Restaurant capacity and live entertainment restrictions are currently limiting Walt Disney World theme park attendance according to Bob Chapek

[Casper Gutman]

Here's a thread from an attraction CM on the WDW subreddit recently. Supposedly they haven't changed their methodologies to calculating wait times.

It's a good read:

I mean… this isn’t a defense. They say they’ve always inflated the wait times. But until Genie+, those inflated wait times weren’t encouraging guests to purchase a line-skipping product. Now they are. That change makes all the difference. It makes intentionally inflating wait times something akin to fraud.

 

[lentesta]

Has anyone yet discussed that Disney is (almost certainly) intentionally inflating their wait times so guests feel they've gotten their value out of Genie+... as well as driving guests to purchase the service? I'm pretty darn confident on this one. How long can they keep that up before the shenanigans are figured out?

We (touringplans) can‘t convince ourselves this is happening. Looking forward to your analysis.

 

[James Alucobond]

I mean… this isn’t a defense. They say they’ve always inflated the wait times. But until Genie+, those inflated wait times weren’t encouraging guests to purchase a line-skipping product. Now they are. That change makes all the difference. It makes intentionally inflating wait times something akin to fraud.

While I agree that there is now an incentive for them to inflate times, I don't know that erring on the side of the longest potential wait based on current conditions would amount to fraud. Countless variables are at play here, and as long as they're not presenting a time outside the standard range based on current line length and Lightning Lane reservations, I don't think it's fraudulent to post, say, the extreme end of the range rather than the mean or median wait at that moment. It's never presented as an average.

 

[UNCgolf]

While I agree that there is now an incentive for them to inflate times, I don't know that erring on the side of the longest potential wait based on current conditions would amount to fraud. Countless variables are at play here, and as long as they're not presenting a time outside the standard range based on current line length and Lightning Lane reservations, I don't think it's fraudulent to post, say, the extreme end of the range rather than the mean or median wait at that moment. It's never presented as an average.

It would be nearly impossible to prove fraud even if they actually were doing it intentionally. There'd have to be some kind of smoking gun email thread, presentation, etc. where they discuss how they're going to improve Genie+ sales by artificially inflating wait times.

Otherwise, there are too many other reasons the times could be inflated at any given moment.

 

[Casper Gutman]

It would be nearly impossible to prove fraud even if they actually were doing it intentionally. There'd have to be some kind of smoking gun email thread, presentation, etc. where they discuss how they're going to improve Genie+ sales by artificially inflating wait times.

Otherwise, there are too many other reasons the times could be inflated at any given moment.

Yup. It’s almost certainly not legal fraud (hence, I said “akin to fraud”). It’s merely deceptive, unethical, and exploitative.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

It would be nearly impossible to prove fraud even if they actually were doing it intentionally. There'd have to be some kind of smoking gun email thread, presentation, etc. where they discuss how they're going to improve Genie+ sales by artificially inflating wait times.

Otherwise, there are too many other reasons the times could be inflated at any given moment.

Maybe this is naive, but I do think a concerted strategy to elevate wait times to sell Genie+ might be a bridge too far. I'm not sure if it would necessarily be illegal, but Disney being exposed doing something like that would be a huge hit to their reputation and it's not like queues aren't long anyway.

As people have mentioned, they've always erred on over rather than under estimating wait times for non-sinister reasons.

 

[VelocityRaptor]

Why do t they use the red tags anymore. Wouldn’t that help provide accurate times?

 

[UNCgolf]

Maybe this is naive, but I do think a concerted strategy to elevate wait times to sell Genie+ might be a bridge too far. I'm not sure if it would necessarily be illegal, but Disney being exposed doing something like that would be a huge hit to their reputation and it's not like queues aren't long anyway.

As people have mentioned, they've always erred on over rather than under estimating wait times for non-sinister reasons.

Oh, I'm not suggesting they're actually doing it. That was just a hypothetical scenario.

In thinking about it more, I'm not sure it would be illegal regardless of any smoking gun evidence. Law school was years ago, but anyone who purchased an ILL would still be getting exactly what they paid for -- access to a special queue at the specified return time. If someone purchased one and there happened to be no standby wait at all at their return time (incredibly unlikely, but for the sake of argument) they wouldn't be entitled to a refund.

I've always assumed Disney inflates wait times for guest satisfaction purposes (at least partially).

 

[James Alucobond]

Yup. It’s almost certainly not legal fraud (hence, I said “akin to fraud”). It’s merely deceptive, unethical, and exploitative.

Perhaps, but this isn't necessarily so. You assume the motive is malicious when that's only one possibility. There are many reasons why you might lean toward one extreme end of the potential range rather than publishing alternatives. Often, the alternatives simply aren't helpful, so you have to make a choice about what information is best to share to aid in the customer's decision-making process without overwhelming them with additional statistical distractions.

Consider a cost estimator that aggregates prices from various service providers ... Publishing the complete range might be unhelpful because the high end and low end may be too far apart to give the user a meaningful idea of an appropriate price, but the mean could be equally unhelpful because it might produce massive sticker shock if you encounter the high end or seem completely out of whack if you encounter the low end.

 

[Entertainment Is Magic]

BS
There are HUNDREDS of entertainment cast members (myself included) who are STILL waiting for a return to work phone call almost 2 years into the pandemic.
NO reason why the guests cannot enjoy:
Hoop-Dee-Doo Revue
Voyage of the Little Mermaid
Nemo (whatever form it takes)
Fantasmic!
Citizens of Hollywood and Main Street

But Chapek realized that guests will pay more and get less. Why else would he NOT bring back all of these shows and more? They CAN be done safely for both the cast member and guests, but corporate greed has kept them shuttered.
And until the guests revolt or stop coming, why should they change?
Sad.
I will keep spending my time and money at Universal, Sea World, and Busch who not only managed to bring back all of their shows, but added more.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I will keep spending my time and money at Universal, Sea World, and Busch who not only managed to bring back all of their shows, but added more.

That’s because Disney is a business and Universal is a non-profit.... oh wait

 

[prberk]

Still no comparatively good reason (as in comparing to other dining facility safety) that Hoop-De-Doo Revue is not back. A classic and one of the best-themed shows or dinners on WDW property. Of, course it came from the early days, when theming was great and it did not need a movie tie-in. Just a great throwback to vaudeville and medicine shows. Love it.

Same for the luau: we have a richly themed Hawaiian resort with a luau cove, outdoors even, but no luau.

 

[lentesta]

Why do t they use the red tags anymore. Wouldn’t that help provide accurate times?

I think they switched to RFID sensors (for MagicBands) in the lines.

 

[TransportationGuy]

Why do t they use the red tags anymore. Wouldn’t that help provide accurate times?

They weren’t especially accurate either. If you’re holding a red tag, then a tour group of 400 walks in right behind you, they’ll likely be prior to the next red tag. This would likely result in the guests following the tour group experiencing a wait longer than you (the last red card to go through) have then posted.

 

[MisterPenguin]

We (touringplans) can‘t convince ourselves this is happening. Looking forward to your analysis.

Thanks, Len!

 

[Brian]

Thanks!

They're proud that they've replaced a portion of their workforce with a ****ty app so they can show Wall Street they've cut labor costs. I don't have the words...

Don't worry, they have some virtue signaling to make up for it.

 

[WDW Pro]

We (touringplans) can‘t convince ourselves this is happening. Looking forward to your analysis.

Here's what we found on a recent test:

Haunted Mansion:
65 Minute Posted Wait Time, 41 Minute Actual Wait

Flight of Passage:
75 Minute Posted Wait Time, 40 Minute Actual Wait

Kilimanjaro Safaris:
30 Minute Posted Wait Time, 24 Minute Actual Wait

Soarin’:
50 Minute Posted Wait Time, 35 Minute Actual Wait

Test Track:
45 Minute Posted Wait Time, 25 Minute Actual Wait

Rock’n Roller Coaster:
65 Minute Posted Wait Time, 71 Minute Actual Wait

Toy Story Midway Mania
55 Minute Posted Wait Time, 31 Minute Actual Wait

We also did some end-of-the-day checks at the Magic Kingdom. Here is what we found:

Pirates of the Carribean:
20 Minute Posted Wait Time, Walk-on Actual Wait

Space Mountain:
35 Minute Posted Wait Time, 5 Minute Actual Wait

Big Thunder Mountain Railroad:
45 Minute Posted Wait Time, 20 Minute Actual Wait

Buzz Lightyear Space Ranger Spin:
25 Minute Posted Wait Time, 14 Minute Actual Wait


This seems to be consistent each time we send somebody to check the actual numbers.

 

[Brian]

Why do t they use the red tags anymore. Wouldn’t that help provide accurate times?

The wait times are calculated using long range RF from MagicBands as well data from the My Disney Experience app now. The flick cards were not as accurate as they sometimes weren't scanned at the merge point (guest held onto them, CM forgot to scan), and they didn't have as many data points as they do now.

Also, while I am not suggesting that Disney is nefariously inflating wait times to sell Genie+/LL/after hours tickets (I have no insight into the current state of affairs), wait times are not controlled by the CMs at the attractions themselves. There's a team that handles that based on the data from the aforementioned sources.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

While Disney definitely has a financial reason to inflate the wait times now, I remember back in 2019 the posted wait time for Navi River was like 50 minutes and the actual wait was around 20.

I felt like WDW always kept “new” and headliner attractions above a certain limit just so people would think they were something special.

 

[Brian]

I've always assumed Disney inflates wait times for guest satisfaction purposes (at least partially).

This. I can't speak to attraction wait times, but there were similar best practices in place across many LOBs, even pre-MM+.

If you quote a guest a 30 minute wait and it turns out to be 40, they're likely to complain. If you quote them 40 and it ends up being 30, it's a win.