Lightning Lane Premier Pass

[Leia'sMom]

So, for when it goes on sale at Disney World, people will have already bought their Lightning Lane multi pass in case there isn’t enough premium. Think people who buy premium just won’t care about the cost or they will let you upgrade or you just ride everything twice?

 

[mysto]

So, for when it goes on sale at Disney World, people will have already bought their Lightning Lane multi pass in case there isn’t enough premium. Think people who buy premium just won’t care about the cost or they will let you upgrade or you just ride everything twice?

I think both passes are available for purchase at the same instant. So a user would try to buy premier, then if it was sold out buy multi and start madly booking MP because that window also opens right then.

 

[larryz]

Must be a lot of wealthy people in Colorado?

There are -- Californians who sold the house for which they paid $150K to some sucker for $1.5 million, then paid $300K for their Foothills Ranchette™.

 

[larryz]

Seriously. Disney has told us today they currently require a huge spend to even unlock the privilege to spend $329 per person at the low end for an unscheduled one time use LL at each MK attraction.

This is never coming down to anything approximating Universal or affordable. I don’t know how much clearer they need to make this. This will never be beneficial to guests who cant or refuse to afford the current price.

Remember the Year(s) Of A Million Dreams? Remember the Dream FastPass, the lanyard holding a card with one break-away tab per FP ride?

Well, this is the current version, monetized for your vacation pleasure!

I'm guessing they were doing exit surveys back then, asking "How much would you pay for a Dream Fastpass if it were available for purchase?"

 

[osian]

Our staff also times waits - recall a couple of weeks ago we rode Peter Pan's Flight for 6 hours starting at Rope Drop.

Is there any reason why you use Peter Pan's Flight rather than Small World?

 

[epcotWSC]

That's another - and interesting - question:

When we have an actual wait time, what percent of the time is it lower than the posted? And what percent of the time is it higher?

When we have an actual:

• The average posted wait is 45 minutes
• 84% of the time the actual is lower than the posted wait, by ~14 minutes
• 13% of the time the actual is higher than the actual wait, by ~8 minutes
• 3% of the time it's exactly the actual wait

For years, I've noticed that the wait time is usually 15-20 minutes shorter than the posted time. If it's ever longer, it's probably due to the ride having problems. They likely do it to 1) Deter people from stacking up a ride that has seemingly shorter wait times or because people may completely skip a ride that they feel is not worth the wait, 2) because people are happy that the line moved more quickly than stated. They'd get more upset at the opposite.

 

[LSLS]

Our app has a feature that lets the user start a timer when they get in line, and stop the timer as they're about to board.

The timer has instructions for when to start timing, e.g., for Haunted Mansion, where it's not clear when the "wait" starts.

I'm sure there's noise in that data, just because people are human.

Our staff also times waits - recall a couple of weeks ago we rode Peter Pan's Flight for 6 hours starting at Rope Drop. And I generally have the most faith in those numbers.

Cool. And sorry, hope it didn't come across that I was questioning if the data is good (like you said, some noise is to be expected, I wouldn't question it like that at all). I was curious if it did exactly what you said here (which I did not know as far as the app), or if it was more someone self-reporting (i.e., I waited like 30 minutes around 11:00). My accuracy question was more a question of if you have data such as "This person waited 26 minutes at 11:14 AM" not "Is this data any good or useful."

I'll wait for JD to respond themself, but as a huge data nerd, I love the stats you are putting out there.

 

[lentesta]

Cool. And sorry, hope it didn't come across that I was questioning if the data is good (like you said, some noise is to be expected, I wouldn't question it like that at all). I was curious if it did exactly what you said here (which I did not know as far as the app), or if it was more someone self-reporting (i.e., I waited like 30 minutes around 11:00). My accuracy question was more a question of if you have data such as "This person waited 26 minutes at 11:14 AM" not "Is this data any good or useful."

I'll wait for JD to respond themself, but as a huge data nerd, I love the stats you are putting out there.

Thanks! Yeah, it's "This person submitted an actual wait time of XX at attraction Y at time of day Z."

I mentioned to JD that we attach to each wait time around 190 other pieces of data, like weather, school schedules, park ops, etc. Tons of metadata.

 

[lentesta]

Is there any reason why you use Peter Pan's Flight rather than Small World?

My sanity?

We're going through 10 rides in the MK to see how well different prediction methods match actual wait times. So it was important to get the ebb and flow of one ride, really well, as a start. With lots of focus on the first hour the park is open, since getting those decisions right is critical for success.

Green dots are actual wait times. I think I spent 5 or 6 hours in line that day, along with a couple of other staff.

The park opened at 8:30 for Early Entry.

In particular, we want to ensure our models reflect that initial rise at park open, the local maximum around 9 am, and then local minimum around 9:45 am.

If we can model that, the number-crunching part of the touring plan software will be able to exploit the local minimum. (And we use TSPLIB to do basic tests on the touring plan software for optimality. Lightning Lane makes it more complicated, but it's a start.)

 

[jaklgreen]

Money per hour/day. It costs money to read a book on a Disney cruise. Probably more than an AP parks day, even going hog on up charges.

Nothing to do with total annual spend, but per day. The reason it’s so to Disneys favour is exactly the perception that you are walking away with, how little extra you spent, because you already prespent it all. Likely to the tune of 500$/day at the low end.

Yeah, I know what you are trying to say, but that is not really how it works. Disney doesn't go to their shareholders and say "we made less money this year overall, but we made more "per hour". Come on.

 

[BrianLo]

Yeah, I know what you are trying to say, but that is not really how it works. Disney doesn't go to their shareholders and say "we made less money this year overall, but we made more "per hour". Come on.

Sure, in theory. But that’s not what is actually going on with Disney. I’m just explaining what is actually currently happening. Attendance softens, but margins are increasing. Because the margins are better when they extract more per hour from their guests.

Eventually there is a turning point where it recedes against their favour. Which we have long been speculating about for the better part of 15 years now.

 

[Leia'sMom]

I think both passes are available for purchase at the same instant. So a user would try to buy premier, then if it was sold out buy multi and start madly booking MP because that window also opens right then.

I meant this week. They should have gone on sale today for the 30th right?

 

[Tigger&Pooh]

I meant this week. They should have gone on sale today for the 30th right?

LLPP doesn't go on sale for WDW until 10/30, which is also the first day it can be used. It did start today at DL. The first week of eligible visitors won't get the full advanced purchase opportunity. Same thing happened when LLMP/LLSP launched.

 

[Ayla]

I meant this week. They should have gone on sale today for the 30th right?

No. They don't go on sale until the 30th.

 

[Leia'sMom]

Exactly my original point! I am guessing they will book lightning lane now and just book the premium and not worry about the cost.

 

[brettf22]

My sanity?

We're going through 10 rides in the MK to see how well different prediction methods match actual wait times. So it was important to get the ebb and flow of one ride, really well, as a start. With lots of focus on the first hour the park is open, since getting those decisions right is critical for success.

Green dots are actual wait times. I think I spent 5 or 6 hours in line that day, along with a couple of other staff.

View attachment 822056

The park opened at 8:30 for Early Entry.

In particular, we want to ensure our models reflect that initial rise at park open, the local maximum around 9 am, and then local minimum around 9:45 am.

If we can model that, the number-crunching part of the touring plan software will be able to exploit the local minimum. (And we use TSPLIB to do basic tests on the touring plan software for optimality. Lightning Lane makes it more complicated, but it's a start.)

I salute you and your staff, good sir. I loves me some data.

I bet you heard “Help me, Smee!” in your nightmares, though.

 

[JD80]

The one thing we have to consider is that Posted Wait Times (PWT) and Actual (Reported) Wait Times (AWT) are two different things. PWT is a forecast of how long you may have to wait and AWT is a specific measurement associated with the exact time you entered the queue.

One is actual and one is a forecast/prediction.

There are any number of reasons why PWT vs. AWT might not match - downtime, park events (parades, fireworks etc.) an influx of LL/VIP/DAS users, weather etc. Much like traffic on a highway, you can feel the ripple effects of rubbernecking for a long time after the accident has been cleared.

So comparing AWT vs PWT is a exercise in grading the WDW Ops team is on their forecasting abilities, not on how they can manipulate you in buying a LL.

 

[Splash4eva]

Remember the Year(s) Of A Million Dreams? Remember the Dream FastPass, the lanyard holding a card with one break-away tab per FP ride?

Well, this is the current version, monetized for your vacation pleasure!

I'm guessing they were doing exit surveys back then, asking "How much would you pay for a Dream Fastpass if it were available for purchase?"

I won one of those!!!

Felt like i hit the Disney Lottery

 

[Disgruntled Walt]

I bet you heard “Help me, Smee!” in your nightmares, though.

I do, and I probably haven't been on the ride since the early 2000s.

 

[Purduevian]

Can you summarize those numbers, if possible? I'd love to see the math.

He didn't really show any specific math, but here is what I gathered. He assumed a LLMP rough estimated price of $27 and a LLPP rough estimated price of $289.

His assumption was that Disney could make the same amount of money they stopped selling LLMP and only sold LLPP to ~9.3% of the current LLMP users.

This would help the standby line because in theory only ~10% of the people previously in the LL are still there meaning the rest of the ride capacity would allow standby to move much quicker.

I personally see a few flaws in his logic:
1) I don't think 10% of LLMP users would be willing to pay 10x the cost for LLPP
2) A LLMP probably averages 4 to 5 rides a day. A LLPP pass will get on more rides (especially at MK)
3) I do think there are people like me that will stop going all together if there isn't a "reasonable" skip the line service. This doesn't make up for their hotel, tickets, food, and merch sales.