News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[CJR]

I think Star Wars land will bring a lot of people in but I personally think it will be no where near as packed as people are estimating.

Agree with both points and will add - this isn't to say it'll be empty, just that the expectations might be a bit too high. I think DL's SWL will be more crowded than DHS', personally.

 

[HauntedPirate]

I think Star Wars land will bring a lot of people in but I personally think it will be no where near as packed as people are estimating.

1. The last two movies drastically under performed, merchandise is always marked down. Over saturation has already kicked in under Disney’s ownership.

2. It isn’t a unique land. People won’t all be flocking to WDW all at one, there will be Star Wars lands at California and Paris as well. Half of the people will go east, the rest west and Europeans who can wait will go to Paris. And even then it’s just two rides and a restaurant, I think causals will be disappointed as they will have expected more as I expect the marketing push to be huge.

I had more points but I think you get it.

The same thoughts were just running through my head. SW is *everywhere*. Movies, spin-off movies, TV shows, more merchandise than George Lucas ever dreamed of... that there could be a legitimate "Star Wars fatigue" setting in for many. Personally, the merchandise is telling - I'm an old-school Star Wars fan. It was special because it wasn't plentiful. Plus, I wonder if there are enough people looking at SW:GE and just aren't interested in dealing with the expected crowds, plus the fact that the same thing is opening in California roughly 6 months earlier and many SW fans will go there and be done, that crowds could actually be underwhelming within a month of opening. The mere fact that there is the perception by many of mismanagement and, for some, near-bungling of the Star Wars franchise by Disney, which had been the gold star in quality entertainment for decades, is simply astounding. It's almost as if the more they have, the lesser the quality. And while it arguably started in the last 5-6 years under Eisner, it's accelerated considerably under Iger. It's all about the "brand" and not about the product, while the opposite was true for decades. IMHO.

I agree, but maybe more people are now starting to feel that way as well?

So the thought is that Food & Wine may very well have been ... overcooked?

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Why can't I get a fast pass to Seven Dwarfs and FoP then?

 

[twebber55]

I think Star Wars land will bring a lot of people in but I personally think it will be no where near as packed as people are estimating.

1. The last two movies drastically under performed, merchandise is always marked down. Over saturation has already kicked in under Disney’s ownership.

2. It isn’t a unique land. People won’t all be flocking to WDW all at one, there will be Star Wars lands at California and Paris as well. Half of the people will go east, the rest west and Europeans who can wait will go to Paris. And even then it’s just two rides and a restaurant, I think causals will be disappointed as they will have expected more as I expect the marketing push to be huge.

I had more points but I think you get it.

yeah i agree
i think having a clone out in DL will help control DHS attendance

 

[deeevo]

Why can't I get a fast pass to Seven Dwarfs and FoP then?

Because everyone wants a FP for Seven Dwarfs and FoP

 

[Monorail_Red_77]

I do think charging for parking was a major PR disaster. I personally don't have a problem with it as a guest, and I think a significant component of the decision-making was to steer people away from renting cars and instead rely on Disney transportation rather than just a new revenue stream, but I honestly think they would have been better off simply raising room rates an additional $15 per night across the board.

Also, did they really drop guac from Pecos Bill's?

Yes, if you want to add guac to your order, you have to go back through register and order it as an add-on pay item.
Wife forgot to add it, thinking it was with coldbar items like cheese and sour cream. NOPE! She said never mind, didn't want to wait longer to eat.

 

[MrHappy]

Yes, if you want to add guac to your order, you have to go back through register and order it as an add-on pay item.
Wife forgot to add it, thinking it was with coldbar items like cheese and sour cream. NOPE! She said never mind, didn't want to wait longer to eat.

The answer is clear to turn around the declining crowds this fall. Guac-toberfest!

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

F&W has always been a poor value for the money.

This has always been true and I think can be said about just about any expense in a theme park -- you'd pay far less for it outside a theme park. Whether it's a bottle of water or F&W items. If the F&W crowds have shrunk at all (and it's too early to say that), I think it likely has more to do with them adding other similar festivals throughout the year, spreading crowds out.

 

[drod1985]

1. The last two movies drastically under performed

TLJ slightly underperformed based on projections while remaining in line with the first sequel drops of the OT and PT (based on percentage). Nobody was projecting +$2bn for TFA till the very last second, so TLJ's $1.3bn is still respectable. Solo absolutely underperformed, which is a shame because it was decently fun and a less divisive film. Had the film been pushed back to December (which according to rumor LFL wanted but Iger denied) then it may have done better. Putting it so soon after Infinity War was box office suicide.

merchandise is always marked down.

I think that's due to over production. LEGO Star Wars was the #10 best selling toy of 2018 while the rest of Star Wars toys were #3. Star Wars merch sales were strongest in 2015, but that makes sense. I don't need to buy a new version of BB-8 for my kid every year, the one from 2015 works fine.

Over saturation has already kicked in under Disney’s ownership.

I agree here, and this worries me the most about Disney's ownership of Star Wars. Two films within six months was an awful idea and backfired on them hard.

2. It isn’t a unique land. People won’t all be flocking to WDW all at one, there will be Star Wars lands at California and Paris as well. Half of the people will go east, the rest west and Europeans who can wait will go to Paris. And even then it’s just two rides and a restaurant, I think causals will be disappointed as they will have expected more as I expect the marketing push to be huge.

While I don't disagree that casuals may be underwhelmed by two rides and a restaurant I feel that if the atmosphere and theming is nailed then it will elevate the land to excellence.

Also, WWoHP opened with what, two re-themes and one new ride? That was still well received, and a huge part of that it probably how well done the atmosphere and theming was.

 

[TwilightZone]

The mere fact that there is the perception by many of mismanagement and, for some, near-bungling of the Star Wars franchise by Disney, which had been the gold star in quality entertainment for decades, is simply astounding.

I don't want this to become a star wars discussion, but while Disney may be to blame for the schedule of a new movie every year, it isn't their fault necessarily that lucasfilm has bad directors and writers right now. I mean look at marvel, it's doing the same thing, and it's run/owned by disney, and the movies are fine.

 

[Princess Leia]

Honestly, I’m pretty glad to hear about the smaller crowds. If it wasn’t for my friend getting married at the Boardwalk next month, I wouldn’t have planned going again until 2021 or 2022 (last trip was last November). Instead, next year I’ll be going to Disneyland for the first time (and will probably be caught up in their Star Wars mania, now that I think of it). I don’t really want to go to DHS again until it’s a proper full day park- without the 3 hour lines for SW:GE.

I really don’t blame people for waiting this year out. The next 3 years are going to be bringing a lot to the parks (mostly DHS), and it makes sense to hold off and save for it.

 

[13*Minute*Wait]

Word from inside the park is that there are signs of some significant slowdown in attendance this month.

Alarm bells are beginning to sound, with various areas being asked to trim back labor and begin cost saving measures.

For those of you who may not be regular readers, this isn't entirely new, and has occurred several times over the last couple of years.

For completely selfish reasons, this is great because we are going there this Thurs-Sun. We went the same time last year, and it seemed pretty crowded, even for mid-Sept.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Remember way back when the Fall used to be low crowds and people liked to brag how they'd go in the Fall because it was 'dead.'?

The past three years with high Fall attendance is the outlier. If attendance is soft, then that's back to normal, no?

Last year I went the first week of September and it was not the low crowds promised... but this year it is.

A crowded park during the off-peak season is what's unusual, not low crowds.

 

[Rteetz]

Also, WDW reported occupancy of 88% (I believe) in their last earnings call.

That was domestic occupancy so that includes all US Disney resorts I believe.

 

[MrHappy]

Perhaps a topic for another thread, but when is Disney going to roll out the tiered/seasonal park ticket pricing? I believe they traditional do ticket increases around February. But is this new tiered thing rolling out sooner?

 

[Rteetz]

Perhaps a topic for another thread, but when is Disney going to roll out the tiered/seasonal park ticket pricing? I believe they traditional do ticket increases around February. But is this new tiered thing rolling out sooner?

@lentesta has reported it will be this Fall.

 

[MrHappy]

@lentesta has reported it will be this Fall.

Thanks. So, should one be advised to purchase park tickets now (before tiered pricing) if planning a trip in 2019?

 

[Rteetz]

Thanks. So, should one be advised to purchase park tickets now (before tiered pricing) if planning a trip in 2019?

That seems to be the route to go.

 

[lentesta]

That seems to be the route to go.

Yeah, I would.

The timeframe I heard for this switch was mid-September to mid-October. I haven't heard anything about anything happening this week though.

The other two aspects of this change are:

1. The ticket vendors have significant IT changes to make to offer seasonal tickets
2. Apparently it's a complicated process for customers to actually order tickets (I've heard ~9 steps)

 

[CaptainAmerica]

This has always been true and I think can be said about just about any expense in a theme park -- you'd pay far less for it outside a theme park. Whether it's a bottle of water or F&W items. If the F&W crowds have shrunk at all (and it's too early to say that), I think it likely has more to do with them adding other similar festivals throughout the year, spreading crowds out.

Food and Wine is especially bad, it's not "normal" theme park markups. If I walk into Cosmic Ray's with $15, I'm going to leave absolutely stuffed. If I walk into Flame Tree BBQ with $15, I'm going to be pretty full with a fairly high-quality meal. If I visit F&W kiosks with $15, I'm going to still be super hungry.

That was domestic occupancy so that includes all US Disney resorts I believe.

You're correct, but DLR inventory is a tiny fraction of WDW's. I doubt it moves the needle enough where using "domestic resort occupancy" as a proxy for "WDW resort occupancy" becomes materially incorrect.