Ready to buy, push me over the edge

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Congrats on your dvc purchase and thank you for starting this thread. I had been looking at dvc recently and after following this thread I also put an offer and was accepted today.

Feel free not to answer:

Where’d ya buy?

The pros of Riviera is that it’s self contained and the skyliner. The rooms are also big and nicely finished, the closest DVC has come to meeting the finish standards set by the other timeshares in Orlando. Still worse, but close.

The cons are the point chart, the point chart, the point chart, the point chart, and the point chart. Resale restrictions are also a con but not in the vicinity of the point charts. What a joke.

A resale contract at BWV is MUCH cheaper on a cost per year basis than Riviera is new, once you account for the opportunity cost of putting that money into DVC instead of saving it. If you want to be near crescent lake, that’s the best option.

How’s that when you are closing in on 20 years remaining on the contract?

That’s The sticky for me on resales.

 

[CastAStone]

How’s that when you are closing in on 20 years remaining on the contract?

That’s The sticky for me on resales.

The basic idea is that if you wanted to have $5000 to spend on a vacation in 2042, you’d only have to invest $1300 in a S&P fund now to do it. For a 2062 vacation that number is like $400. So it’s not reasonable to value the out years the same way you value the next few years; the should be deflated.

And I would argue they should be further deflated for all of the risk you are agreeing to absolve the Walt Disney Company of - what if climate change makes the parks unbearable?What if they totally start to neglect the parks? What if they spin off the parks division and things get weird? You’re still on the hook. We have some visibility to the next 10 years and can see that’s unlikely to happen. We have less visibility to 20+ years, and should probably not make any assumptions. Thus, the value of those years should be deflated further.

Finally, some of the 2042 contracts are just cheap. You could get Boardwalk for $110 last summer. BRV sells sub-$100 contracts all the time. Stack those with the point charts and mathematically discounting the out years and for BRV and BWV the total dollars per night, in both dues and buy in, is a good bit lower than say Poly or CCV, which have a ton of years left.

OKW would be right there too except the dues are kinda high and the 2057 contracts only usually go for $6-$7 more.

Beach Club is so expensive you’d be better off renting and for a 1 bedroom you’re better off paying cash through Disney. The beach resorts also don’t make sense to buy, but it’s more because of dues.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The basic idea is that if you wanted to have $5000 to spend on a vacation in 2042, you’d only have to invest $1300 in a S&P fund now to do it. For a 2062 vacation that number is like $400. So it’s not reasonable to value the out years the same way you value the next few years; the should be deflated.

And I would argue they should be further deflated for all of the risk you are agreeing to absolve the Walt Disney Company of - what if climate change makes the parks unbearable?What if they totally start to neglect the parks? What if they spin off the parks division and things get weird? You’re still on the hook. We have some visibility to the next 10 years and can see that’s unlikely to happen. We have less visibility to 20+ years, and should probably not make any assumptions. Thus, the value of those years should be deflated further.

Finally, some of the 2042 contracts are just cheap. You could get Boardwalk for $110 last summer. BRV sells sub-$100 contracts all the time. Stack those with the point charts and mathematically discounting the out years and for BRV and BWV the total dollars per night, in both dues and buy in, is a good bit lower than say Poly or CCV, which have a ton of years left.

OKW would be right there too except the dues are kinda high and the 2057 contracts only usually go for $6-$7 more.

Beach Club is so expensive you’d be better off renting and for a 1 bedroom you’re better off paying cash through Disney. The beach resorts also don’t make sense to buy, but it’s more because of dues.

Oh...ok...

When I determined “value” about 17 years or so when I first thought about this...it was purchase price + guesstimate of due appreciation multiplied out over years divided by total points allocated...

And then you apply that value to the point chart.

Some guesswork...but efficient.


You got somekinda Nuevo stock/hedge/bond market gambling going here

And it’s “wilderness lodge classic” and “wilderness lodge laughable”....no need to go along with those hijinx

 

[striker1064]

The basic idea is that if you wanted to have $5000 to spend on a vacation in 2042, you’d only have to invest $1300 in a S&P fund now to do it. For a 2062 vacation that number is like $400. So it’s not reasonable to value the out years the same way you value the next few years; the should be deflated.

And I would argue they should be further deflated for all of the risk you are agreeing to absolve the Walt Disney Company of - what if climate change makes the parks unbearable?What if they totally start to neglect the parks? What if they spin off the parks division and things get weird? You’re still on the hook. We have some visibility to the next 10 years and can see that’s unlikely to happen. We have less visibility to 20+ years, and should probably not make any assumptions. Thus, the value of those years should be deflated further.

Finally, some of the 2042 contracts are just cheap. You could get Boardwalk for $110 last summer. BRV sells sub-$100 contracts all the time. Stack those with the point charts and mathematically discounting the out years and for BRV and BWV the total dollars per night, in both dues and buy in, is a good bit lower than say Poly or CCV, which have a ton of years left.

OKW would be right there too except the dues are kinda high and the 2057 contracts only usually go for $6-$7 more.

Beach Club is so expensive you’d be better off renting and for a 1 bedroom you’re better off paying cash through Disney. The beach resorts also don’t make sense to buy, but it’s more because of dues.

I totally agree with all this. 5 years ago I couldn't tell you I was going to be where I am now. Who knows what life will be like in 2042, for a number of reasons? Plus, there's always annual dues. Yes, we are only required to pay for what the upkeep actually costs annually, but there are a lot of factors that could cause that to go up in ways we can't imagine. A resort with ballooning annual dues that expires in only 20 years in an area I love to stay is a positive to me, not a negative.

So of course, we bought CCV because my better half doesn't like the idea of the contracts expiring so soon. Oh well. I do love CCV as well, but I often wish we had just bought BWV when we bought our first contract a few years ago and been done with it.

 

[Familyof5]

After going back and forth for years and with a stimulus check likely on the way, I think we're finally going to jump into DVC if we can get a good price.

What we know:

• 160 to 200 points
• Resale
• Not picky about use year

Resorts we're not considering and why:

• Too expensive upfront: Bay Lake Tower, Beach Club, Boardwalk, Copper Creek, Grand Californian, Grand Floridian, Polynesian
• Decent price per point but contract ends too soon: Boulder Ridge, Old Key West 2042
• High and unpredictable fees: Hilton Head, Vero Beach
• I hate it with a passion: Riviera

That leaves:

• Animal Kingdom
• Aulani
• Saratoga Springs
• Old Key West 2057

Since Old Key West 2057 is just about impossible to find, we're focusing on the other three. Our most common travel pattern will be to bank-and-borrow to do 8 nights in a two bedroom villa every three years in the summer or late April (i.e. not Christmas, Easter, peak Spring Break, Presidents' Week, Thanksgiving, or Food and Wine). Our choice will come down to relative resort availability at the 7 month window. The math makes the most sense at Saratoga, so the crux of my question is what type of availability can I expect to see at Animal Kingdom and Aulani at 7 months? I don't mind being "stuck" at Saratoga once in awhile, but I'd rather not stay there every time, especially since both the Studios and 1BRs only have a capacity of 4.

I've stayed at DVC too many times to count; love it. Just can't afford purchase. However, I have rented points. Having said that, a couple of things to consider:

1. Check the rules about banking points. Not sure about the ability to bank for 2 years into a third. DVC should be able to clarify the rules. And, these rules have temporary rules....because many people had to postpone vacations due to Covid.

2. I love Saratoga; it is actually my #1 choice for a longer stay at DVC. My husband golfs....I go for long walks and the kids love the pools. Also convenient to walk to Disney Springs. We Uber to the parks; but, for us, Parks are not every day.

3. Getting a 1BD in Saratoga Springs needs advance planning (especially for 2021....when all the postponed vacations occur). I never had a problem getting a 2BD.

4. We have had some challenges booking Animal Kingdom....but, we usually book Saratoga and then fit in Animal Kindgom at the beginning or end during the week. We fly in or out on a Wed. Takes fewer points and is more available than a weekend.

5. One thing to check, fees may be higher at AK than Saratoga, because you need to care for animals.

 

[Indy_UK]

Our 210 points for AKL offer was accepted and has now gone for ROFR. Our plan is to go every other year and while we are thrilled to finally being in the road to DVC members, for AKL we are already thinking we may want more points.

410 every other year is good but I think we need to be nearer the 500-520 mark. That means when we do go every other we can get a 1 bedroom Kidani room with Savana or a 2 bedroom standard view if we take extra family one year

maybe a small 75 point booster will do the trick.

plan to stay at other resorts over time but really don’t have the desire for many of them except Boardwalk or Bay Lake Tower

 

[nickys]

Part of the problem in assessing it is that there are three major variables, so assigning blame to any one of them in particular is impossible. You have a crazy cost/points chart, a generic resort, AND unique contract terms and conditions.

I think a moderately-themed resort with a points chart structured accordingly could have been a fair addition to the portfolio. But they built their moderately-themed resort and gave it a Grand Cali points chart.

They cannot have a moderate points chart though. Sure it can be one of the cheaper ones, but all points are equal in terms of what they’re worth.

I've stayed at DVC too many times to count; love it. Just can't afford purchase. However, I have rented points. Having said that, a couple of things to consider:

1. Check the rules about banking points. Not sure about the ability to bank for 2 years into a third. DVC should be able to clarify the rules. And, these rules have temporary rules....because many people had to postpone vacations due to Covid.

2. I love Saratoga; it is actually my #1 choice for a longer stay at DVC. My husband golfs....I go for long walks and the kids love the pools. Also convenient to walk to Disney Springs. We Uber to the parks; but, for us, Parks are not every day.

3. Getting a 1BD in Saratoga Springs needs advance planning (especially for 2021....when all the postponed vacations occur). I never had a problem getting a 2BD.

4. We have had some challenges booking Animal Kingdom....but, we usually book Saratoga and then fit in Animal Kindgom at the beginning or end during the week. We fly in or out on a Wed. Takes fewer points and is more available than a weekend.

5. One thing to check, fees may be higher at AK than Saratoga, because you need to care for animals.

1. To use three years worth of points you bank and borrow, not bank for 2 years.
3. 1-beds are the easiest to get at every resort 95% of the time. Not sure why you had trouble renting a 1-bed, maybe you wanted preferred which would be popular right now because they are all refurbed? Otherwise for the life of me cannot understand it.

 

[nickys]

Our 210 points for AKL offer was accepted and has now gone for ROFR. Our plan is to go every other year and while we are thrilled to finally being in the road to DVC members, for AKL we are already thinking we may want more points.

410 every other year is good but I think we need to be nearer the 500-520 mark. That means when we do go every other we can get a 1 bedroom Kidani room with Savana or a 2 bedroom standard view if we take extra family one year

maybe a small 75 point booster will do the trick.

plan to stay at other resorts over time but really don’t have the desire for many of them except Boardwalk or Bay Lake Tower

Fingers crossed for you too for ROFR.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

They cannot have a moderate points chart though. Sure it can be one of the cheaper ones, but all points are equal in terms of what they’re worth.

1 point equals one point, but you can absolutely have a "lesser" resort that costs fewer points per night. Of course that's the case. That's why a studio at Poly costs many more points than a studio at Old Key West.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Side note, what's the deal with Saratoga Springs 1BR? The refurb pictures pretty clearly shows a king, a queen pull-down, and a child fold-down, but the points chart says it sleeps 4. Shouldn't it be 5?

EDIT: This would also push the 2 bedroom to 9 I believe.

 

[CastAStone]

Side note, what's the deal with Saratoga Springs 1BR? The refurb pictures pretty clearly shows a king, a queen pull-down, and a child fold-down, but the points chart says it sleeps 4. Shouldn't it be 5?

EDIT: This would also push the 2 bedroom to 9 I believe.

They won’t update occupancy until the entire resort is complete.

 

[nickys]

1 point equals one point, but you can absolutely have a "lesser" resort that costs fewer points per night. Of course that's the case. That's why a studio at Poly costs many more points than a studio at Old Key West.

Yes, you’re right.

I was thinking of a moderate buy-in, which would open up a can of worms.

 

[DugLovesU]

After going back and forth for years and with a stimulus check likely on the way, I think we're finally going to jump into DVC if we can get a good price.

What we know:

• 160 to 200 points
• Resale
• Not picky about use year

Resorts we're not considering and why:

• Too expensive upfront: Bay Lake Tower, Beach Club, Boardwalk, Copper Creek, Grand Californian, Grand Floridian, Polynesian
• Decent price per point but contract ends too soon: Boulder Ridge, Old Key West 2042
• High and unpredictable fees: Hilton Head, Vero Beach
• I hate it with a passion: Riviera

That leaves:

• Animal Kingdom
• Aulani
• Saratoga Springs
• Old Key West 2057

Since Old Key West 2057 is just about impossible to find, we're focusing on the other three. Our most common travel pattern will be to bank-and-borrow to do 8 nights in a two bedroom villa every three years in the summer or late April (i.e. not Christmas, Easter, peak Spring Break, Presidents' Week, Thanksgiving, or Food and Wine). Our choice will come down to relative resort availability at the 7 month window. The math makes the most sense at Saratoga, so the crux of my question is what type of availability can I expect to see at Animal Kingdom and Aulani at 7 months? I don't mind being "stuck" at Saratoga once in awhile, but I'd rather not stay there every time, especially since both the Studios and 1BRs only have a capacity of 4.

As a DVC Member and frequent WDW guest here’s my take:
SSR advantages: Quiet and restful, Close to Disney Springs (although only Congress Park is really within walking distance), the new room & villa remodel is really attractive.
SSR disadvantages: Somewhat distant from the parks, does not have much of a Disney feel.
AKL advantages: Watching animals from your balcony!! (If you stay here you really need to pay extra for the Savanna View), great pool complexes, easy access to inexpensive dining and shopping on US 192, beautiful lobby at Jambo House.
AKL disadvantages: Again kind of isolated from the rest of WDW, on-site dining is rather exotic (at least for my tastes).
At both of these a car or using rideshare is very beneficial except for going to Magic Kingdom.
Aulani: I have not been there and don’t intend to go so I don’t feel qualified to comment. Though I do know it’s taking FOREVER to sell.

 

[DugLovesU]

Kidani Standard View essentially looks at bus stops or parking lots.

View attachment 535322

The species is MCO rental car in their natural habitat.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Noob question... can I do this:

Book one night at a resort with points. Book the seven following nights at the same resort, same booking category, etc. with cash. Link the two reservations somehow so we don't have to change rooms.

ETA: My understanding is that there's a way to book rooms withing the DVC member portal. I would *not* be booking the cash portion of the room that way.

 

[CastAStone]

Noob question... can I do this:

Book one night at a resort with points. Book the seven following nights at the same resort, same booking category, etc. with cash. Link the two reservations somehow so we don't have to change rooms.

ETA: My understanding is that there's a way to book rooms withing the DVC member portal. I would *not* be booking the cash portion of the room that way.

Member services should be able to link the reservations

 

[nickys]

Member services should be able to link the reservations

My experience is they can’t link them. However you can have Member Services note that you have a continuing reservation and the chances are you will be able to stay in the same room.

Room assignments are done centrally now for all resorts, including DVC, and start at 30 days out. So get the notes done when you book. And then when you arrive go to the front desk and remind them. They might be able to tell you there and then that you can keep your room, or you might have to check back later.

You can book the cash stay through Member Services and may get a discounted rate of 25% off. However if you have APs you may find their discount is better, ditto any discounts CRO will offer. I think both those would have to be booked through CRO (or whatever they are called now).

 

[aliceismad]

I actually liked the concept art for Reflections...

Me too. It seems that was an unpopular opinion, but it did remind me a lot of some of the more modern properties in the west/northwest. Like some of the ski lodges in Park City, for example.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Me too. It seems that was an unpopular opinion, but it did remind me a lot of some of the more modern properties in the west/northwest. Like some of the ski lodges in Park City, for example.

"Modern" seems to be a bad word around here. People seem to think "modern" means "not themed" but I think you can do both.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Starting to get nervous/annoyed. Our sellers haven't signed the contract yet.