Mario and Nintendo chat from the original thread at 'Beyond Big Thunder Mountain' Blue Sky concept revealed for Magic Kingdom

[celluloid]

That is definitely possible but it isn't doing a billion.

Prepare to eat hat. Just in case.

Either way, it will have a series out of it for the next decade such as Minions. Which will have a new generation loving a version of it anyway.

 

[Touchdown]

Disney was not very good at it.

Even without the games, the merch alone makes billions a year. I think Uni and Nintendo have a good deal.
illumination is about to have their next Minions or close to it.

More because I suspect a Nintendo Animated Universe is coming, Mario, DK, Kirby, Zelda, Yoshi, Pokémon all can support their own films and lead up to a matchup film (Super Smash Bros.)

Ideally I would love to see a Metroid live action Sci/fi horror film, but I think that’s too risky at this time.

 

[celluloid]

More because I suspect a Nintendo Animated Universe is coming, Mario, DK, Kirby, Zelda, Yoshi, Pokémon all can support their own films and lead up to a matchup film (Super Smash Bros.)

Ideally I would love to see a Metroid live action Sci/fi horror film, but I think that’s too risky at this time.

Luigi's Mansion hit film so we can get a fun dark ride out of it.

 

[the_rich]

Prepare to eat hat. Just in case.

Either way, it will have a series out of it for the next decade such as Minions. Which will have a new generation loving a version of it anyway.

I think spiderverse will out gross it.

 

[celluloid]

I think spiderverse will out gross it.

Internationally too. Really? That is bold. I think across the spiderverse waited too long to outgross Mario.

Even The Grinch and Peter Rabbit outperformed The first Spiderverse.

 

[the_rich]

Internationally too. Really? That is bold. I think across the spiderverse waited too long to outgross Mario.

Yea, I go to the movies alot and there is always alot of buzz when the trailer plays. Plus the first one was so good that I think there's alot of goodwill there.

 

[the_rich]

Internationally too. Really? That is bold. I think across the spiderverse waited too long to outgross Mario.

Even The Grinch and Peter Rabbit outperformed The first Spiderverse.

I could of course be wrong but it doesn't look good based on the trailer. Pratts voice also doesn't do it for me.

 

[Touchdown]

I think spiderverse will out gross it.

Spiderverse is a summer film, The Little Mermaid comes out a week before it, Transformers the week after (pealing off its teen appeal) and Elemental the week after that. Mario opens April 7 and is the first family film to open since Puss and Boots in December and the next family film to come out is The Little Mermaid 6 weeks later. April 7 is Good Friday. It also has a month until Guardians 3 comes out so it can stay #1. Summer is getting harder and harder to spring a hit consistently, the competition is too stiff. Maverick is the exception rather then the rule.

 

[celluloid]

Yea, I go to the movies alot and there is always alot of buzz when the trailer plays. Plus the first one was so good that I think there's alot of goodwill there.

I have Regal Unlimited. The kids and adults I hear more about Mario than the Spidey 2 trailer, which is awfully boring. I hope the movie is as fun as the first.

The Sing 2 made far more than into the spiderverse and it came out in a turbulent covid time.

But I will save this conversation so if you have to eat hat it will be interesting. I don't know if it will reach a billion either but if any Animated movie this year does, that would be it.

 

[the_rich]

I have Regal Unlimited. The kids and adults I hear more about Mario than the Spidey 2 trailer, which is awfully boring. I hope the movie is as fun as the first.

The Sing 2 made far more than into the spiderverse and it came out in a turbulent covid time.

But I will save this conversation so if you have to eat hat it will be interesting. I don't know if it will reach a billion either but if any Animated movie this year does, that would be it.

I have amc a list.
It just doesn't look any good to me and to make a billion dollars requires repeat viewing. It's even more important when it's mostly kids tickets.

 

[celluloid]

I could of course be wrong but it doesn't look good based on the trailer. Pratts voice also doesn't do it for me.

I am not a fan of Pratt Mario either, but the domestic hype is stronger than that flaw, and it won't be Chris Pratt internationally. The thing will be far closer to a Billion than far.

 

[the_rich]

I am not a fan of Pratt Mario either, but the domestic hype is stronger than that flaw, and it won't be Chris Pratt internationally. The thing will be far closer to a Billion than far.

My prediction is 750. 250 domestic 500 international. Also depends on China. They've been punishing Hollywood lately.

 

[UNCgolf]

I have amc a list.
It just doesn't look any good to me and to make a billion dollars requires repeat viewing. It's even more important when it's mostly kids tickets.

I'm not sure kids are the main target audience -- if they are, it might be a mistake. I don't know many kids that really care much about Mario. It's nowhere near the top IP, even just among video games, for kids.

Now if the movie is good enough it can turn kids into fans (which is obviously what happens with most new IPs for kids), but I think the driving force for Mario film tickets might be the parents who played Mario games as kids and are taking their kids to see it.

 

[the_rich]

I'm not sure kids are the main target audience -- if they are, it might be a mistake. I don't know that many kids that care about Mario. It's nowhere near the top IP, even just among video games, for kids.

Now if the movie is good enough it can turn kids into fans, but I think the driving force for Mario film tickets might be the parents who played Mario games as kids.

I've played them as a kid and I really have no interest in it nor do any of my friends. Now that is an extremely small sample size but we shall see.

 

[Alanzo]

Sonic did $150MM domestic though its tail end was hurt by Covid (maybe $170MM domestic without Covid?)

I think Pratt Mario will do 300 domestic easy. My wife and I (millenials) were never gonna see sonic, but we might see a movie like mario.

 

[the_rich]

Sonic did $150MM domestic though its tail end was hurt by Covid (maybe $170MM domestic without Covid?)

I think Pratt Mario will do 300 domestic easy. My wife and I (millenials) were never gonna see sonic, but we might see a movie like mario.

See I thought sonic was fantastic and I was looking forward to seeing it.

 

[UNCgolf]

I've played them as a kid and I really have no interest in it nor do any of my friends. Now that is an extremely small sample size but we shall see.

I did too and also have no interest, but I'm sure there are plenty of people who do.

I agree with you that I'd be absolutely shocked to see it clear a billion, though.

 

[UNCgolf]

I’ve played at least some of every mainline Mario game starting from the first Mario Bros all the way through Odyssey and while he is iconic, he has always felt empty. There is no character there, no developed personality. Saying “Waahoo” or muttering an occasional phrase in a stereotypical Italian accent doesn’t form a “person”. It is all the other characters that do the story telling which is on purpose as Mario Is meant to be a vessel for the player. He might be wildly recognizable but I’m not so sure he is the draw some believe.

Maybe the movie starts to change that.

I don't think that's true only of Mario himself, but of basically all the Mario IP characters. There's little characterization at all, and most of the games don't have much of a story. There are a few exceptions, but the most successful Mario games have mainly been Mario Kart (which generally doesn't even hint at any kind of story) and Mario platformers, in which the story is usually "save Peach".

 

[the_rich]

I did too and also have no interest, but I'm sure there are plenty of people who do.

I agree with you that I'd be absolutely shocked to see it clear a billion, though.

I've been a part of a site called Hollywood stock exchange for about 20 years. It's like a regular stock market but all the stocks are movies. Right now it's at 216 million. It's usually pretty spot on.

 

[Touchdown]

I don't think that's true only of Mario himself, but of basically all the Mario IP characters. There's little characterization at all, and most of the games don't have much of a story. There are a few exceptions, but the most successful Mario games have mainly been Mario Kart (which generally doesn't even hint at any kind of story) and Mario platformers, in which the story is usually "save Peach".

It looks like the story for the movie is save Luigi so it’s going to be different. Peach is going to have more agency and train Mario how to be Mario, as well as (along with Mario) enlist the help of the Kongs.