On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not necessarily -- DS and his lovely wife are bailing on her parents' DVC trip next month (giving up a week of free lodging) because Florida is a huge hot spot right now.

For them, at least, it's self-preservation, not park reservation.

I think...and this may not be their fault...people inside the current hot zones are completely oblivious.

I’m in the most Disney crazed (per capita) area in perhaps the universe...
...and the concept of going there, wearing masks, dealing with quarantines and potentially starting a flashpoint upon return is completely repulsive. Even those booked (including probably me) are fine forfeiting the points. I’m shocked at how “unified” those sentiments seem to be.

 

[easyrowrdw]

It’s the park reservation system that’s killing attendance, not that folks don’t want to go in my opinion. Even if you book a room on site, you are not guaranteed into a Park, never mind the park you want to go to on a given day.

Park reservations for resort guests are available for every park from now until the end of the system in September 2021.

 

[DCBaker]

Park reservations for resort guests are available for every park from now until the end of the system in September 2021.

Almost

 

[easyrowrdw]

Almost

View attachment 490188

That's odd. It was showing me green for every day. Thanks for the correction.

 

[Frank the Tank]

I think...and this may not be their fault...people inside the current hot zones are completely oblivious.

I’m in the most Disney crazed (per capita) area in perhaps the universe...
...and the concept of going there, wearing masks, dealing when quarantines and potentially starting a flashpoint upon return is completely repulsive. Even those booked (including probably me) are fine forfeiting the points. I’m shocked at how “untied” those sentiments seem to be.

Yes, I'm getting that feeling about the "bubble" mentality. I live in the Chicago area and the fact that Florida is a hot spot is by FAR the #1 reason why there hasn't been any uptick in interest in traveling to WDW. (FWIW, we cancelled a WDW trip that was scheduled for the end of July.) It's not about having to wear masks or the pricing or the reservation system or that there aren't fireworks shows. It's simply that people aren't interested in traveling to a place that puts them at a high risk of getting COVID-19.

Separately, anyone that believes that discounting ticket prices will drive more attendance isn't looking at the macro picture. Since Florida is a hot spot (and America as a whole is a hot spot compared to the rest of the world), the current demand for WDW tickets is inelastic. That is, you could drop WDW ticket prices to near $0 and it likely wouldn't change the demand to go to the parks. With the mix of the health crisis plus economic problems, the fact of the matter is that pricing has very little to do with why people aren't going to WDW or other theme parks. The people that are still coming to WDW are so committed that they'd be willing to come at any price and, in turn, the people that aren't coming to WDW are in circumstances where they *won't* be willing to come at any price for the foreseeable future. As a result, it makes no sense for WDW to lower ticket prices from a rational economic perspective since they'd just be getting less revenue from the small number of people that would be willing to pay full price while not attracting many/any of that much larger number of people that aren't willing to travel regardless of the price.

 

[robhedin]

Yes, I'm getting that feeling about the "bubble" mentality. I live in the Chicago area and the fact that Florida is a hot spot is by FAR the #1 reason why there hasn't been any uptick in interest in traveling to WDW. (FWIW, we cancelled a WDW trip that was scheduled for the end of July.) It's not about having to wear masks or the pricing or the reservation system or that there aren't fireworks shows. It's simply that people aren't interested in traveling to a place that puts them at a high risk of getting COVID-19.

Separately, anyone that believes that discounting ticket prices will drive more attendance isn't looking at the macro picture. Since Florida is a hot spot (and America as a whole is a hot spot compared to the rest of the world), the current demand for WDW tickets is inelastic. That is, you could drop WDW ticket prices to near $0 and it likely wouldn't change the demand to go to the parks. With the mix of the health crisis plus economic problems, the fact of the matter is that pricing has very little to do with why people aren't going to WDW or other theme parks. The people that are still coming to WDW are so committed that they'd be willing to come at any price and, in turn, the people that aren't coming to WDW are in circumstances where they *won't* be willing to come at any price for the foreseeable future. As a result, it makes no sense for WDW to lower ticket prices from a rational economic perspective since they'd just be getting less revenue from the small number of people that would be willing to pay full price while not attracting many/any of that much larger number of people that aren't willing to travel regardless of the price.

I really don't think this is so clearly cut and dry. I'm sure there is some percentage of people that feel that way, just as I'm sure that there are a percentage that feel differently. You can see this acting out today by the people protesting about schools not being open, for example.

I'm seeing a number of people traveling (by car) to various places, including various portions of Florida even today. Only a small portion of them are going to Disney, primarily because of price/value. I'm talking people that are relatively affluent, earning over $150k/year.

There's another group of people that are in severe save mode because they've been furloughed and are soon to be laid off and while they would like to go places are more worried about paying the bills.

Yet another group is very concerned about contracting covid, and don't want to go to those places.

I can't really say how many people fall into each group, but I'm certain there's more than one group. Disney, unfortunately, is in the position of having to navigate this mess.

 

[Mr Mindcrime]

1. Fear
2. Money
3. Hurdles

This ^^^

 

[Disstevefan1]

Maybe a small part of it but as I said in a previous post, my wife has lost almost 20 client trips over the next three months and not one has said it’s about park reservations. They just don’t want to fly and spend the money for limited experiences. That is 95% of what she’s hearing.

The limited experience is a huge factor! I guess the park reservation system just contributes to the limited experience.

I just don’t think the parks problem is due to IGER the parks problem is due to COVID.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Over 70% of the country in research is not comfortable going to that type of environment at present.

It’s your opinion...but I’m not sure it’s one of your best.

1. Fear
2. Money
3. Hurdles

This is just speculation, but if APs were not limited and could reserve any day and as many days they wanted, the parks would hit their limited capacity. Instead APs were given a small pool of days and can only hold thee at any one time.

Another huge factor is the travel ban from international countries! That’s huge! ... Oh wait, that’s Fun Spot

 

[Lilofan]

This is just speculation, but if APs were not limited and could reserve any day and as many days they wanted, the parks would hit their limited capacity. Instead APs were given a small pool of days and can only hold thee at any one time.

Another huge factor is the travel ban from international countries! That’s huge! ... Oh wait, that’s Fun Spot

International Drive in Orlando is ground zero for international tourists. Will be interesting what businesses will be left existing in a few months. Locals and domestic tourists don't have the spending power to support.

 

[Heppenheimer]

It’s the park reservation system that’s killing attendance, not that folks don’t want to go in my opinion. Even if you book a room on site, you are not guaranteed into a Park, never mind the park you want to go to on a given day.

Just a small segment of the population, but I work with a bunch of people who are Disney-obsessed. I did a quick query. Nobody, including myself, was even aware of the park reservation system. We couldn't care less, since the other reasons for not traveling right now are so overwhelming. These include, in order:

1) Not wanting to risk traveling to COVID-Central.

2) The post-trip 14 day quarantine requirement.

3) The above two reasons repeated ad infinitum.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is just speculation, but if APs were not limited and could reserve any day and as many days they wanted, the parks would hit their limited capacity. Instead APs were given a small pool of days and can only hold thee at any one time.

Another huge factor is the travel ban from international countries! That’s huge! ... Oh wait, that’s Fun Spot

The majority of wdw clientele is from the east coast and upper Midwest of the US.

Out of towners...not Florida res...not APs...not overseas international travelers.

I think I see a slight problem with you’re “the people WANT to come back” approach.

They really don’t.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just a small segment of the population, but I work with a bunch of people who are Disney-obsessed. I did a quick query. Nobody, including myself, was even aware of the park reservation system. We couldn't care less, since the other reasons for not traveling right now are so overwhelming. These include, in order:

1) Not wanting to risk traveling to COVID-Central.

2) The post-trip 14 day quarantine requirement.

3) The above two reasons repeated ad infinitum.

...It’s amazing how many people can give the same story and still have it rejected outright.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Park reservations for resort guests are available for every park from now until the end of the system in September 2021.

Hmmmm...might have something to do with the lack of resort guests?

I could post the DVC calendar...but that seems redundant.

 

[Jrb1979]

I don't know about the rest of you but I'm already taking advantage of the theme parks troubles. When Disney drops it's prices enough I will return to empty parks, the way I like it. I have already been to Universal and bought AP's with an extra 3 months added to them. AP hotel rooms have drop price wise going into the fall, I'm booked for at least one stay in November. Universal's high end hotels are cheap now, if the price goes down from here I just cancel, re-book at cheaper price.

Buy when blood is in the streets. Goes for just about anything.

I feel the same way. Just wish more people would support some of the other great amusement parks in the US that are open.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Here is an odd Fact. Our real estate market around HHI, SC has gone crazy, houses are selling with nothing more then internet pictures. Who's buying, big city northeastern middle aged people, they are fleeing the north. Specifically Bluffton, SC and surrounding areas. It's getting crazy in the building and buying older homes. I'm wondering if that plays into people not going to Disney? The whole South seems to have lit up real estate wise. I had a friend in Orlando just sold his house for $649K in 3 days, full price offer. It's a house that was built in the 50's, it's been remodeled but I'm surprised someone went full offer that quick.

The foreigners can't come to Orlando.
The northeastern people seem to be too busy looking for new places to live to go on vacation right now?
Add to that many people who are having money problems or will in the near future.

I don't doubt Orlando in general will have a hard time business wise for the next year or two? Realize Disney is getting hit on all fronts. Movies, TV, think ESPN, cruise ships, theme parks. They need to cut back on spending one way or another and in a big way across the board.

Thats owners trying to dump before the crash and buyers being enticed by near zero interest rates. It’s pretty widespread.

Banks...still serving as high level drug dealers in a commission system...oblige as usual.

Very little different from the housing bubble except it isn’t subprime focused.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't know about the rest of you but I'm already taking advantage of the theme parks troubles. When Disney drops it's prices enough I will return to empty parks, the way I like it. I have already been to Universal and bought AP's with an extra 3 months added to them. AP hotel rooms have drop price wise going into the fall, I'm booked for at least one stay in November. Universal's high end hotels are cheap now, if the price goes down from here I just cancel, re-book at cheaper price.

Buy when blood is in the streets. Goes for just about anything.

Disney is actually guarding Against being “taken advantage of”...and I think that’s iger’s long game.

Low crowds are fine...but they NEED to feel the financial pain and have to take it on the nose during recessions. It’s an important market mechanism that has always served the consumer.

Let em bleed.

 

[John Kelly]

As a side note, I was wondering when those price increases were going to catch up with Disney - especially considering their irresponsible attitude of making everything IP / some form of advertisement and sacrificing quality. It was only a matter of time.

I fully agree.... they got so greedy and arrogant!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No not at all. These people have money. From what I have seen many people who are retirement age/eligible are the ones fleeing.

My neighbor down the road owns a mortgage broker business and let me tell you the good ole' days of zero down aren't gone. They have been using a program that is supposed to help farmers, USDA loans. https://www.rd.usda.gov/programs-services/single-family-housing-guaranteed-loan-program

That's not what is going on right now. The buyers at least here are full on cash or finance only if they find it useful.

Well then that’s subprime...

And it’s the banks in a rush to score now...

And it won’t end well. Past is prologue

 

[UNCgolf]

Well then that’s subprime...

And it’s the banks in a rush to score now...

And it won’t end well. Past is prologue

I actually don't think it's related to any of that. People from the northeast have been moving near beaches in the south for many years now.

The golf course communities with housing in the Myrtle Beach area (not just Myrtle Beach, they're up the NC coastline as well) are filled with people from New York and New Jersey (not exclusively from there, but they're the majority) who moved there after retiring. Most of those purchases were made in the 10-15 years; there's a place a bit inland from my family's beach house in NC that has gone from no houses at all about 20 years ago to several hundred homes now, and that place is just one of many similar ones in the area -- in fact, a developer just purchased about 250 acres around another set of courses and the lots are selling so quickly that they've already started constructing dozens of homes. The people buying these places are generally using savings to purchase the homes rather than taking out huge mortgages.

Bluffton, as he mentioned, is at Hilton Head, so I'm sure things are similar there.