On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

[SteamboatJoe]

My reference is specifically the northeast, where several of the cities are expected to show population declines by the end of the year.

Obviously I missed that part. Gotcha.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's amazing how many people extrapolate their locality to the entire nation too! I'm sure that people that live in the NE and MW, or really anywhere that you really need to fly to get to WDW/Florida, are much less likely to come. At the same time, I'm not seeing that in GA; I spoke with some friends in Raleigh last night who are driving to Florida next week to go to Daytona for a reptile show (they wanted to spend a day at Disney, but saw the restrictions and decided to just stay at the beach) . Another couple of couples who are going on a trip together are headed to Destin. If you're "nearby", the equation changes somewhat.

That said, I fully agree that the equation is changed, even for them-- even though I took about 10 days when WDW opened, I'm only going for a long weekend at the end of the month (8/28-UOR,8/29-MK,8/30-Discovery Cove,8/31-DHS) and I'm not staying at a Disney resort because it's not worth the added cost vs the competition. Most others I know that are/do go down now (whether to the panhandle/beaches or central florida) are also going for a shorter time and not staying on property (except for one person who owns DVC). While we will spend (we averaged around $140/day per person on food and stuff in the parks for the 3 days we were able to get a park reservation at Disney last month), that's not to the same level as someone who flies in for a week.

...you’re in a hot zone. And one that sorta chose to be one...following the C Student pied piper.

I hate to bring up that being a thing...but it is a thing. Same with Florida

And the money and demographics of travelers to Florida and wdw...are what they are. They are heavily weighted.

I know a guy...couple of kids (who have been there dozens of times), bought DVC in his 20’s, APs....like a good wdw bar....pays the redonkulous menu prices at the sitdowns as the preferred dining style.

That’s what wdw needs and in large numbers. Wherever they come from...but they know there’s a geographical distribution that’s completely disrupted.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So true I know many families that have flown to Disney for week long trips, extended weekends, two that are going next week while kids are in virtual school and do school from the resorts.

How many?

Like 55,000,000 gate clicks worth?

...didn’t I warn you about peeing into the wind? Nothing will change in Florida until US domestic travel is back on track. Don’t look for Disney to start being accommodating. That’s no longer their style.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And I saw NJ has one of the highest real estate bankruptcies in the nation. One wonders why.. Paying a half million for a fixer upper? No thanks.

...because it’s going like the real estate bubble again...

Which is what I was sorta saying before it went into a “regional” back and forth.

It has the same kinda feel right now...lots of “gotta get something!” And big numbers/bidding wars talked about.
But it’s smoke around a fire that’s going out. I wouldn’t be so confident in my assessment if I hadn’t lived through this exact same thing. It has the feel of august 2008...ironically...just no stock implications this time.

 

[UNCgolf]

Mmmm...

Not that I’m doubting the situation on the Ground...but there’s a mixed message here. Cash buyers don’t fit the previous description of somehow “clueless” that was portrayed. I guess I missed that?

Anyway...I’ve been hearing about “booms” in the Carolinas since I was a kid...it’s always “Florida life”.

Doesn’t really make sense that it’s “taking hold” now. Really doesn’t. This too shall pass.

I don't think it's a boom now; it's just standard life. It's been happening for 20 years and didn't even slow down that much during the housing crisis -- they certainly weren't building as many houses, but people from the northeast were still coming down and moving into apartments or condos.

It is really ramping up at the moment, though. I just read the other day that Myrtle Beach has been one of the two or three fastest growing metro areas in the country for several years in a row now, almost entirely from northeastern retirees. 15-20,000 people having been moving down yearly. I don't really understand it, because I can't imagine wanting to live in Myrtle Beach, but I'm not sure how wide a net they're casting for the metro area. I don't think it extends up into the NC coast, where it's much quieter and I can definitely see the appeal, but that would also mean the number of people moving down is even larger than reported.

 

[UNCgolf]

I read brand new beautiful condos at Bluffton, SC for $500K that may get you a fixed upper home in parts of the Northeast. It's a probably an enclave of many from the North coming down purchasing with cash. If one thinks the pizza, bagels and Chinese food are the same quality from up North, one is in for a big surprise.

That's exactly why so many people are buying/building houses near my family beach house. They can get a 2,000+ sqft 4 bedroom home for like $350-400k.

The bagels and Chinese food are one thing, but the pizza is another entirely. I've spent a lot of time in NYC and there's an Italian restaurant in Ocean Isle Beach, NC that has better pizza than anything I've ever had in New York. To be fair, it's not exactly the same style as typical New York pizza (which is very good too), but I've always thought the whole New York pizza love was nothing more than hometown bias. I've had better pizza in other places.

 

[carolina_yankee]

And I saw NJ has one of the highest real estate bankruptcies in the nation. One wonders why.. Paying a half million for a fixer upper? No thanks.

I can't speak to the bankruptcies, but it's possible (likely) to buy quite a nice home for $500,000 or less in much of the state. Spitting distance of NY or on the shore? Perhaps not, but where I live in Monmouth County ( a wealthy county), $500k is not getting you a fixer upper but a decent home.

For the reverse, $600k or so will get you my step-mother's 1959 double split level, which you will then raze and replace with a McMansion. But you'll be 20 minutes closer to the water and on a train line for NYC so no need to take the bus.

With regard to anecdotal Disney support, several DVC members in our area might go to Disney if restrictions were lifted, but I'm surprised at how COVID shy people are. The general assumption seems to be "the world will kill you." I wouldn't be surprised if there is some shell-shock going on in NJ, which makes me think travel will take awhile to come back - vaccine awhile.

 

[_caleb]

That's exactly why so many people are buying/building houses near my family beach house. They can get a 2,000 sqft 4 bedroom home for like $350-400k.

The bagels and Chinese food are one thing, but the pizza is another entirely. I've spent a lot of time in NYC and there's an Italian restaurant in Ocean Isle Beach, NC that has better pizza than anything I've ever had in New York. To be fair, it's not exactly the same style as typical New York pizza (which is very good too), but I've always thought the whole New York pizza love was nothing more than hometown bias. I've had better pizza in several other places.

What Italian restaurant in Ocean Isle?

 

[Lilofan]

I can't speak to the bankruptcies, but it's possible (likely) to buy quite a nice home for $500,000 or less in much of the state. Spitting distance of NY or on the shore? Perhaps not, but where I live in Monmouth County ( a wealthy county), $500k is not getting you a fixer upper but a decent home.

For the reverse, $600k or so will get you my step-mother's 1959 double split level, which you will then raze and replace with a McMansion. But you'll be 20 minutes closer to the water and on a train line for NYC so no need to take the bus.

With regard to anecdotal Disney support, several DVC members in our area might go to Disney if restrictions were lifted, but I'm surprised at how COVID shy people are. The general assumption seems to be "the world will kill you." I wouldn't be surprised if there is some shell-shock going on in NJ, which makes me think travel will take awhile to come back - vaccine awhile.

I know some who live in nearby NJ. The insane property taxes that they pay and the town still has a volunteer ambulance / fire dept. ??

 

[UNCgolf]

What Italian restaurant in Ocean Isle?

Roberto's.

When I was a little kid it was actually just a small counter service pizza place in a strip mall, but they built an actual restaurant probably 25 years ago and the pizza is still amazing (a lot of their other food is pretty good too). The only downside is that it's not my favorite type of crust, but the sauce, cheese, etc. is so incredibly good that it doesn't even matter. I do wonder if the quality is lessened when people are trying to order it in the middle of summer at 6 PM and it's a two+ hour wait, though.

Also, to amend my previous statement about NYC pizza -- I think the difference with NYC is there's a tremendous quantity of good pizza. You can duck into just about any random place and get a very good slice. That's not true in most places; there's certainly some awful pizza here in Atlanta. You can't just expect it to be good anywhere you go like you can in New York. But there are individual places scattered around that are just as good or better than anything I've had in NYC.

 

[sfbntpc]

Here is an odd Fact. Our real estate market around HHI, SC has gone crazy, houses are selling with nothing more then internet pictures. Who's buying, big city northeastern middle aged people, they are fleeing the north. Specifically Bluffton, SC and surrounding areas. It's getting crazy in the building and buying older homes. I'm wondering if that plays into people not going to Disney? The whole South seems to have lit up real estate wise. I had a friend in Orlando just sold his house for $649K in 3 days, full price offer. It's a house that was built in the 50's, it's been remodeled but I'm surprised someone went full offer that quick.

The foreigners can't come to Orlando.
The northeastern people seem to be too busy looking for new places to live to go on vacation right now?
Add to that many people who are having money problems or will in the near future.

I don't doubt Orlando in general will have a hard time business wise for the next year or two? Realize Disney is getting hit on all fronts. Movies, TV, think ESPN, cruise ships, theme parks. They need to cut back on spending one way or another and in a big way across the board.

Same thing here in the Hampton Roads area and especially Williamsburg.

 

[UNCgolf]

Real Estate is hot everywhere, it has nothing to do with the South. It's hot in the northeast too, where you say people are fleeing from.

Yeah, I don't think it's "fleeing the north". I think it's mostly retirees (at least for the areas I'm most familiar with) from the northeast who just want to be close to a beach with warmer weather for their retirement. Same thing that's been happening in Florida for ages and is just happening a lot more in NC/SC this century as well.

 

[Lilofan]

Yeah, I don't think it's "fleeing the north". I think it's mostly retirees (at least for the areas I'm most familiar with) from the northeast who just want to be close to a beach with warmer weather for their retirement. Same thing that's been happening in Florida for ages and is just happening a lot more in NC/SC this century as well.

Some I know do it to live better in their later years. Sell your million dollar home up North, move South pay cash for the home then play golf and enjoy the beach in their later years. Sounds like a good plan to me.

 

[UNCgolf]

Some I know do it to live better in their later years. Sell your million dollar home up North, move South pay cash for the home then play golf and enjoy the beach in their later years. Sounds like a good plan to me.

Yep, exactly. That's why, as I mentioned above, homes are being built left and right in all the golf course communities near my beach.

The courses themselves often hire the retirees to work as rangers and starters too. They get to make a little extra income and get reduced rates/special privileges to play at the course.

I play a lot of golf in that area, and I'd say 90% of the starters at golf courses are retirees from New York or New Jersey.

 

[carolina_yankee]

I know some who live in nearby NJ. The insane property taxes that they pay and the town still has a volunteer ambulance / fire dept. ??

Yeah, no defense on that.

Still, a fair amount of disposable income for "NJ Week" to be a thing at WDW, which likely won't happen this year for both income and pandemic reasons.

WDW isn't pricing me out of the market, but the pandemic has gotten me to completely re-evaluate my relationship with Disney. I'm a DVC owner, two contracts bought direct, and have zero plans to return to any Disney park in the next 20 months at least, and possibly years. It's not Disney's fault, per se, but I want more control and more options in my life during uncertain times and being tied to Disney doesn't give one that.

 

[Disstevefan1]

How does the system work for APs with hotel reservations?

I've always felt that hotel reservations* should make you exempt from all blockout dates, whether you're an AP, Cast Member, or anything else. If you're paying for a week at a Disney resort, you should know you'll be able to get into the parks whether it's COVID time or "regular" time.

*Excluding the campground, otherwise you'd have passholders and cast members gobbling up cheap reservations and not even staying there, just to get into the parks.

Well, yes if a AP buys a room on site, they now have access to the (green) resort guest calendar. Yes this allows an AP who doesn’t (or can’t) wait a month to schedule a day on the AP calendar, can now pick from the resort calendar. I (think) one day at a resort gives you two days to reserve, check in day and check out day.

I guess many will feel this is totally fair; an AP whose ticket (ordinarily should) get them into the park must now buy a room to get into the park.

Well, it does make Disney money.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Some I know do it to live better in their later years. Sell your million dollar home up North, move South pay cash for the home then play golf and enjoy the beach in their later years. Sounds like a good plan to me.

They're also moving to rural areas here up north, so it's not just a dash to the south.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They're also moving to rural areas here up north, so it's not just a dash to the south.

Covid is causing a rethinking of the Urban environment around major cities...that’s been pretty well reported. That a reverse of the millennial movement pattern of the last 20 years or so.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well, yes if a AP buys a room on site, they now have access to the (green) resort guest calendar. Yes this allows an AP who doesn’t (or can’t) wait a month to schedule a day on the AP calendar, can now pick from the resort calendar. I (think) one day at a resort gives you two days to reserve, check in day and check out day.

I guess many will feel this is totally fair; an AP whose ticket (ordinarily should) get them into the park must now buy a room to get into the park.

Well, it does make Disney money.

This is where we fundamentally disagree. Having a limited number of locals, APs and “damn the torpedoes” regional travelers is not gonna make them money. It’s not a 1:1 scenario. They don’t make money off selling a Mickey plush...they make it Off selling 1,000. You have to first outrun the overhead costs.

That’s the model. That’s the framework. Can’t flip a switch now.

If you consider that...limiting cms and APs makes complete sense. They’d just be increasing their overhead to accommodate them and never get over the top.

This is gonna take awhile even if things go better than they have. And that’s assuming this ridiculous “v-shaped recovery” nonsense goes (it won’t)...

The canary in the coal mine to me is the recall of college program...things won’t be close to normal till that happens.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Covid is causing a rethinking of the Urban environment around major cities...that’s been pretty well reported. That a reverse of the millennial movement pattern of the last 20 years or so.

The weird part is that companies aren't catching up. Everyone who works for a "city office" company is working from home and will likely be working from home for the next year, if not forever. But nobody has bothered to tell the recruiters, so companies filling open positions are still filling them as if you need to relocate to Manhattan or San Francisco or wherever.