I'm going with the first, we've heard rumor's of this since 2023.
Brayden from Mickey Views thinks it's 2years out in a recent video. Would be pretty silly to not have some major new entertainment around the time of Epic Universe's opening though.
I'll never forget seeing footage of Tokyo Disneyland Electrical Parade Dreamlights (in its original incarnation) during the early days of Youtube and being blown away at seeing a modernized version of MSEP executed perfectly. The Blue Fairy Section, The Drum Float, and The Small World Finale stuck out the most. I would totally be down on seeing an updated version of the opening section for Spectromagic and the Character Cavalcade finale any day.
I think your point is the more accurate of the two.
Disney is likely going to lose some people in 2025/2026 due to EPIC Universe. Entertainment is not going to stop that. I've never gone to Universal but have been waiting to take my son to Nintendo Land. They are going to lose a trip or part of a trip from me. The question is will EPIC be that good that I will continue to cut parts/whole Disney trips in the future? Tickets are so expensive, that economically going to one company's parks for a trip makes the most sense as discounts apply for more days. Disney needs to play for the after the first year of EPIC crowds. Which is exactly what we are seeing with the ramp of permits for MI and DAK. Late 2026 and later I think we will see more significant moves from Disney.
To me Epic Universe is only part of the problem that Disney will have with attendance and all the rest are self imposed. Granted they did a lot with Star Wars but after being dormant for a decade they are now way, way behind and the other factors like bleeding the guest of money at every turn will also take a toll that they might not ever be able to overcome. I have stated before that I have been a loyal fan and park enthusiast for over 4 decades now, but they could put every imaginable new attraction in and I still, probably even more so, will not be able to afford to go anymore. I'm only one example of those that are totally unaffected by any new builds because in order to enjoy them one must be able to get through the gate.
Epic will certainly draw lots of guests... but the Disney fandom (and nostalgia) is strong and they'll show up for something like MSEP.
@MouseEarsMom33 this...
That’s my fear. Hotel rates for late 2025 at Universal are outrageous. I can only imagine what it will be with tickets. $7500 for a family of four at an Express Pass hotel for 4 nights with tickets?
On your first point, yup, I'm am very interested in seeing what happens to USF attendance. IOA will be fine with two high-quality recent coaster additions, and the "better" of the two parks. BUT, USF is in serious desperate need of help (and will be seeing help quicker than most people think)... but does benefit from "Epcot-syndrome" of being the park to host events and nostalgia to the "golden days" of the park. Universal is hoping Epic will "add" a a day for Universal, which is entirely possible, but I can also see a scenario where people just replace USF instead of adding a day.
