Orlando Becoming East Coast Headquarters for Disney Parks, Experiences, and Products

[doctornick]

@monothingie makes a good point, DCL6 and DCL7 could be at risk.

Yeah, if they truly want to cut budgets for the DPEP division then cutting or postponing the 6th and 7th ships would be an easy target especially if they have not started building them (which has been indicated here). And they’d be something that could be started up later when they feel the market is in better shape to receive them.

They could also just cancel one of the ships but still work on the other.

Also Lighthouse Point seems like it won’t be happening for some time (and if they don’t build the other ships they have less need for it anyway)

 

[monothingie]

Yeah, if they truly want to cut budgets for the DPEP division then cutting or postponing the 6th and 7th ships would be an easy target especially if they have started building them (which has been indicated here). And they’d be something that could be started up later when they feel the market is in better shape to receive them.

They could also just cancel one of the ships but still work on the other.

Also Lighthouse Point seems like it won’t be happening for some time (and if they don’t build the other ships they have less need for it anyway)

DCL is an interesting enigma. They’re really feeling the oats post pandemic in terms of bookings and price, but that’s based on pent up and postponed demand. In the mean time they are positioned to be very profitable for now.

The question is does the over the top pricing work for them in a down turn. Their competition offers a better value and a better product, does the Disney name sustain them?

Royal is still moving ahead with their fleet plans, essentially a new ship every 24-36 months.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

They’re really feeling the oats post pandemic...

 

[Lilofan]

Until December 2020, Jim was head of Creative at WDI. I'm *sure* he still has contacts in the building. I know him personally and can vouch for him.

Was he part of the WDI layoffs in 2020/21?

 

[Kamikaze]

Lake Nona...

That's a business decision independent of the parks. Its not something they would 'pause' for cost saving like they do for attractions. Same as they aren't going to 'pause' the Hudson Square office building. They're canceling Lake Nona for recession unrelated reasons.

 

[CastAStone]

@monothingie makes a good point, DCL6 and DCL7 could be at risk.

DCL prints money (2019 profits were $100M per ship) and is way, way below the number of ships it could support.

I could see them canceling park stuff and marginal video content but canceling cruise ships seems extremely unlikely to me.

 

[wdwmagic]

 

[lentesta]

Was he part of the WDI layoffs in 2020/21?

I think he retired. I can ask.

 

[mightynine]

I have a sneaking suspicion that the initial plans for the Lake Nona complex will ultimately be scaled back significantly.

I mean, the Odyssey building isn't being used at the moment. Think of the cost savings!

 

[monothingie]

It seems more like they won’t be able to get Lake Nona physically finished till at least 2024-5?.

They can’t move people to a construction site.

Seems like the only thing that happened was they were a victim of inadequate planning and shortages.

 

[el_super]

They can’t move people to a construction site.

Of the people I talked to, that were informed their positions were moving, they were either told that a space would be available in CA for them until the new campus was ready, or that temp space would be available in Florida if they wanted to move now.

They still have office space here, there, and everywhere around Orlando and Kissimmee and Celebration. Moreso now that people are working remote and/or hybrid.

The construction of the new campus was always expected to take a couple years, so the "pause" has to be noteworthy for other reasons.

 

[monothingie]

The construction of the new campus was always expected to take a couple years, so the "pause" has to be noteworthy for other reasons

Yea to be completed by 2023-2024.


The pause appears to be in relocations caused by delays in construction. Construction is still progressing as far as we know. I think people are wanting to make much more of this than what actually is. It’s no secret that shortages and supply chain issues are causing massive delays in the building industry.

 

[Comped]

@monothingie makes a good point, DCL6 and DCL7 could be at risk.

Almost no chance. DCL needs the expansion almost more than any other Cruise line purely because of demand, and these ships will be able to have additional revenue just for being new ships... No chance it happens unless we see other cruise lines start canceling their ships or delaying them.

Yea to be completed by 2023-2024.


The pause appears to be in relocations caused by delays in construction. Construction is still progressing as far as we know. I think people are wanting to make much more of this than what actually is. It’s no secret that shortages and supply chain issues are causing massive delays in the building industry.

From what I've heard, it is a construction related delay more so than a calculated move. Disney is still very much interested in those tax breaks, and as those tax breaks are contingent on the Lake Nona project being completed with certain milestones in terms of how many employees are moved... It will happen. Recession or not.

 

[flynnibus]

throwing your entire organization and people into a tailspin for a construction delay sounds improbable. Instead you would simply find alternate options to locate the people until your buildings were ready. Unless you were talking about something that could not be replicated or temporarily put off (think.. unique equipment) you'd just house people in different places temporarily.

The human casualty cost of aborting a relocation after it's started has to far outweigh simple real estate issues.

 

[lazyboy97o]

throwing your entire organization and people into a tailspin for a construction delay sounds improbable. Instead you would simply find alternate options to locate the people until your buildings were ready. Unless you were talking about something that could not be replicated or temporarily put off (think.. unique equipment) you'd just house people in different places temporarily.

The human casualty cost of aborting a relocation after it's started has to far outweigh simple real estate issues.

Especially a group like Walt Disney Imagineering whom Disney has no issue sticking into trailers for years.

 

[ScoutN]

DCL prints money (2019 profits were $100M per ship) and is way, way below the number of ships it could support.

I could see them canceling park stuff and marginal video content but canceling cruise ships seems extremely unlikely to me.

Agreed, all the way. The wait and haggle the price down plan cost them more and a later spot in the build schedule last time. No chance a ship gets bumped. Reduction in rates means less than having less bar and merchandise sales onboard. Good grief, the ATM of the DCL ships on booze sales has to make the EPCOT festival booze sales seem like chump change.

 

[monothingie]

throwing your entire organization and people into a tailspin for a construction delay sounds improbable

Welcome to the new normal. For people in the construction industry it is a reality. $millions and millions in delays caused by this.

Personally I have large projects delayed over a year because they can't get building materials and building systems equipment delivered in a timely manner. When you're looking at 12-18 months to get elevators, Fire Alarms, lighting, HVAC Rooftop equipment, and chillers, you don't really have much of a choice.

 

[monothingie]

Agreed, all the way. The wait and haggle the price down plan cost them more and a later spot in the build schedule last time. No chance a ship gets bumped. Reduction in rates means less than having less bar and merchandise sales onboard. Good grief, the ATM of the DCL ships on booze sales has to make the EPCOT festival booze sales seem like chump change.

The price of building a cruise ship has most likely shot up a considerable amount. Building a new "Wish" today could easily cost them 30% more.

First rule of digging yourself out of financial hole is to stop digging.

 

[donsullivan]

throwing your entire organization and people into a tailspin for a construction delay sounds improbable. Instead you would simply find alternate options to locate the people until your buildings were ready. Unless you were talking about something that could not be replicated or temporarily put off (think.. unique equipment) you'd just house people in different places temporarily.

The human casualty cost of aborting a relocation after it's started has to far outweigh simple real estate issues.

The delays in delivery of construction materials of all kinds are beyond measure right now. Projects in Orlando are getting delayed for over a year for things like power transformers. Steel delays on stuff ordered before pandemic are pushing out 12-15 months from schedule. If you are just ordering now, you are going to be way out there on the calendar for actual delivery of key construction materials- it's jut the way it is right no.
Nobody would be 'trying' to throw things into chaos, the materials are simply not available pushing schedules all over the place.

 

[flynnibus]

Welcome to the new normal. For people in the construction industry it is a reality. $millions and millions in delays caused by this.

Personally I have large projects delayed over a year because they can't get building materials and building systems equipment delivered in a timely manner. When you're looking at 12-18 months to get elevators, Fire Alarms, lighting, HVAC Rooftop equipment, and chillers, you don't really have much of a choice.

Except we're not talking about needing buildings from scratch to be the alternative. Plenty of DIsney stuff and leasing ability around.