

No matter how large the distributor and or movie is, the theaters are not giving away 90% of 90% of the movies they show; 90% of the ticket revenues of a theater come from large distributors and or are for large movies. There is no way that theaters are able to send 50 - 55% of ticket revenues back to the distributors if the front loaded deals are still in place, the math just does not support it.
 

stlbobby

Well-Known Member
Sequels and prequels are going to be judged against the movies that preceded them, those prior movies set the bar for future movies in the same franchise.

But since you went down this road. Here is a quick list of "flops" under your new criteria:

The Empire Strikes Back
Return of the Jedi
Godfather II
Godfather III
Harry Potter 2
HP 3
HP 4
HP 5
HP 6
HP 7
HP 8 - although this may still surpass the original
Rocky 2
Rocky 5
Rocky Balboa
Alien 3
Alien Resurrection
Alien vs Predator - Requiem
Back to the Future Part II
Back to the Future Part III
Barbershop 2
Beauty Shop
Beverly Hills Cop 2
Beverly Hills Cop 3
Friday the 13th part 2
F 13 3
F 13 4
F 13 5
F 13 6
F 13 7
F 13 8
F 13 9
Jason X
Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom
Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade - ironically Crystal Skull was the only non-flop
Jaws 2
Jaws 3-D
Jaws IV - the Revenge
Jurassic Park: Lost world
Jurassic Park III

Granted of few of these were genuine flops, usually the last in the line, but many times the second and third films make less, even half, than the original, yet the studios continue to produce sequels. I guess they saw it differently.
 

stlbobby

Well-Known Member
Well read this comment and then you will.



No matter how large the distributor and or movie is, the theaters are not giving away 90% of 90% of the movies they show; 90% of the ticket revenues of a theater come from large distributors and or are for large movies. There is no way that theaters are able to send 50 - 55% of ticket revenues back to the distributors if the front loaded deals are still in place, the math just does not support it.

You need to read these comments because they make no sense. You are literally rambling. People are accused of rambling on boards all the time, but it is actually happening.
 

stlbobby

Well-Known Member
flavious27,

Answer this simple question. How much does Cars 2 have to earn to not be a flop?

You said in earlier posts that making a profit was the standard and you also sited $333 million as the number Cars 2 needs to break even.

Is $333 million the number?
 

flavious27

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
No, they're simply part of the line and are used as an arbitrary barometer to gauge the success of the current incarnation, or vice versa. No one would measure TRON: Legacy against its predecessor, so it's not an universal axiom. Cars 2 is in many ways different than the original. So let the prattle subside until all of the monies have been counted.....

No one is going to judge movies that are 2 or 3 decades apart in releases, but they will when the movies are 5 years apart. Disney judges films based on the performance of others in the same franchise, this is why they gave up on narnia.

Cars 2 is different from cars, but the selling point of the movie is the characters from the original. Look at what the premise is, lightning mcqueen competes internationally and mader is thought to be a spy. A movie about a nascar vehicle racing open wheel vehicles and a redneck thought to be a spy would be greenlite with a $200 million budget.

One, this isn't true in the industry or in the eye of the public.

Two, it isn't the argument you've been making for almost 50 posts. You're changing the argument now because you're previous points didn't hold water.

One, yes it is. There is no question that the public judges sequels to the preceding movie. Movie studios also judge sequels' performance to the proceeding film, this is one of main factors in approving future movies in the same franchise. If Spiderman 2 made $200 or $300 million less than Spiderman, would Columbia have approved Spiderman 3? Or would POTC: AWE had been approved with a larger budget if DMC had made much less than BP?

Second, this is my original post:

After the weekend, Cars 2 has made 17 million less domestically than Cars after 24 days, without any sign that it is going to make more than 2 million per day. Along with that, the budget is atleast 80 million more than Cars. It seems that Disney may barely break even.

So can we finally call Cars 2 a flop?

The whole point of me starting this thread was to state that Cars 2 is a flop when compared to the original. All of the comments I have made after post #1 is to support that.

flavious27,

Answer this simple question. How much does Cars 2 have to earn to not be a flop?

You said in earlier posts that making a profit was the standard and you also sited $333 million as the number Cars 2 needs to break even.

Is $333 million the number?

$333 million would be the break even point, without knowing what the P&A budgets were. But with the larger budget, Cars 2 would need to make $594 million to have the same profit as Cars. There isn't going be anyway that Cars 2 will earn another $261 million.
 

stlbobby

Well-Known Member
$333 million would be the break even point, without knowing what the P&A budgets were. But with the larger budget, Cars 2 would need to make $594 million to have the same profit as Cars. There isn't going be anyway that Cars 2 will earn another $261 million.

So the only way Cars 2 can not be a flop is to become the 63 most profitable film ever?

Number 63 just to get out of flop territory? What would it have to do to actually be a success? Or a blockbuster?

This is a ridiculous. No one inside Disney or out expected this film to make almost $600 million.

By your calculations Avatar 2 would have to make something like $5 billion just to not flop.

For some reason you are biased against this film and you are setting unrealistic expectations. You then disingenuously post a "question" on a Disney board, where you know most people will tend to favour Disney, just so you espouse your silly theory. You aren't looking for an intelligent discussion. You are just wanting to irritate people.

I'm done.
 

wm49rs

A naughty bit o' crumpet
Premium Member
No one is going to judge movies that are 2 or 3 decades apart in releases, but they will when the movies are 5 years apart. Disney judges films based on the performance of others in the same franchise, this is why they gave up on narnia.

Curious, you didn't quantify which sequels or prequels qualified as comparisons in your previous statement. I suppose when you want the facts to fit your needs and all that.

And unfortunately no, nothing can be catergorized until all of the monies have been counted. That fact still remains.
 

flavious27

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
So the only way Cars 2 can not be a flop is to become the 63 most profitable film ever?

Number 63 just to get out of flop territory? What would it have to do to actually be a success? Or a blockbuster?

This is a ridiculous. No one inside Disney or out expected this film to make almost $600 million.

By your calculations Avatar 2 would have to make something like $5 billion just to not flop.

For some reason you are biased against this film and you are setting unrealistic expectations. You then disingenuously post a "question" on a Disney board, where you know most people will tend to favour Disney, just so you espouse your silly theory. You aren't looking for an intelligent discussion. You are just wanting to irritate people.

I'm done.

If Disney didn't think it would outperform cars, it wouldn't have given cars 2 a budget that was 66% higher. If they are going to make less, why spend more? That is what happened with Prince Caspian, they spent much more and got much less back. If they make a third Cars, god knows how much worse that will perform or if anyone outside of merchandising will approve it.

By my calculations? My calculations are just on the movies making the same amount of profit with an increased budget. If Avatar 2's budget was 1.3 billion, yeah it would need to bring in 5 billion in ticket sales to equal the same amount of profit as the first one. If Cameron raised the budget by 1/3, a2 would just need like 17 mil more in revenue to get the same profit.

I am biased with disney and pixar lowering their standards so they can sell more merchandise. I also know I am not in the minority with this opinion, those that are fans of disney watch the movies for a good story. The movies aren't suppose to be 112 minutes commercials, they are suppose to be 112 minutes of entertainment worth 112 minutes of people's time.

Those that I irate with facts are the ones that stick their fingers in their ears and scream out la la la la la la. Cars 2 has hated by the critics and the ticket revenues show that the fans agreed.
 

WildcatDen

Well-Known Member
I am biased with disney and pixar lowering their standards so they can sell more merchandise. I also know I am not in the minority with this opinion,

I pictured you typing your response in front of a mirror doing your best impression of Stuart Smalley. . .
 
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