ok, all you Punxsutaweny Phils of Disney world, what's your prediction for the future of WDW?

[KevinPage]

I’m happy with anything that begins or ends with: “Bob Chapek is moving on”

 

[ddbowdoin]

My flight over to that neck of the woods usually costs more. 13 hours is insanity. By hour 7 and a half, I'm thinking of jumping. Europe I can manage because I know the flight is almost over. But when it's hour 7 and you have 8,9,10 hours to go....your mind starts messing with you.

For that reason it's over to LAX for a night or two and then over to HNL for another 2 or 3 nights. I'll get there eventually.

I did Boston to Beijing direct... 15 hours. To put some perspective on that, I watched two films and then slept for 6 hours... leaving myself enough time to watch another 2 full movies and a bit left over to sit in and reconsider my life choices.

China... fun.

The flight, no.

On a side note, squatting pans ruined Asia for me.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Do you know how much it costs to fly to Japan?!

It's not cheap, but neither are WDW Deluxe hotels and week-long hopper tickets.

 

[NickMaio]

I feel a recession is on the horizon, I hope there isn't one, but if you follow the markers it seems one is coming. At that time I think Disney will have to re-balance their prices on all things related to parks. Of course this will go for all amusement properties not Disney. I don't feel it will be the same scope of the 2007 recession, but, it wont just be a slow down.

This re-balance may come in the form of just deep discounts and than brought back to full scale afterwards or actual cost cutting.

I don't see Disney going belly up in the near term or even in the next decade. Even today children are growing up with Disney in their face (movies, shows, etc) and they will be the customers of the future. Todays surge I think is because of all the big movies we all grew up with in the 90's and 00's. We are all now all grownd upped now (yes that was on purpose), and spending our money to relive or past memories, experience and be part of the movies we loved and to share all that with our children. Well that is many of you are sharing with your children, I don have any.

There is less attachment to other parks, other than HP at Universal, which will play a big part in it's future.

Honestly - - - - -Even if it did happen. I do not see DIS lowering or adjusting their current pricing trend of sky high. I feel that the type of client that they are after is the kind that would not be affected by any recession. They are after the top 20-25% income earners. Recession proof kind of people. I feel these price jumps are part of a bigger strategy. Also a lot of greed

 

[lindawdw]

I do believe that more and more people will put their trips on credit and then pay them off over time because they want their Disney fix. With the parks being as packed as they are even with continuous price increases, I just haven't seen it impact attendance at all. Being a DVC member, I will probably always have a Disney trip on the horizon, but it might be that one day in the future, I will not buy a park pass and just learn to enjoy the things outside the parks themselves such as the resorts and restaurants.

 

[Kingtut]

So let's say in 5 years....

If the world is out pricing the middle class will the parks be empty?
Will they sell off the parks?
Will they be just like a state carnival or you local mall (which seems to be a popular criticism. i've never been to a state fair so this one intrigues me)?
Is there a possibility that they shut down totally?
Will they go on just as they are?

lol, I meant to attach a poll to make it a bit easier but hit post instead.

My amazing accurate prediction is that at some point Disney will sell the parks to someone who wants them or spin them off into a new company. The parks are a cash cow that prints money for Disney at the present but at some point in the future I foresee diminishing returns due to circumstances ( 9/11 , war, illness, major recession, green aliens land) at that point the Disney management will want to rid them themselves of the capital intensive park operations and focus solely on their media empire.

My second guaranteed prediction ( if my first one does not come to pass ) is that there will be a downturn eventually and Disney once again will be a takeover target ( I am old enough to remember at least 3 times where there was serious interest and there are probably more times that I am not aware of). At their size probably not one company but something along the lines of Company A ( Apple , Facebook) wants media library and Company B ( Comcast, Cedar Fair) wants parks and Company C wants DCL. Don't pick on me for the example companies my thought s were just those that were big enough to want a piece of Disney and I'm not suggesting that there is any real discussion going on at the current time.

 

[tl77]

I'm waiting to see what they announce at D23 this year, the last one was disappointing, annoying, and aggravating for me. They keep watering down the parks with "new brands" meant to appeal to a broader audience, which is turning me off. I don't care enough about Avatar to spend any real time in that land, as pretty as it is, I just have no emotional connection to it like I do with the Hand Drawn Disney Animation that my family and I grew up with. Star Wars Land is based on these new... and kinda mediocre films, but if they weren't trying so hard to "pretend it's a real place" set in a specific time period, and you could still see the classic characters like Darth Vader, Boba Fett, and Jabba the Hutt, along side the new characters there, the same way Snow White and Ariel, Aladdin and Jack Sparrow, all "co-exist" in the Magic Kingdom, I'd be a lot more excited about Star Wars land.

We're considering selling off our DVC membership, which we've had for over 25 years, because it's just not the same place anymore. Talk of removing the Tiki Birds and Country Bears? The new "Ren & Stimpy" style Mickey Mouse... that's getting a ride in the Chinese Theater?
They're removing "classic stuff" to make way for "flash in the pan" stuff just to make a buck "right now". It's just getting way to damn expensive to go to a place that makes your heart ache for "the good old days". I'm just not interested in going to see the "Flea Market of Popular Culture" that "Walt Disney's World" is slowly turning into

 

[OG Runner]

I predict WDW will continue to take my money, though their pricing keep going up. "Hi! My name is Ed and I am a Disney addict."

 

[Kingtut]

Yup, just shows you that the people paying $4400 shouldn't be doing the numbers for Disney World.

Won't flights be cheaper since we won't be using any fossil fuel in our airplanes by then?

 

[Disstevefan1]

To reply to the OP. My predictions are -
No 5th park
Housekeeping at resorts will end.
Free dining will end
You will pay to park at Disney Springs, and the parking fees there will continue to increase.
You must pay for all transportation; Magical Express, buses, monorail, ferries, gondolas, etc
Ticket prices will continue to increase
The number of blackout dates for APs will continue to increase
You will pay for Fast Passes
Standby wait times will continue to increase
EPCOT food booths will remain open year round.
The number of DVC resorts will continue to increase
Room rates will continue to increase
Resort fees will continue to increase
Parking fees in both resorts and parks will continue to increase
Food prices will continue to increase
The price for the dining plans will continue to increase, while at the same time, food choice and quality will continue to go down
The day ticket operating hours will continue to decrease
The number of hard ticket events and desert parties will continue to increase
The Hot cheese will return to Pacos Bills!

And last but not least, the CROWDS will continue to increase

 

[nj_to_wdw]

For what it's worth, I think WDW will end up being the choice for companies to "buy out" for their executives and families as a perk, or to highlight a new product launch, or for "team bonding". Or middle class folks who get taken there by their more wealthy parents or grandparents, or the 1% and their families whenever they feel like it. I think it will move away from being "retail" and become more "wholesale". I think this is why the emphasis on branding and the continual escalation of prices and addition of extra charges. The Disney Experience will normally get consumed by folks who really don't care about cost, and simultaneously that will serve to keep the crowds away or minimized. And the number of children who get to enjoy WDW will be far less, but that wouldn't have bothered Walt, right (???).

 

[mdcpr]

To reply to the OP. My predictions are -
No 5th park
Housekeeping at resorts will end.
You will pay to park at Disney Springs, and the parking fees there will continue to increase.
You must pay for all transportation; Magical Express, buses, monorail, ferries, gondolas, etc
Ticket prices will continue to increase
The number of blackout dates for APs will continue to increase
You will pay for Fast Passes
EPCOT food booths will remain open year round.
The number of DVC resorts will continue to increase
Room rates will continue to increase
Resort fees will continue to increase
Parking fees in both resorts and parks continue to increase
Food prices will continue to increase
The price for the dining plans will continue to increase, while at the same time, food choice and quality will continue to go down
The day ticket operating hours will continue to decrease
The number of hard ticket events and desert parties will continue to increase
The Hot cheese will return to Pacos Bills!

And last but not least, the CROWDS will continue to increase

Good list. Just some comments.
- Housekeeping will only be at the Deluxe resorts
- There will be a 'transportation package', i.e. Monorail, Disney Express, Bus...

 

[networkpro]

Its too early for all of that...

But I think that the “traditional” theme park business will be altered greatly in 20 or so years...for better or worse.

I think Disney has removed a lot of the policies and safeguards that allows them to stay stable through economic cycles and that will have longterm consequences

What's your take on their financial exposure for DVC ? During the 2008 economic downturn, there were a bunch of repos by Disney from those who financed their timeshares via HELOC or 2nd mortgages. DVC doesnt get the maintenance funds from those and the carry shifts back to the Disney company. Of course Disney can re-sale them, but in a downturn the market isnt that good for that product.

 

[Trackmaster]

I predict that the stand-by line will slowly be phased out, and Disney will make the FP+ a bigger part of the experience, or move towards a new reservation system entirely -- other than low demand rides and non-capacity experiences. I also think that hard ticket events will become the norm and a bigger part of the experience as well. Overall, WDW will move towards reservations and prior planning and less towards spur of the moment stuff.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I predict that the stand-by line will slowly be phased out, and Disney will make the FP+ a bigger part of the experience, or move towards a new reservation system entirely -- other than low demand rides and non-capacity experiences. I also think that hard ticket events will become the norm and a bigger part of the experience as well. Overall, WDW will move towards reservations and prior planning and less towards spur of the moment stuff.

It’s already close to reality...but I agree with you.

I think “block pricing” is going to be greeted with “thunderous applause” (Star Wars prequel foul on me)...

Everybody loves “experiences”...but what they’ll end up doing is paying for $300 in daily gate fees to enter parks on daily windows labeled as “special events”...

Can’t say “no” to little Hunter and Piper...it will be “non-magical”

I warned about block pricing when the Halloween and Christmas parties started getting out of hand...so like 10 years ago.
And the chicken eventually will come home.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What's your take on their financial exposure for DVC ? During the 2008 economic downturn, there were a bunch of repos by Disney from those who financed their timeshares via HELOC or 2nd mortgages. DVC doesnt get the maintenance funds from those and the carry shifts back to the Disney company. Of course Disney can re-sale them, but in a downturn the market isnt that good for that product.

Harder to gauge...

But my instincts are telling me two things:

1. They are gonna increase the price till they burn it out/dry up the lake. Management does not care nor should they due lack of proper corporate governance.
2. As has been detailed on many other topics: next generation will have a hard time affording it and they are pushing people away from the dedicated Disney park brand loyalty that caused it to sell - eventually.

That 2042 year is much larger as it grows closer...when these temporary contracts expire...they’ll lose tons of people and have to demolish the units and re-evaluate. That’s a big thing to look out for. They would have been better off making them 99 years and charging higher dues

 

[rreading]

Harder to gauge...

But my instincts are telling me two things:

1. They are gonna increase the price till they burn it out/dry up the lake. Management does not care nor should they due lack of proper corporate governance.
2. As has been detailed on many other topics: next generation will have a hard time affording it and they are pushing people away from the dedicated Disney park brand loyalty that caused it to sell - eventually.

That 2042 year is much larger as it grows closer...when these temporary contracts expire...they’ll lose tons of people and have to demolish the units and re-evaluate. That’s a big thing to look out for. They would have been better off making them 99 years and charging higher dues

Wouldn't you expect them to offer extensions as they did with SSR? If the units are decrepit then maybe demo/redo would be appropriate, but otherwise, I would expect them to keep things going.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Wouldn't you expect them to offer extensions as they did with SSR? If the units are decrepit then maybe demo/redo would be appropriate, but otherwise, I would expect them to keep things going.

They did it with Okw and it was kinda a mess

 

[rreading]

They did it with Okw and it was kinda a mess

How so? Seems like it's still there and available for use...iirc they have recently also been refreshed

 

[Janir]

To you're thread topic, WDW will continue on as is, maybe a 5th gate, maybe just more attractions in existing gates. Few more resorts. Some people will lament the changes, others will celebrate those same changes. Its mot the middle class being priced out of the world, its the middle class being shrunk in general and the people feeling the effects of the forces attempting to shrink them out of the middle class, even if they arn't gone yet. WDW will always be some sort of a destination for a ton of people and Disney will keep doing whatever the people in charge at the time think is best to extract as much $$ as they can.