We've been counting the number of guests entering both the standby line and the Lightning Lane, per hour, at key attractions.
We've seen instances where the number of guests entering the LL is:
- Equal to or greater than the number entering the standby line
- More than half of the attraction's hourly capacity
For example, at Haunted Mansion we counted roughly 1,750 guests entering the LL line in one hour, and slightly less than that entering the standby line. None of them - zero - appeared to be VIP tours.
We also think that the number of G+ reservations sold by Disney for HM is not more than 300 per hour.
So there's ~1,450 guests that are somehow using the LL line. None of them were VIP tours.
Some of them could reasonably be rider swap. But HM isn't a roller coaster and there's no height limit, so I'd expect that rider swap number to be super low.