MrPromey
Well-Known Member
If so, I bet there'll be an upcharge and he finds a way to work a "+" into the name of it!
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Lightning Lane Premier Pass
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Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
The fact that Disney is over estimating wait times is purely coincidental and not intentional at all.
I am sure Disney is working to solve the complex problem to properly calculate wait times and NOT doing it to incentivize folks to purchase LLMP, LLSP, LLPP.
Hmmm.
Gratz to BlogMikey...
forums.wdwmagic.com
Gratz to BlogMikey...
Rumor - WDW is considering a Universal-like Express Pass
https://blogmickey.com/2024/09/rumor-walt-disney-world-lightning-lane-premier-pass-universal-express-style-skip-the-line-offering/
lentesta
Premium Member
That's another - and interesting - question:
When we have an actual wait time, what percent of the time is it lower than the posted? And what percent of the time is it higher?
When we have an actual:
- The average posted wait is 45 minutes
- 84% of the time the actual is lower than the posted wait, by ~14 minutes
- 13% of the time the actual is higher than the actual wait, by ~8 minutes
- 3% of the time it's exactly the actual wait
Splash4eva
Well-Known Member
Which imo is virtually impossible to be wrong that much of a percentage when they have a ton of data to go by and adjust accordingly … and my guess is the only reason its longer is because of ride breakdowns/extended stoppages
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Wow! they are only correct 3 percent of the time!
I think Iger when he was a weatherman was right more of the time!
84 percent of the time when they are wrong, (coincidentally) they are wrong in a way that benefits them in two ways:
Folks looking at the wait times are more likely to purchase LL
Even folks who don't use LL, the actual standby wait time is lower than expected so they are happy.
Disney is sure lucky.
JD80
Well-Known Member
@lentesta I don't think you can correlate avg posted wait time and avg reported and deduct anything from it.
1) You have to correlate wait times at specific times.
2) Are you factoring posted waits at park open when they are estimated early in the day or after/during a storm etc? What kind of factor does update lag have on your data set?
3) How often are posted wait times adjusted? What the post interval of posted vs reported? Is one data set more refined than the other?
4) is there an inaccuracy coefficient to compensate for mistakenly reported data?
Instead could we measure the avg wait time of the 11am hour for both data sets?
1) You have to correlate wait times at specific times.
2) Are you factoring posted waits at park open when they are estimated early in the day or after/during a storm etc? What kind of factor does update lag have on your data set?
3) How often are posted wait times adjusted? What the post interval of posted vs reported? Is one data set more refined than the other?
4) is there an inaccuracy coefficient to compensate for mistakenly reported data?
Instead could we measure the avg wait time of the 11am hour for both data sets?
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
Yup. For the most part I can't blame them though. If people are willing to pay them no matter what, I think most businesses would drive it until the wheels fall off.
There's PLENTY of people here that defend Disney on that accusation. Personally it happened to us on all but one ride our whole trip. Not by just 5 or 10 minutes. The lowest was time was 15. My sister experienced the same thing. A 20min difference is huge from a perception standpoint. A 50min wait vs an hour and 10min is a big psychological difference. Everything I've seen points to it's no coincidence. Tinfoil hat? Maybe. But if it quacks like duck.
MrPromey
Well-Known Member
But this didn't start with G+, right?
that's been an anecdotal thing for as long as I can remember.
jaklgreen
Well-Known Member
I don't see it that way at all. Up until this year, I have had an AP for well over a decade so I would go to the parks longer and more often, spending a LOT more money that way than if I were just to take a week long cruise. Not only was I paying for the AP, but the hotel, food, whatever looked good in the gift shop, etc. When I cruise, I don't do excursions, I don't go to Palo or Remy, I don't drink alcohol, etc. I am one of the few cruisers that doesn't pay extra for anything on the ship. I like just being on the cruise and relaxing with a book. So they are NOT getting more money from me this way.
Indy_UK
Well-Known Member
Do we think there's any chance that enough people will pay for this new tier and they axe the cheaper one? Im sure I heard it's 1 in 10 guests need to pay for it to make the same income.
Even if it did then I can see the regular guests kicking off that somethings been taken away which would actually improve the experience for them
Even if it did then I can see the regular guests kicking off that somethings been taken away which would actually improve the experience for them
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Money per hour/day. It costs money to read a book on a Disney cruise. Probably more than an AP parks day, even going hog on up charges.
Nothing to do with total annual spend, but per day. The reason it’s so to Disneys favour is exactly the perception that you are walking away with, how little extra you spent, because you already prespent it all. Likely to the tune of 500$/day at the low end.
lentesta
Premium Member
OK, so I'm not throwing stuff against the wall, come up with a process you'd be happy with, and I'll implement it. DMs are open, as the kids say.
Splash4eva
Well-Known Member
I think if enough people pay for it where the “limited” amount internally is sold out they may add some slots and remove them from the cheaper version. This is nothing more than a paid version of DAS w/o the waiting. Im curious to see how they plan on handling an initial rush in the morning when the majority of people who paid for this all rush to the same ride IE SDD in HS … my guess is the pre books at the opening will become very scarce if this happens to ease that rush
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
I can see enough guests buying it. I know many would hate it if the cheaper version went away but just having the premier pass would make things a lot less complicated.
People here may not find it complicated to use multi pass LL but your average guest does.
LSLS
Well-Known Member
I'd guess what they are looking for is a direct correlation of wait time posted vs. actual wait time. How time accurate is your data (i.e., do you know the actual time someone got in line vs. got off, or just approximate)? I personally would be interested to see how long someone waited vs. the posted wait time when they got off the ride. I think one of the things JD is pointing out that is fair is if someone gets in line with a bunch of others, the wait time may not have caught up. NOW, my personal experience, the opposite actually happened (we waited shorter in line than posted, and the posted wait time was higher when we got off), so it'd be interesting to see if they are adjusting, or it's just best guess.
Not to bring this to a Disney vs. other parks debate again, but I've found regional parks to have pretty decent accuracy when we have visited (posted 30 minutes, they were off the ride in like 36 minutes. Posted 45, they were on it almost right on). I have a hard time believing that Cedar Point, who don't have magic bands, and allow their fast passes to get on at any time, as many times as they want, can be accurate more than Disney.
John park hopper
Well-Known Member
Call me skeptical but Bob has lied once to often so I am more inclined to believe wait times are inflated to make people purchase their LL garbage
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nickys
Premium Member
@lentesta gets his times from 2 sources. His own Touring Plans staff and from the users of their wait times app.
The latter have a vested interest in the times being accurate; they want accurate wait times to help them plan their day. They input the time they get in line and the time they get on the ride. Of those 2 times, the finish time is the one that might get forgotten for a minute or two after. But in general they are a pretty conscientious bunch!
The TP staff also have a vested interest in accurate times, and Len is the best person to comment on their procedures. And also how many “Liners” submit times to the app.
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lentesta
Premium Member
Our app has a feature that lets the user start a timer when they get in line, and stop the timer as they're about to board.
The timer has instructions for when to start timing, e.g., for Haunted Mansion, where it's not clear when the "wait" starts.
I'm sure there's noise in that data, just because people are human.
Our staff also times waits - recall a couple of weeks ago we rode Peter Pan's Flight for 6 hours starting at Rope Drop. And I generally have the most faith in those numbers.
Contestants on the Price is Right have to guess the retail price WITHOUT GOING OVER. A dollar over is probably going to be the closest but you lose.
Guests will not be happy if they consistently wait longer then the posted time. The numbers should skew toward a lower wait most of the time, maybe 80%
Wait times within an hour of park closing need to ignored. Not updating wait times, leaving them high, is an acceptable alternative to closing the line early so the attraction doesn't run for hours past park close
.
Guests will not be happy if they consistently wait longer then the posted time. The numbers should skew toward a lower wait most of the time, maybe 80%
Wait times within an hour of park closing need to ignored. Not updating wait times, leaving them high, is an acceptable alternative to closing the line early so the attraction doesn't run for hours past park close
.