Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
This is just a bump in the road. As soon as there is a friendly gov in FL, WDW will be fine.
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News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District
- Thread starter castlecake2.0
- Start date
One thing is for sure. The next man or woman who leads FL would be setting their own mark, not following in the former leader footsteps.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
It may be a big issue for people but a large bloc choose to vote against their economic interests as proven by past data. A presidential run was lost because they ignored the economy but people gonna people into infinity
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
It was vastly more than $1400 for many, I think my unemployment during Covid (with all the federal add ons) was nearly $30k, iirc I was getting $1000 a week for 4 (?) months. That was a pay cut for many but for millions more it was a raise over their normal income, many also didn’t bother paying rent for a year so that helped also.Can stimulus talk die already?
I don't know about you.. but how far are people stretching $1400 bucks? That was 2 years ago now
That money is likely all long gone by now though.
flynnibus
Premium Member
So talking about 2021 stimulus, which even in your scenario, was money over a year ago. We're talking about vacations upcoming this summer... If a few grand is a huge enabler for you, are they also the type that would save that money for over a year?
Is this the demographic we are concerned about saving that and using it to take vacations with that money a year+ later?
We're talking about the people struggling with moderate incomes... I don't see a great intersection between 'moderate income' 'still saved that money' and also 'able to pay for the 5k WDW vacation' and that in bulk to be steering a downturn vs normal visiting.
Usually those who aren't accustomed to the money are also the types that can't let money burn a hole in their pocket. And we're talking about future outlook vs norms... not just what happened during stimulus (which was still down vs norms).
I think that money is in the rear view mirror... except for the impact it's had on inflation and the long term impact for the businesses saw in costs and revenue disruption consequences.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
It was money received over a year ago and spent last Summer. The point is that same money isn’t there for this Summer. So when you compare Summer 2022 to Summer 2023 there is less disposable income available this year. Covid money goes beyond just stimulus checks direct from the government too. There was deferred school loans, rent forgiveness and extended unemployment but probably more of an issue for the demographic that vacations at WDW there were decreased work costs for many people who were working remotely. Gas, tolls, new clothing, lunch and happy hours out all add up. A significant portion of the workforce still received the same or a similar paycheck but had less expenses leading to excess disposable income. Some of that was eaten up by higher grocery bills and inflation but as more and more people return to the office those work expenses are coming back. Last Summer also had the tail end of pent up vacation demand. 2020 and even 2021 saw significant decreases in leisure travel due to various Covid variant outbreaks.So talking about 2021 stimulus, which even in your scenario, was money over a year ago. We're talking about vacations upcoming this summer... If a few grand is a huge enabler for you, are they also the type that would save that money for over a year?
I’m not saying all of this is the only driver of decreases in tourism but it is a factor.
It is in the rear view mirror. That is the point. Very few people saved stimulus money and are spending it on a Summer 2023 WDW vacation. They likely would have spent it in 2021 or 2022
flynnibus
Premium Member
Yeah, but the measuring stick isn't just summer 2022 - it's targets for what they were planning for now and I think that's our biggest disconnect. I think your point is 'down vs last year because last year was boosted still with stimulus'. The fool.com is down so I can't read what they are on about, but I think the discussion should be more about 2023 targets than comparing to 2022.. which like 2021 was still highly irregular when talking about relative comparisons for many reasons as mentioned.
I don't think Disney was looking at their business as just 'hey, 2022 plus X' but trying to predict getting back to norms. Now we see headwinds that aren't just crashing sugar-highs. I think my concern is more around customer sentiment due to inflation, employment, and price escalation in this segment.
This uncertainty is impacting a lot of industry, even those outside the types that would have gotten a boost for 'free money'.
I know I wish I would have gotten thousands... but got jack squat
UNCgolf
Well-Known Member
Deferred school loans may be a bigger factor than you think -- generally the people with the largest student loan payments are the ones who are presumably in Disney's main target audience, and are often of the age to have kids to take to Disney. The people with those huge loans also often don't make nearly as much money as you'd think (especially attorneys), so having several hundred extra dollars available every month is a pretty big deal.
That's not to say they simply couldn't afford a Disney trip without the deferred loans, but having that extra disposable cash would make it easier to choose to go during that time frame.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I don’t disagree. I said the primary driver was inflation and the overall economy. It’s not Disney specific either. The article talked about deep discounts and lower crowds at all 3 major parks.Yeah, but the measuring stick isn't just summer 2022 - it's targets for what they were planning for now and I think that's our biggest disconnect. I think your point is 'down vs last year because last year was boosted still with stimulus'. The fool.com is down so I can't read what they are on about, but I think the discussion should be more about 2023 targets than comparing to 2022.. which like 2021 was still highly irregular when talking about relative comparisons for many reasons as mentioned.
I don't think Disney was looking at their business as just 'hey, 2022 plus X' but trying to predict getting back to norms. Now we see headwinds that aren't just crashing sugar-highs. I think my concern is more around customer sentiment due to inflation, employment, and price escalation in this segment.
This uncertainty is impacting a lot of industry, even those outside the types that would have gotten a boost for 'free money'.
I know I wish I would have gotten thousands... but got jack squat
As far as the free money, I didn’t get a stimulus check but I definitely benefited from lower costs from working from home. I also did some “revenge“ vacation spending the last 2 years with multiple longer vacations in 2021 and 2022 to make up for squat in 2020. This year I’m back to a more normal run rate for vacation spending.
Angel Ariel
Well-Known Member
We’re looking to head there this year too, I think. DLR still seems to have quite a lot of the streetmosphere entertainment that have been harder and harder to find at WDW in recent years. Though the rate hikes at the motels on Harbor post-pandemic is ridiculous.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
CaptainNicko
Active Member
Yes. 100%. You can't get an Allstate, USAA, or State Farm homeowners policy. They will happily write you a policy with another company through their internal agency. That's what you are seeing here . We have no national companies writing significant numbers of policies in Florida.
Both sides are right here. There is no national State Farm or Allstate in Florida. But there's State Farm Florida and Castle Key, a subsidiary of Allstate. These companies are affiliated but separate from the national brands.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Right, they are financially insulated from the parent company and should not be considered as having the full weight and resources to pay as the parent company. The parent will toss the child to the wolves and close up shop if heavy losses hit.
The economy isn’t tanking. Lowest unemployment in 50 years, high job production, lowering inflation, rising wages, etc.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Yeah it’s a really strange time for the economy. Inflation is obviously still an issue, but most other economic factors have turned positive. The bear market from last year has officially been declared over after just 9 months which is relatively short. The looming recession still hasn’t materialized. I don’t think there is a good comparison in recent history. If inflation continues to trend down the rest of this year 2024 could be setup for a major economic boom. However, there’s also a chance inflation stays higher than we want and further rate cuts eventually push us into that recession. I think the next 6 months will be very interesting.
Tell that to the never ending supply chain issues to get needed parts to fix vehicles sitting in driveways or car dealers , no ETA to get parts. ( ie an owner of a GT350 Mustang that is struggling get an oil filter. ).
hopemax
Well-Known Member
Two things. There is a West Coast based tech / finance contraction. But the US is not just the west coast. Home and manufacturing plant construction is on fire, so it’s going to be hard to get the economy in recession over all. But a lot of tech bros with social media presence are experiencing the west coast contraction and are freaking out, so like a lot of things, the messaging and reality are not in lockstep. I’ve seen quite a few “it’s an asset class recession and a blue collar class boom,” framing from economists trying to figure things out.