'Lightyear' Coming Summer 2022

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Disney+ is losing money. That’s a fact.

Disney wants to get to Netflix level numbers by 2024 which is when they “expect to make a profit.” - but Netflix has stopped growing in subscribers. This model isn’t going to work.

Disney is the only company that has a chance (other than Netflix of course). But I think it’s a losing race. We shall see.
If you're talking about the entire catalog of content being produced for D+ plus everything the Studios is making that went to D+, sure I would agree its losing money in order to boost subs in the long run.

But if we're talking about JUST the content that went to D+ that has been talked about in this thread, no its not losing money.
 

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
If you're talking about the entire catalog of content being produced for D+ plus everything the Studios is making that went to D+, sure I would agree its losing money in order to boost subs in the long run.

But if we're talking about JUST the content that went to D+ that has been talked about in this thread, no its not losing money.
I’m talking about the fact that company thinks it will be profitable in 2024. You may think it is profitable but Disney doesn’t.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I’m talking about the fact that company thinks it will be profitable in 2024. You may think it is profitable but Disney doesn’t.
I don't think the service as a whole is profitable yet, I would agree with their timeline projections given current sub growth, end of FY2024.

But do I think it makes enough to throw a few $150-200M movies on it from time-to-time, yes.
 

MarvelCharacterNerd

Well-Known Member
Yep its good to use the real numbers, but using the $8 was just to show that Disney can make money on D+ even by sending $200M films to it. As we know Disney wants both D+ revenue and BO revenue, but will sacrifice BO revenue as needed for D+ revenue. :)
And I fully support that as I believe streaming is the future, not theatrical, which will become/is becoming like a concert experience - something people do once in a while as a splurge for something special, whereas they may listen to music all day every day on their mobile devices or in their cars for much cheaper.

And with that said, you can absolutely count me as someone who prefers the few bucks a month spent on streaming with all the repeat viewings I want and no people on their phones/talking/walking, etc. vs. spending a lot more for a single theatrical viewing which I haven't done since the pandemic hit and never plan to do again. Yes, it's hard to avoid spoilers, but it's a trade-off that works for me and my budget and for seeing the movies uninterrupted by others.
 

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
Yes Disney would love to ALSO get BO revenue, what company wouldn't, but they aren't hurting if they put a movie on D+ or if the BO is lackluster for a film like Lightyear. I mean just last quarter alone they made $19.2B in revenue, so they aren't hurting for money right now.
A big box office is more than just the dollars it brings in. As long as D+ maintains its subscriber base, of course they'll ok. But getting that big box office hit, nets you some very important things. Disney LOVES its merchandising. And there's nothing better than a box office hit to get the hype and awareness for your movie to sell that merch. There aren't that many stream only movies that hit that pop culture phenomenon status. And creating those phenomenons are what help your legacy and keep you relevant.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
A big box office is more than just the dollars it brings in. As long as D+ maintains its subscriber base, of course they'll ok. But getting that big box office hit, nets you some very important things. Disney LOVES its merchandising. And there's nothing better than a box office hit to get the hype and awareness for your movie to sell that merch. There aren't that many stream only movies that hit that pop culture phenomenon status. And creating those phenomenons are what help your legacy and keep you relevant.
I don't disagree that has been and will likely continue to be the model for the most part at least for the near term.

However we're in a paradigm shift, and you're going to see a more hybrid model in the medium term. I mentioned earlier in this thread that the music industry did this in the early 00s. You don't go out and buy a CD much any more, you stream that music digitally now on a service or buy the songs/album from places like iTunes. The same is happening right now with movies/tv. So longer terms going to the movies will end up being like going to a concert just like @Mousertainment just mentioned. It'll be an event, sort of like it was in the golden age of Hollywood.
 

doctornick

Well-Known Member

doctornick

Well-Known Member
I don't think the service as a whole is profitable yet, I would agree with their timeline projections given current sub growth, end of FY2024.

But do I think it makes enough to throw a few $150-200M movies on it from time-to-time, yes.
I still don't think that makes much sense. Why put any (theatrical level) film direct on D+? It was weird they did that for Turning Red and I think it would be odd to do it for anything that big - send it to theaters first, get some revenue from that, then put in on D+ later (personally I'd advocate for a 60 or even 90 day window but at least at the 45 day that they've set). I don't see the harm and you get upside of multiple sources for revenue. Does Disney think that large numbers of people are going to drop D+ because they can't see Turning Red until a few months after being in a theater?
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
What's interesting is that they are spending $32 billion on content for FY2022. That just seems insane and it's not clear to me at all where all that money is going. It feel like they should be having constant releases like multiple shows/movies a week for that amount of money more than they do now.
Well that $32B is across all their linear properties and streaming, not just D+. So for example a show like Grey's Anatomy cost $20-30M per season, that is part of that. So add up all Disney produced shows and movies across all the Disney release points like ABC, D+, FX, Hulu, ESPN+, etc not to mention the shows they produce via 20th TV for other channels like NBC and you can see it adds up.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I still don't think that makes much sense. Why put any (theatrical level) film direct on D+? It was weird they did that for Turning Red and I think it would be odd to do it for anything that big - send it to theaters first, get some revenue from that, then put in on D+ later (personally I'd advocate for a 60 or even 90 day window but at least at the 45 day that they've set). I don't see the harm and you get upside of multiple sources for revenue. Does Disney think that large numbers of people are going to drop D+ because they can't see Turning Red until a few months after being in a theater?
As I mentioned before, we know Disney wants both D+ revenue and BO revenue, but will sacrifice BO revenue as needed for D+ revenue.

Its a long term strategy, and its likely to work as more and more consumers change their habits like @Mousertainment
 

MarvelCharacterNerd

Well-Known Member
I'll add that while facing a likely/potential recession, any family of 2, 3 or more is going to look at the cost of 2, 3 or 4 movie tickets plus concessions as a $50-$100 night out (not counting cost of gas to get there) vs. turning on Disney+ for the evening and making their own snacks and make a pretty obvious decision. A recession could kill theaters more dead than the pandemic did.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I'll add that while facing a likely/potential recession, any family of 2, 3 or more is going to look at the cost of 2, 3 or 4 movie tickets plus concessions as a $50-$100 night out (not counting cost of gas to get there) vs. turning on Disney+ for the evening and making their own snacks and make a pretty obvious decision. A recession could kill theaters more dead than the pandemic did.
I would agree, as a potential recession looms you'll see families cut down on not only external entertainment but on the number of services they have. As @MisterPenguin has rightfully said Disney is positioning D+ to be the number 1 or number 2 streamer at the end of the streaming wars. So if at the end of the day consumers have only D+ and Netflix then that is a huge win for Disney.
 

tcool123

Well-Known Member
I would agree, as a potential recession looms you'll see families cut down on not only external entertainment but on the number of services they have. As @MisterPenguin has rightfully said Disney is positioning D+ to be the number 1 or number 2 streamer at the end of the streaming wars. So if at the end of the day consumers have only D+ and Netflix then that is a huge win for Disney.
I think the magic of the bundle comes into play here. D+ alongside Hulu and ESPN+ for the less than most of Netflix's plans is a very nice deal with a wide and varied content library, and much like Netflix covers a very wide range of content especially if Disney continues to pull whatever content they can from Netflix (and others) and port it over to Hulu/D+ to further bolster their strong lineup.
 

tcool123

Well-Known Member
On a side note, how about that legacy content that hasn’t made its way to the Plus yet? Are we just to assume movies like Johnny Tremaine and Something Wicked This Way Comes are a lost cause at this point??
Most confusingly to me will be Make Mine Music given its on the 60 animated features from WDAS. You would think at the very least it would be released piecemeal style with the noncontroversial shorts, but nope! I assume whatever is still in the vault may be to keep some subscriptions in the Disney Movie Club
 

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