TWDC will never admit it, but they take money from divisions to pay for stuff in other divisions. They move money around for sure.
You can't see that on a spreadsheet.
What they see is:
- Monorail costs money
What they don't see is:
- Monorail making money (directly - through sales of tickets for the monorail)
I think that they will do the minimum, for now, to keep the monorails running to keep Disney fans (folks here) at bay. Eventually they'll reach the point where it isn't worth the time/money to repair them and that's when I think they'll be retired. When that is, I don't know. I just think that's the path they're on.
It'll likely be something like:
"The monorail will be shut down for the Summer 202x for refurbishment"
...and everyone here will go nuts because... "FINALLY! THEY'RE ADDRESSING THE MONORAIL!!"
then time will pass and people will wonder... " is going on with the monorail. We're not seeing any progress on this..." Others will argue back, "They're ordering parts... They're working on it behind the scenes - they're not going to park the monorail over the MK entrance and work on it there... Don't be dumb!"
... and more time will pass and people will start wondering, "Are they really working on the monorail?"
After a year or so it'll be announced the monorail isn't coming back.
The beams will stay for another 20 years... no maintenance on them.. Just slowly being overgrown and turning more black due to mold.
I believe that's where we are headed.
"But! but!!! What about the Deluxe hotels???"
... they'll remain Deluxe hotels and their prices will continue to increase. You'll get bus service and you'll like it. The excuses we'll see here will be along the lines of, "Honestly... The buses take me straight to the park I want, any park, and it's kind of a no-brainer... I don't even miss the monorail and, in some ways, it makes it less complicated to get around the resort."
"But!! But!!! The Monorail is iconic!"
I'm not arguing that it's not. I'm arguing that it won't be once you're used to not seeing them.
Bottom line:
If they wanted the Monorail to remain viable, long term, then they would have replaced the trains, done proper maintenance, etc. They wouldn't have had doors swinging open and parts falling off a few years back. They'd run, and brag about running, at 99.9% up-time and they'd be clean / pleasant to be on. You wouldn't have to use the excuse of, "People are crappier today," to cover for Disney.
This is about money. The Monorail costs a lot of money (compared to buses) and doesn't return anything, directly.
It wouldn't surprise me to see them build parking garages on either side of the park to fix the problem of having to get people across the lake. You could have one garage just North of the Contemporary and another on the other side of the canal West of the park. You could run two trams back and forth to ferry people to the front gate OR just let them walk and save on trams (they've shown they'll do this).
Also, ticket prices will increase... and you'll pay it.