News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
Tell that to the never ending supply chain issues to get needed parts to fix vehicles sitting in driveways or car dealers , no ETA to get parts. ( ie an owner of a GT350 Mustang that is struggling get an oil filter. ).
That's not what the economy is. The economy is sometimes influence but that is a much bigger indication of what corporations are doing to continue to raise prices or unwillingness to pay proper wages. There is no reason for anyone to fear the economy at this moment however someone should be speaking softly and carrying a big stick when it comes to insuring that business pulls it's weight and in this case there is still a backlog along with a number of sanctions that are influencing thing but it will clean up soon. Someone not being able to get a part for a GT350 Mustang is a FORD problem not the governments. If they are not producing enough that is hardly on the shoulders of government. I don't think you will see a huge parts for a mustang rally in the near future.
 

RamblinWreck

Well-Known Member
Tell that to the never ending supply chain issues to get needed parts to fix vehicles sitting in driveways or car dealers , no ETA to get parts. ( ie an owner of a GT350 Mustang that is struggling get an oil filter. ).
Too much demand for the supply doesn’t seem to imply a weak economy.


It brings to mind an old Yogi Berra quote. “Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded.”
 
Last edited:

danlb_2000

Premium Member
Yeah it’s a really strange time for the economy. Inflation is obviously still an issue, but most other economic factors have turned positive. The bear market from last year has officially been declared over after just 9 months which is relatively short. The looming recession still hasn’t materialized. I don’t think there is a good comparison in recent history. If inflation continues to trend down the rest of this year 2024 could be setup for a major economic boom. However, there’s also a chance inflation stays higher than we want and further rate cuts eventually push us into that recession. I think the next 6 months will be very interesting.

... just like the last 42 months. :)
 

mikejs78

Premium Member
State politics don't have anything to do with summer crowds who have booked many months ago.

What's happening at Disney is that the bubble is finally breaking. That's why they are rolling back some of the planning ridiculousness, because they know what is coming. It will likely help slow the loss a bit, but isn't going to reverse what has happened because it doesn't address the core issues leading to where they find themselves today.

Galactic Starcruiser wasn't an anomaly - it was the great big flapping screaming mynock in the coal mine.

It is just the most egregious example of why the parks are finally losing their audiences. The amazement we have had over the past few years at just how they manage to stay so packed at such prices, with such a lower level of - practically everything measurable when it comes to the park experience - is finally coming to a head. Those limitless people are indeed proving limited, it just took them a few years to work through them all.

The magic has all but gone. Yes, (some) of the classic, timeless attractions remain, but everything else - has just gone to heck in a handbasket. Anyone that remembers the mostly care-free days where you explored the parks, there was something going on around every corner, where at most you planned a dining reservation and picked up a fast pass or two as you went about your day. Before everyone spent 1/2 their vacations stuck on their phones, either out of need (all the FP+ nonsense) or because they are addicted and bored because the streets are no longer filled with entertainment and fun.

And then you have the prices. Disney has done everything they can for the past two decades since MYW to convince everyone that the only way to spend a week at Disney is on-site, or you miss out. The prices have skyrocketed so high that it just isn't the reach of the average family any more. They have depended on the upper-middle clients who were willing to spend the money Disney now demands - but given the state of the "magic" and their own preferences - it's not a place they feel like they need to continue going year after year. You can go countless destinations around the world for the price of a WDW vacation - and those people are doing just that instead of returning to WDW just to ride Pirates again.

The well of people who are well-off enough to go to Disney and just came for their Instagram-kicks and to say "yup we took our kids" is drying up, and those "lifers" like myself are just so disillusioned with the state of everything and put off (or unable to afford) what it costs to go now, the "base" - are not going in the nearly numbers that we used to be.

That doesn't explain why the rest of the central Florida theme parks are seeing soft demand this summer.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Back home from my weekend of drinking beer at the beach while floating on a giant flamingo and eating fried fish, and great news: there were no filings while I was gone.

Have a good week!
Were you in Destin FL where a number of sun worshippers were in the turquoise clear waters with the baby bear swimming in the shallow waters?
 

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
That doesn't explain why the rest of the central Florida theme parks are seeing soft demand this summer.
Oh, yes it does. Disney in spite of it flaws, which are many I might add, is still the theme park to go to and the others are secondary. Usually anyone that goes to those parks have either already been to WDW or are going there next. If Disney drops so do the rest because they all come from the same incentive to be there and that is WDW. As far as the beaches are concerned, that depends of different things. As much as we hate to admit it, we lost a lot of snowbirds to Covid so that would be down for that reason. Otherwise that has it's own specific audience. A lot of LGBTQ people have left the state and they spent a lot of money at the various theme parks. There are so many things that can be to blame and almost all of them are connected.
 

Nubs70

Well-Known Member
The economy isn’t tanking. Lowest unemployment in 50 years, high job production, lowering inflation, rising wages, etc.
Inflation has not lowered. The rate of increase is slowing. Seeing we are in year 2 of an inflationary cycle, inflation has compounded over the last 2 years. If May 2022 YoY inflation rate was 9% and May 2023 inflation rate slowed to 6%, the inflation rate since 2021 is 15%. Your purchasing power in May 2023 is 85% of May 2021.

The only way for your purchasing power to return to 2021 levels is to go through a deflationary cycle which will have a worse impact on your investments than an inflationary cycle. The current price for goods and services will never return to 2021 levels, current "high" prices are here to stay.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Inflation has not lowered. The rate of increase is slowing. Seeing we are in year 2 of an inflationary cycle, inflation has compounded over the last 2 years. If May 2022 YoY inflation rate was 9% and May 2023 inflation rate slowed to 6%, the inflation rate since 2021 is 15%. Your purchasing power in May 2023 is 85% of May 2021.

The only way for your purchasing power to return to 2021 levels is to go through a deflationary cycle which will have a worse impact on your investments than an inflationary cycle. The current price for goods and services will never return to 2021 levels, current "high" prices are here to stay.
Whatever the case I'm happy my investments are increasing thanks to the Wall Street bulls that are running!
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Inflation has not lowered. The rate of increase is slowing. Seeing we are in year 2 of an inflationary cycle, inflation has compounded over the last 2 years. If May 2022 YoY inflation rate was 9% and May 2023 inflation rate slowed to 6%, the inflation rate since 2021 is 15%. Your purchasing power in May 2023 is 85% of May 2021.

The only way for your purchasing power to return to 2021 levels is to go through a deflationary cycle which will have a worse impact on your investments than an inflationary cycle. The current price for goods and services will never return to 2021 levels, current "high" prices are here to stay.
This is true. We are never going to get back to 2021 levels and that should not be the goal anyway. A large driver of that is wage growth. McDonald’s is hiring starting at $15 an hour near me, WDW at $18 soon. 10 years go the min wage at McDs and WDW was less than half that. It’s impossible to pay employees significantly more money and not raise prices for goods and services. Unless there is some sort of major shift in wages we can’t return to previous price levels. Wage growth traditionally lags inflation so in theory if/when inflation levels stabilize at 2% there should be some additional wage growth that occurs after that before going back to slower wage growth. It’s likely won’t be enough to make up for the last 2 years but who knows.

The May CPI report released today showed a year over year inflation rate of 4%. That’s still elevated vs the normal run rate which is around 2% but is significantly less than the rate was over the last few years. The goal of slowing inflation isn’t to get prices back to 2021 levels but to get inflation growth levels back to 2% a year, ideally. Over the last few decades where we had steady low inflation prices were still going up most years it was just at a slow and steady 2% clip.
 

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
This is true. We are never going to get back to 2021 levels and that should not be the goal anyway. A large driver of that is wage growth. McDonald’s is hiring starting at $15 an hour near me, WDW at $18 soon. 10 years go the min wage at McDs and WDW was less than half that. It’s impossible to pay employees significantly more money and not raise prices for goods and services. Unless there is some sort of major shift in wages we can’t return to previous price levels. Wage growth traditionally lags inflation so in theory if/when inflation levels stabilize at 2% there should be some additional wage growth that occurs after that before going back to slower wage growth. It’s likely won’t be enough to make up for the last 2 years but who knows.

The May CPI report released today showed a year over year inflation rate of 4%. That’s still elevated vs the normal run rate which is around 2% but is significantly less than the rate was over the last few years. The goal of slowing inflation isn’t to get prices back to 2021 levels but to get inflation growth levels back to 2% a year, ideally. Over the last few decades where we had steady low inflation prices were still going up most years it was just at a slow and steady 2% clip.
lots of interest rate hikes to attempt to curb inflation....we will see how that works out long term. Historically, we know what follows. The only weird thing is Covid may have thrown off the typical cycle a bit...
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
The goal of slowing inflation isn’t to get prices back to 2021 levels but to get inflation growth levels back to 2% a year, ideally. Over the last few decades where we had steady low inflation prices were still going up most years it was just at a slow and steady 2% clip.
Ahh to yearn for when school milk only cost a nickel. Perhaps maybe a dime or a quarter for those of you younger. Also, get off my lawn. (Wasn't a park ticket under $50 at some point too?)
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
lots of interest rate hikes to attempt to curb inflation....we will see how that works out long term. Historically, we know what follows. The only weird thing is Covid may have thrown off the typical cycle a bit...
The interest rate hikes were long over due. If we had been slowly and methodically raising rates when the economy got hot it wouldn’t have been so dramatic. Instead we left rates at near zero for far too long, but we all enjoyed low rate mortgages and red hot stock market (I refinanced down to 2.5% and the enjoyed the huge gains in my 401k and stock accounts). The good news is that if/when the next recession hits the fed has that tool back to stimulate the economy. You can’t cut interest rates very effectively when the rate is already zero or close to it. My bank account also pays interest again….small benefit 🤑🤑🤑🤑
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Ahh to yearn for when school milk only cost a nickel. Perhaps maybe a dime or a quarter for those of you younger. Also, get off my lawn. (Wasn't a park ticket under $50 at some point too?)
I think it was actually this century that the 1 day price was under $50. The average daily price for a 10 day ticket was under $50 not too many years back. My trip in 2017 we averaged $49 a day so probably the last year of that.
 

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom